Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[SpurMeUp]

You're still not getting it - please bear with me while I step you through it. I'll speed things up a little by assuming some of your answers below so please tell me if they don't represent your opinion.

Are there extra language barriers to buying from China that are not there when buying from France or Germany (however marginal)? Yes
Do deliveries from China often take longer (assuming all other things equal such as lead times)? Yes
Is there an increased risk (however marginal) of buying things from China due to the distance? Yes

So why do so many people buy so much from China?

Who's is not getting it, when you try and argue against Oxford Professors and economists, auditors like PwC...and just plain old common sense. We don't produce goods like China do. The gravity model accounts for the size of the market too. Would we trade more with China if we were local - yes. Do we trade most with the EU because they are local - yes. Will we have more exports to non-EU nations because of brexit - no one can outline why we would.

 

[scaramanga]

Who's is not getting it, when you try and argue against Oxford Professors and economists, auditors like PwC...and just plain old common sense. We don't produce goods like China do. The gravity model accounts for the size of the market too. Would we trade more with China if we were local - yes. Do we trade most with the EU because they are local - yes. Will we have more exports to non-EU nations because of brexit - no one can outline why we would.

I'm not sure why you're so unable to answer simple questions - have you considered a career in politics?

Why do people buy so much from China? Go on, it's not that tough.....

 

[scaramanga]

I can see a vote of no confidence passing, but then vote of confidence in the new (temp) gov failing.
Which I believe automatically triggers a GE. (There might be one more stage after, can't quite remember)

The only way a no confidence vote can squeeze an election in before the deadline would be if they can agree on a new PM. Otherwise Johnson gets to set the date and would obviously set it for November.

If Corbyn tries and fails for his 14 days to get the confidence of the Commons, then it will be too late.

The only way this works is if Corbyn resigns or is forced out by someone less unpalatable to all the centrists and conservatives he needs. For example:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1161890301126074368

 

[SpurMeUp]

I'm not sure why you're so unable to answer simple questions - have you considered a career in politics?

Why do people buy so much from China? Go on, it's not that tough.....

Trade will be affected by all sorts of changing variables. China's spurt into cheap production means it has been supplying the world with cheap goods. China's wages and low costs are variables (but Chinas wages are now increasing).

Currency value, trade agreements etc etc are all variables that will alter and affect trade. What is not a changable variable is distance. That always has an affect on trade. And the data from PwC suggests distance is more important to UK trade than ever before.

What you've failed to do is outline how the UK would grow exports to outside the EU. China exploded its exports with government intervention, low wages etc etc How the UK would increae exports negating the issues with trade distance - as we'd have to trade more with non-EU nations - is obviously not clear to you either.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I can see a vote of no confidence passing, but then vote of confidence in the new (temp) gov failing.
Which I believe automatically triggers a GE. (There might be one more stage after, can't quite remember)

The government get 2 week to try and re-establish confidence between the first vote and the opposition's attempt

And then there has to be 6 weeks before a GE.

That why a GE will be after Brexit, unless the government actively does something

 

[scaramanga]

Trade will be affected by all sorts of variables that change. China's spurt into cheap production means it has been supplying the world with the cheap goods. China's wages and low costs are variables. Chinas wages are not increasing.

Currency value, trade agreements etc etc are all variables that will alter and affect trade. What is not a changable variable is distance. That always has an affect on trade. And the data from PwC suggests distance is more important to the UK than ever.

What you've failed to do is outline how the UK would grow exports to outside the EU. China exploded its exports with government intervention, low wages etc etc How the UK would increae exports negating the issues with trade distance - as we'd have to trade more with non-EU nations - is obviously not clear to you either.

OK, so we've reached the point where, in a modern and global market, consumers and businesses are heavily driven by price. That's good, you're making progress. We can also see from the same evidence, that often they are willing to purchase from further away in order to ensure those low prices.

So the next stage is to ask yourself (or allow me to) what is it that enables China to sell to the world that, say, Germany cannot replicate. You've touched on one already - the cost of employment. That would be an excellent start to leaving the EU - costs of employment have risen significantly in the EU. Another unique factor in Chinese success is low regulation on businesses - something impossible from inside the EU. After leaving, we will be in the perfect position to reduce the cost of regulation and to allow businesses to sell at competitive prices around the globe. Thirdly, by trading at (and often below) WTO tariff levels, we will be able to sell goods without any external influence increasing prices. Yet another way of undercutting the competition and increasing UK exports.

So we've established that we can compete with, and take business from, those within the EU with a more expensive cost model. That's good, now let's lead on to other drivers of purchasing decisions.

I like wine but I don't consider my tastes to be particularly experimental. The vast majority of my wine comes from France, and most of that is from Bordeaux or Burgundy. If I lived in the US, Japan, or anywhere else, my wine would still come from France. Most of my clothes come from Italy, France or the UK. Again, no matter where I lived, I would be buying those same clothes from the same places. I'll also add that I've heard some fairly solid rumours that some of these designers are having clothes made in Eastern Europe and the Far East. I assume you don't need me to explain why they would do that. My car is from Italy - that wouldn't change. I wouldn't drive a Japanese car if I lived there and I sure as fudge wouldn't drive an American car no matter where I lived.

So millions of people in both their personal capacity and the corporate world choose to buy from places because they're the cheapest and they choose to buy from places because they're the best. Unless you're proposing some kind of permanent block on all trading with the EU, people wanting to buy from places near to them will still be able to do so.

 

[SpurMeUp]

OK, so we've reached the point where, in a modern and global market, consumers and businesses are heavily driven by price. That's good, you're making progress. We can also see from the same evidence, that often they are willing to purchase from further away in order to ensure those low prices.

So the next stage is to ask yourself (or allow me to) what is it that enables China to sell to the world that, say, Germany cannot replicate. You've touched on one already - the cost of employment. That would be an excellent start to leaving the EU - costs of employment have risen significantly in the EU. Another unique factor in Chinese success is low regulation on businesses - something impossible from inside the EU. After leaving, we will be in the perfect position to reduce the cost of regulation and to allow businesses to sell at competitive prices around the globe. Thirdly, by trading at (and often below) WTO tariff levels, we will be able to sell goods without any external influence increasing prices. Yet another way of undercutting the competition and increasing UK exports.

So we've established that we can compete with, and take business from, those within the EU with a more expensive cost model. That's good, now let's lead on to other drivers of purchasing decisions.

I like wine but I don't consider my tastes to be particularly experimental. The vast majority of my wine comes from France, and most of that is from Bordeaux or Burgundy. If I lived in the US, Japan, or anywhere else, my wine would still come from France. Most of my clothes come from Italy, France or the UK. Again, no matter where I lived, I would be buying those same clothes from the same places. I'll also add that I've heard some fairly solid rumours that some of these designers are having clothes made in Eastern Europe and the Far East. I assume you don't need me to explain why they would do that. My car is from Italy - that wouldn't change. I wouldn't drive a Japanese car if I lived there and I sure as fudge wouldn't drive an American car no matter where I lived.

So millions of people in both their personal capacity and the corporate world choose to buy from places because they're the cheapest and they choose to buy from places because they're the best. Unless you're proposing some kind of permanent block on all trading with the EU, people wanting to buy from places near to them will still be able to do so.

Condescension doesn't cover up you being wrong.

You've outlined global trade well done. It does not change the emperical fact that countries trade most with their neighbouring countries. There will be all sorts of complexities, variables, and exceptions but take the data as a generalistion and the picture is crystal clear - distance negatively impacts trade. If you can't accept that because of the Telegraph-Brexit narrative or it doesn't fit with your world view, that is simply you ignoring the data, and all sane academics from Oxford professors to respected academics in the US. Ignoring PwC research and even rational business people in the Tory party (which used to be the party of business). That makes you a follower of belief, not science. A follower of the wichcraft of Brexit and the Grand Wizard Boris.

And still you can not name one law we'd change post brexit that would lead to more exports for the UK as you initially claimed. I don't have anything more to say. You've proven to me that the claim is pie in the sky. It is not backed by any logic.

 

[scaramanga]

Condescension doesn't cover up you being wrong.

But it does a very good job of demonstrating how slowly one has to take these steps to bring you along.

You've outlined global trade well done. It does not change the emperical fact that countries trade most with their neighbouring countries. There will be all sorts of complexities, variables, and exceptions but take the data as a generalistion and the picture is crystal clear - distance negatively impacts trade. If you can't accept that because of the Telegraph-Brexit narrative or it doesn't fit with your world view, that is simply you ignoring the data, and all sane academics from Oxford professors to respected academics in the US. Ignoring PwC research and even rational business people in the Tory party (which used to be the party of business). That makes you a follower of belief, not science. A follower of the wichcraft of Brexit and the Grand Wizard Boris.

Theory, theory, theory. Yet, every single day, in their billions, people from all over the world trade with others all over the world. They do it successfully, repeatedly and by choice again, and again, and again. Yet you seem to think this isn't possible. China's largest trading partner is the US - not because of distance but because there a huge numbers of people in the US who want to buy from China. We're a heavily service based economy. One of the reasons London became the world's financial hub in the first place is because it's so far from the US and Japan. Being roughly central to both time zones was a massive benefit.

Forget the theory and look at what happens in the real world.

CAnd still you can not name one law we'd change post brexit that would lead to more exports for the UK as you initially claimed. I don't have anything more to say. You've proven to me that the claim is pie in the sky. It is not backed by any logic.

I'm not in the habit of repeating myself when it matters - even less so when someone is playing the troll. I don't believe for one second you have the mental capacity to type a sentence but not to remember us having that exact discussion a few weeks ago in this thread.

 

[SpurMeUp]

You can tell when someone is losing an argument when they resort to insults.

The Gravity model of economics is not only theory, as Professor Venables of Oxford Uni puts it:

‘It is not a theory or model or law, but a fact.’ The negative effect of distance on trade is enormous.

The real world is precisely what shows the Gravity model to be correct. Data from all over the world confirms it. You mentioned China and we looked at who China trades with. Despite it being exceptional - the factory of the world - China still has disproportionate trade with countries close to it.

Have to hand it to you for ringing out an argument even when you are wrong. You would get a gold medal in the disciple. But it is futile; pig headedness and condescension doesn't change the hard data. At least go and find an example of EU bio-tech development law and elevate your argument.

 

[parklane1]

this can't work without Corbyn, it also can't work with Corbyn

There was a lot of hope around when he was voted as Labour leader ( time for a change etc,etc). However he has turned out to be a real nutter.

 

[Craig_J]

You can tell when someone is losing an argument when they resort to insults.

The Gravity model of economics is not only theory, as Professor Venables of Oxford Uni puts it:

‘It is not a theory or model or law, but a fact.’ The negative effect of distance on trade is enormous.

The real world is precisely what shows the Gravity model to be correct. Data from all over the world confirms it. You mentioned China and we looked at who China trades with. Despite it being exceptional - the factory of the world - China still has disproportionate trade with countries close to it.

Have to hand it to you for ringing out an argument even when you are wrong. You would get a gold medal in the disciple. But it is futile; pig headedness and condescension doesn't change the hard data. At least go and find an example of EU bio-tech development law and elevate your argument.

The gravity model will always be a fact because it's just natural.

If you want to borrow a bag of sugar you do it from your next door neighbour. You don't do it from the person who lives on the opposite of the globe from you. Not only is it more expensive, not only would it take longer to receive it, not only would it take you considerable time to get there, but you wouldn't care enough to even bother in the first place.

If you want to buy fruit and veg, you go to your local (super)market. No one ever travels out of town to do so. If you knew someone in the next town could offer you a nicer type of Apple for 10 pence per kilo cheaper - who cares?

 

[scaramanga]

The gravity model will always be a fact because it's just natural.

If you want to borrow a bag of sugar you do it from your next door neighbour. You don't do it from the person who lives on the opposite of the globe from you. Not only is it more expensive, not only would it take longer to receive it, not only would it take you considerable time to get there, but you wouldn't care enough to even bother in the first place.

If you want to buy fruit and veg, you go to your local (super)market. No one ever travels out of town to do so. If you knew someone in the next town could offer you a nicer type of Apple for 10 pence per kilo cheaper - who cares?

Most of what I buy from China is neither more expensive nor slower, otherwise I wouldn't buy from there

 

[scaramanga]

"Pretty please, just put me in charge while I sort out this pesky trade dispute. I promise, promise, promise to give back power as soon as I'm done with it.

Btw, does anyone know of a really efficient way of getting rid of Jews?"

EDIT: Edited so that you can all see my elite photoshop skillz.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The gravity model will always be a fact because it's just natural.

If you want to borrow a bag of sugar you do it from your next door neighbour. You don't do it from the person who lives on the opposite of the globe from you. Not only is it more expensive, not only would it take longer to receive it, not only would it take you considerable time to get there, but you wouldn't care enough to even bother in the first place.

If you want to buy fruit and veg, you go to your local (super)market. No one ever travels out of town to do so. If you knew someone in the next town could offer you a nicer type of Apple for 10 pence per kilo cheaper - who cares?

A bag of sugar and purchases you need(/want) to make are hardly the same thing.

It would be ridiculous to travel anywhere other than the neighbours for a bag of sugar.

But if you are ordering an item whatever that may be, chances are its online, and chances are - be it from Germany/China/wherever you see little difference other than delivery time.

Which isnt a problem to wait if you feel the product offers value.


Interestingly, the fruit and veg from your supermarket - particularly out of season - is far from locally sourced.


I dont know that I agree completely with Scara here, but I do agree distance is far less a barrier to trade than people seem to think. There is already global infrastructure in place to facilitate trade. And as he says, theres already large scale trade happening over distance....

 

[Rorschach]

The Chinese stuff you buy on eBay can be cheaper in my experience but is usually much poorer quality, generally speaking. The postage is subsidised by the state as far as I know but can still take up to a couple of months to arrive. The comparable quality stuff seems the same price more or less. For component parts though, the quality and lead-time for delivery would be a significant issue. Zero good to the just in time production line used in the British car industry, for example. If you build your stuff with tat then it will be tat.

 

[scaramanga]

The Chinese stuff you buy on eBay can be cheaper in my experience but is usually much poorer quality, generally speaking. The postage is subsidised by the state as far as I know but can still take up to a couple of months to arrive. The comparable quality stuff seems the same price more or less. For component parts though, the quality and lead-time for delivery would be a significant issue. Zero good to the just in time production line used in the British car industry, for example. If you build your stuff with tat then it will be tat.

We operate on a JIT system and our suppliers are all over the place. In fact, the only one we needed to arrange warehousing in the UK for are the ones in Italy because supply is so unreliable.

One of our major customers gets their component parts and plenty of steel tube for forming from China. I don't know of any business that decides on day 0 they need a part, sources it on day 1, receives it on day 2/3/4 and then starts all over again. What tends to happen is that someone will decide they need x parts per y space of time and enters into a contract with a supplier (no matter where they are in the world) to supply at that rate on that timescale. That works perfectly well for our customers and perfectly well for us.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The Chinese stuff you buy on eBay can be cheaper in my experience but is usually much poorer quality, generally speaking. The postage is subsidised by the state as far as I know but can still take up to a couple of months to arrive. The comparable quality stuff seems the same price more or less. For component parts though, the quality and lead-time for delivery would be a significant issue. Zero good to the just in time production line used in the British car industry, for example. If you build your stuff with tat then it will be tat.

Obviously an n=1 example, but Ive got a Chinese fitness tracker, a Xiaomi Mi Band 4. I had the Mi Band 2 and this is a significant upgrade. It matches a Fitbit for pretty much everything and retails at £35.

It is a quality bit of kit, not tacky or cheap in the least.

I got it on Amazon 2 days after release. There were plenty of China based suppliers with a 10 day delivery time, but I found one that was on Prime for a couple of pounds extra.

Clearly they had managed to get some delivered and warehoused here in time for release, and as a customer I was willing to pay a nominal amount to get it sooner than otherwise available (and honestly at 2 weeks its not bad really).

Im aware there are things that take forever to arrive from China, but its not really a universal truth. And I do think were there a greater emphasis on the UK buying from China then those routes would speed up some as well.

 

[DTA]

Most of what I buy from China is neither more expensive nor slower, otherwise I wouldn't buy from there

The fact that you are using China as an example is mind boggling.

You can't compete with China in terms of cost of imployment. Do you have any idea how their per capita GDP compares to ours?

China also offer massive state subsidies to various industries. You up for that here?

Come back with an example of a country with similar per Capita GDP to ours and while your at it an economy and political system of similar ilk.

 

[scaramanga]

The fact that you are using China as an example is mind boggling.

You can't compete with China in terms of cost of imployment. Do you have any idea how their per capita GDP compares to ours?

China also offer massive state subsidies to various industries. You up for that here?

Come back with an example of a country with similar per Capita GDP to ours and while your at it an economy and political system of similar ilk.

US, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia. All of those places are regularly cheaper, faster and at least as good as European suppliers.

Not that that's even vaguely relevant. I don't propose, and nor do we need to be cheaper than China. We just need to be cheaper than our nearest competition - the EU. Steal a significant amount of trade from them and we will be far better off. It's like running away from a tiger - you don't need to be faster than the tiger, just faster than the person you trip up.

 

[DTA]

US, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia. All of those places are regularly cheaper, faster and at least as good as European suppliers.

Not that that's even vaguely relevant. I don't propose, and nor do we need to be cheaper than China. We just need to be cheaper than our nearest competition - the EU. Steal a significant amount of trade from them and we will be far better off. It's like running away from a tiger - you don't need to be faster than the tiger, just faster than the person you trip up.

And all those places I believe (not checked) trade the most with their neighbours. Which was the original point. China is the exception because of their hybrid economy and low per capita income.

Is that not correct?