18th place? 30pts? No chance I'd say. Will be between 35pts to 38pts. Regardless he needs to be aiming for 40pts and that means he has 25 games to get 36pts. Brings to mind a famous scene from Jaws where Quint works out that Hooper intends to go into the shark cage at some point, "Fairwell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies..." :lol:
Last season it took 37 points to stay up, but IMO you'll be comfortable with 35 this year. Win a few against the other teams down there and you've got a great chance.