*** OMT: Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool ***

[Finney Is Back]

Pick plays aren't about contact, they're about blocking markers.

The level of contact is irrelevant, because the only way Dier can continue to follow Firminho is to move Henderson out of the way. We all know that would have led to a pelanty.

The only thing Dier can do at that point is ensure the ref can see the block. We have to assume referees will at least attempt to perform their roles - in this case he failed.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. I think if that was (say) VVD, he would stay up, stay somewhere near Firminho and at least ensure that he didn’t have a completely free header. Fingers crossed Jose will be allowed to complete his Tottenham team with at least one real top class centre back signing. I think we’ve then no excuse not to win trophies.

 

[Finney Is Back]

Depends what you mean by best team i suppose.

Not like their chances were carved out clear cut chances either. A corner (we had one of those) and a heavy deflation from a block.

They played "better" in the first half especially in terms of having the ball, looking dangerous throughout. But we played better in terms of quality chances we got to. Yes some of them were "lucky" or down to poor defending, but that's often the case with chances.

I agree that I hope we develop more ways to play, particularly in games not against the bigger teams. Some positive signs from the first half against Palace, the Saudi Sportswashing Machine game etc, but doing that more consistently would improve us no doubt.

That’s the thing, you are never going to carve out clear chances against teams that play such a deep defensive line (unless their defenders are absolutely rubbish). What was the XG for the game by the way? (I haven’t seen it so don’t know).

Palace actually concerned me somewhat as we seemed to quickly go to low block as soon as we went 1-0 up.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

That’s the thing, you are never going to carve out clear chances against teams that play such a deep defensive line (unless their defenders are absolutely rubbish). What was the XG for the game by the way? (I haven’t seen it so don’t know).

Palace actually concerned me somewhat as we seemed to quickly go to low block as soon as we went 1-0 up.

Palace deserve credit though as I think the way they played gets ignored to compensate for how we played. Mid tier teams this season are capable and able to take points of so called better teams. Villa smashed pool for example. It will happen more and more
We had a higher Xg than pool and also had 4 big chances to their 0 for what’s that worth
Palace had a higher Xg than us though

 

[braineclipse]

That’s the thing, you are never going to carve out clear chances against teams that play such a deep defensive line (unless their defenders are absolutely rubbish). What was the XG for the game by the way? (I haven’t seen it so don’t know).

Palace actually concerned me somewhat as we seemed to quickly go to low block as soon as we went 1-0 up.

But I think there's definitely an argument at least for saying that the team that created the better chances played "better".

I think we were pushed deep by Palace more than we chose to play that way, but either way it's a concern and an are for improvement.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Who is this Lamela that you speak of?

Most players are upgradable. I think far easier and more pressing at the moment to upgrade at centre back. If wanting somebody in the squad to play instead of Bergwijn then I don’t think that person will be Bale, not under Mourinno anyway. What he is asking Bergwijn to do is very specific (and oriented towards defence and transition).

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said re Bergwijn, I just wish he would give us more than he is giving us now going forward as our attacks often break down when he gets the ball in the other team’s half and he’s not creating much, if anything.

 

[thfcsteff]

He gets a teeny bit of contact and goes to ground, it was incredibly weak defending and if we want to be successful under Mourinho and this system then we need better.

It also looks to me as though Dier falls over the wrong way... shouldn’t he be falling towards Firminho instead of away from him? It suggests to me that he is on the wrong foot and not in position to actually really tracking his run (which is why I think he throws himself to the floor).

I think you're wrong on both counts, plus you have him tagged as marking the wrong player.
He is looking to cover Williams.
By being nudged out of that, it left Toby with 2 on 1. Kane is the spare man and he is caught flat-footed because he has not realized Dier was blocked off.
Henderson's nudge is sharp and would easily put a player over if they're on their toes and not "planted" to the floor. Dier, to me, looks like he's on his toes to make the move to cover Williams.He is absolutely in position to track the run. Why on earth do you think a seasoned, die-hard and tough pro like Dier, who does not ever shirk responsibility, would "throw himself to the floor?" Dier did nothing wrong at all. He was fouled.

 

[braineclipse]

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said re Bergwijn, I just wish he would give us more than he is giving us now going forward as our attacks often break down when he gets the ball in the other team’s half and he’s not creating much, if anything.

6 starts in the PL so far this season after injury/fitness issues. Quite a few of them in very difficult games. 14 starts in the PL in total for us. Less than a year since he came arrived. Only 23 years old.

I think there's every reason to believe that there's more to come from him.

 

[90sSpursBook]

Just some stats to reflect on re earlier conversations:

This season we have faced 101 corners (in all 23 games) and have conceded twice from them (the other one was against Plovdiv). We have of course also conceded goals from set pieces - excluding penalties - Everton (h), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (h) - led to the penalty award - West Ham (h) - second phase/ball; Crystal Palace (a) - all of which came from our right back position.

I'm not sure there's anything endemically flawed about our actual defending of these situations as once you get beneath face value you can consider that the Saudi Sportswashing Machine penalty award was utterly absurd and wouldn't even be given now; the West Ham one we dealt with the initial cross; it was then the combination of Winks making a bad decision; a block off and then a 1/1000 shot that resulted in the goal.

What I don't have data to hand on is whether we concede more free kicks down our right side than left side and if so is this a reflection of teams wanting to expose some flaws and weaknesses on this side?

Wednesday night was the fourth game at Anfield in successive seasons that we've conceded a crucial goal in the 80th minute + and the 3rd in 4 occasions in the 90th minute +....

2017-18 - Salah scores in 91st minute to give Liverpool 2-1 lead (we would then go onto equalise through Kane penalty)
2018-19 - Alderweireld OG in stoppage time to give Liverpool 2-1 win.
2019-20 - Salah penalty in 83rd minute - Liverpool go ahead to win 2-1.
2020-21 - Firmino 90th Minute header to win 2-1.

I felt as though Wednesday's game saw a mix of Jose and Poch; the first half was all about Jose's organisation for a low-block and ruthless counter attacking; the second half was more akin to some of the previous battles with Liverpool under Poch where we grow into the game and seem to present some problems Liverpool not used to but fail to take big chances (think Kane pen miss in 2018; Sissoko 1 v1 in 2019 where Van Dijk encourages him to shoot! and even last season Sonny hit the post on the counter with score at 1-0 up).

Wednesday, like the previous seasons, saw us come away with a creditable defeat. On this occasion and specific to this moment the only important thing was getting the result and so it feels like a big chance missed and all in all a bit of a gutter.

I wonder whether the late goals are just a coincidence or created as something as a mental block now.....over the last few years I dont feel we've been too bad with late goals conceded (though accept there has been a few this season alone).

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Just some stats to reflect on re earlier conversations:

This season we have faced 101 corners (in all 23 games) and have conceded twice from them (the other one was against Plovdiv). We have of course also conceded goals from set pieces - excluding pelanties - Everton (h), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (h) - led to the pelanty award - West Ham (h) - second phase/ball; Crystal Palace (a) - all of which came from our right back position.

I'm not sure there's anything endemically flawed about our actual defending of these situations as once you get beneath face value you can consider that the Saudi Sportswashing Machine pelanty award was utterly absurd and wouldn't even be given now; the West Ham one we dealt with the initial cross; it was then the combination of Winks making a bad decision; a block off and then a 1/1000 shot that resulted in the goal.

What I don't have data to hand on is whether we concede more free kicks down our right side than left side and if so is this a reflection of teams wanting to expose some flaws and weaknesses on this side?

Wednesday night was the fourth game at Anfield in successive seasons that we've conceded a crucial goal in the 80th minute + and the 3rd in 4 occasions in the 90th minute +....

2017-18 - Salad scores in 91st minute to give Liverpool 2-1 lead (we would then go onto equalise through Kane pelanty)
2018-19 - Alderweireld OG in stoppage time to give Liverpool 2-1 win.
2019-20 - Salad pelanty in 83rd minute - Liverpool go ahead to win 2-1.
2020-21 - Firmino 90th Minute header to win 2-1.

I felt as though Wednesday's game saw a mix of Jose and Poch; the first half was all about Jose's organisation for a low-block and ruthless counter attacking; the second half was more akin to some of the previous battles with Liverpool under Poch where we grow into the game and seem to present some problems Liverpool not used to but fail to take big chances (think Kane pen miss in 2018; Sissoko 1 v1 in 2019 where Van Dijk encourages him to shoot! and even last season Sonny hit the post on the counter with score at 1-0 up).

Wednesday, like the previous seasons, saw us come away with a creditable defeat. On this occasion and specific to this moment the only important thing was getting the result and so it feels like a big chance missed and all in all a bit of a gutter.

I wonder whether the late goals are just a coincidence or created as something as a mental block now.....over the last few years I dont feel we've been too bad with late goals conceded (though accept there has been a few this season alone).

There have been more late goals this season than previous ones
I’ll try to find the article on it

 

[braineclipse]

Just some stats to reflect on re earlier conversations:

This season we have faced 101 corners (in all 23 games) and have conceded twice from them (the other one was against Plovdiv). We have of course also conceded goals from set pieces - excluding pelanties - Everton (h), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (h) - led to the pelanty award - West Ham (h) - second phase/ball; Crystal Palace (a) - all of which came from our right back position.

I'm not sure there's anything endemically flawed about our actual defending of these situations as once you get beneath face value you can consider that the Saudi Sportswashing Machine pelanty award was utterly absurd and wouldn't even be given now; the West Ham one we dealt with the initial cross; it was then the combination of Winks making a bad decision; a block off and then a 1/1000 shot that resulted in the goal.

What I don't have data to hand on is whether we concede more free kicks down our right side than left side and if so is this a reflection of teams wanting to expose some flaws and weaknesses on this side?

Wednesday night was the fourth game at Anfield in successive seasons that we've conceded a crucial goal in the 80th minute + and the 3rd in 4 occasions in the 90th minute +....

2017-18 - Salad scores in 91st minute to give Liverpool 2-1 lead (we would then go onto equalise through Kane pelanty)
2018-19 - Alderweireld OG in stoppage time to give Liverpool 2-1 win.
2019-20 - Salad pelanty in 83rd minute - Liverpool go ahead to win 2-1.
2020-21 - Firmino 90th Minute header to win 2-1.

I felt as though Wednesday's game saw a mix of Jose and Poch; the first half was all about Jose's organisation for a low-block and ruthless counter attacking; the second half was more akin to some of the previous battles with Liverpool under Poch where we grow into the game and seem to present some problems Liverpool not used to but fail to take big chances (think Kane pen miss in 2018; Sissoko 1 v1 in 2019 where Van Dijk encourages him to shoot! and even last season Sonny hit the post on the counter with score at 1-0 up).

Wednesday, like the previous seasons, saw us come away with a creditable defeat. On this occasion and specific to this moment the only important thing was getting the result and so it feels like a big chance missed and all in all a bit of a gutter.

I wonder whether the late goals are just a coincidence or created as something as a mental block now.....over the last few years I dont feel we've been too bad with late goals conceded (though accept there has been a few this season alone).

Excellent post, cheers. So you know if we've conceded more corners than the other top teams?

On the late goals I think there's some reason for concern. If that keeps going throughout the season it will obviously make it more difficult to achieve our aims.

However it's worth remembering that as stats are broken down like that you need a bigger sample size to get meaningful numbers. If we're looking at the last 10 minutes of games we're looking at only 130 minutes of football. Even if we're including added time we're probably only looking at around our less than 180 minutes of football, or two games worth.

xG from the last 10 minutes of games might paint a slightly better picture, but will still be limited.

I'm not sure there's a reason to believe that this trend of conceding late goals will continue.

 

[90sSpursBook]

I'm not sure about other teams...especially if considering all games (not just PL games).

However, we have scored 3 times from 109 corners - as a percentage that's 2.75% goal success from a corner whilst we concede from 1.98% faced. I'm sure we've discussed on here how corners are such low percentage opportunities yet there's always a surge of excitement and apprehension when watching! They should be really easy to defend - if, as we do, you bring everyone back you should have 11 v 6-8 (take out the corner taker, goalkeeper and at least one covering defender).

The significance of goals is always an important factor - we also conceded late v Southampton (through another nonsense handball penalty) but were 5-1 up at the time; equally IF Lanzini shot hits the bar and goes over then we wouldn't consider their first two late goals as having that much significance.

 

[90sSpursBook]

7 of the 12 goals we've conceded (PL only) this season have occurred in the 75 - 90+ minutes - that is 58% of goals conceded in the same 17% of the match which is reason for alarm especially as 4 of those goals have directly deprived us of points. The late So'ton penalty is the only one in this category that bore no relevance to the outcome.

I'm classifying a 'crucial' goal as one that is an equaliser or provides a lead though you could apply context to every goal depending on specific match and situation.

By contrast, of the 25 goals we have scored - 4 have occurred in 75 - 90+; 2 were crucial (Burnley and WBA).

Our most frequent game period to score is 0-15 - 7 goals which I'm sure must be huge

 

[Finney Is Back]

But I think there's definitely an argument at least for saying that the team that created the better chances played "better".

I think we were pushed deep by Palace more than we chose to play that way, but either way it's a concern and an are for improvement.

Palace deserve credit though as I think the way they played gets ignored to compensate for how we played. Mid tier teams this season are capable and able to take points of so called better teams. Villa smashed pool for example. It will happen more and more
We had a higher Xg than pool and also had 4 big chances to their 0 for what’s that worth
Palace had a higher Xg than us though

fair play. I am happy to be wrong here.

I just looked up the XG in terms of chances and find it strange that Bergwijn’s first chance was considered bigger than his second?.... it seemed the other way round to me?

xG of individual goals in LFC vs Spurs 2-1

1-0 Salah goal xG 0.10
1-1 Son goal xG 0.28
2-1 Firmino goal xG 0.12

Key notable chances and their xG in LFC THFC

11th minute Firmino header chance xG 0.04- saved by Lloris
21st minute Salah chance xG 0.09- at Lloris
29th minute Curtis Jones chance xG 0.10- saved by Lloris
41st minute Mane chance xG 0.07- at Lloris
46th minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.35- shoots wide
63rd minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.19- hits post
63rd minute Kane chance xG 0.44- from corner
67th minute Firmino chance xG 0.09- in space in box, but straight at Lloris
73rd minute Mane chance xG 0.06- lovely turn in box, but hits bar

 

[Bedfordspurs]

fair play. I am happy to be wrong here.

I just looked up the XG in terms of chances and find it strange that Bergwijn’s first chance was considered bigger than his second?.... it seemed the other way round to me?

xG of individual goals in LFC vs Spurs 2-1

1-0 Salad goal xG 0.10
1-1 Son goal xG 0.28
2-1 Firmino goal xG 0.12

Key notable chances and their xG in LFC THFC

11th minute Firmino header chance xG 0.04- saved by Lloris
21st minute Salad chance xG 0.09- at Lloris
29th minute Curtis Jones chance xG 0.10- saved by Lloris
41st minute Mane chance xG 0.07- at Lloris
46th minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.35- shoots wide
63rd minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.19- hits post
63rd minute Kane chance xG 0.44- from corner
67th minute Firmino chance xG 0.09- in space in box, but straight at Lloris
73rd minute Mane chance xG 0.06- lovely turn in box, but hits bar

Doesn’t that show the issue with Xg
But I guess it’s all down to if those chances are scored even if they look tough as being scored influences that data

 

[braineclipse]

7 of the 12 goals we've conceded (PL only) this season have occurred in the 75 - 90+ minutes - that is 58% of goals conceded in the same 17% of the match which is reason for alarm especially as 4 of those goals have directly deprived us of points. The late So'ton pelanty is the only one in this category that bore no relevance to the outcome.

I'm classifying a 'crucial' goal as one that is an equaliser or provides a lead though you could apply context to every goal depending on specific match and situation.

By contrast, of the 25 goals we have scored - 4 have occurred in 75 - 90+; 2 were crucial (Burnley and WBA).

Our most frequent game period to score is 0-15 - 7 goals which I'm sure must be huge

Have you seen any shots against or xG against stats broken down by period of the game. Would be interesting to see if we're conceding more chances than others in this period.

 

[braineclipse]

fair play. I am happy to be wrong here.

I just looked up the XG in terms of chances and find it strange that Bergwijn’s first chance was considered bigger than his second?.... it seemed the other way round to me?

xG of individual goals in LFC vs Spurs 2-1

1-0 Salad goal xG 0.10
1-1 Son goal xG 0.28
2-1 Firmino goal xG 0.12

Key notable chances and their xG in LFC THFC

11th minute Firmino header chance xG 0.04- saved by Lloris
21st minute Salad chance xG 0.09- at Lloris
29th minute Curtis Jones chance xG 0.10- saved by Lloris
41st minute Mane chance xG 0.07- at Lloris
46th minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.35- shoots wide
63rd minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.19- hits post
63rd minute Kane chance xG 0.44- from corner
67th minute Firmino chance xG 0.09- in space in box, but straight at Lloris
73rd minute Mane chance xG 0.06- lovely turn in box, but hits bar

xG doesn't take into account the pressure on the player taking the shot? At least not all xG models, not sure if it's true for all.

 

[scaramanga]

We’ll have to agree to disagree. I think if that was (say) VVD, he would stay up, stay somewhere near Firminho and at least ensure that he didn’t have a completely free header. Fingers crossed Jose will be allowed to complete his Tottenham team with at least one real top class centre back signing. I think we’ve then no excuse not to win trophies.

You're right, I do disagree. No defender to my knowledge can just run through a player - not without fouling.

Once Dier was blocked, he was never getting near Firminho, not even close. His only option was to highlight to the ref what had happened. Anyone doing their job brings that back for a free kick.

 

[Finney Is Back]

You're right, I do disagree. No defender to my knowledge can just run through a player - not without fouling.

Once Dier was blocked, he was never getting near Firminho, not even close. His only option was to highlight to the ref what had happened. Anyone doing their job brings that back for a free kick.

As I said before. It didn’t look like a free kick to me. I would be livid if we had a goal chalked off for that. I want it to be a shocking decision, I just don’t think it was....

I thought the Saudi Sportswashing Machine penalty and free kick that led to it were shocking decisions. I thought the free kick decision for the West Ham equaliser was a shocker. I thought the Brighton goal against us standing was a shocker and I also thought that the ref got the free kick decision wrong for Everton’s winner against us, this one though I think the ref and var official got right.

 

[Bishop]

fair play. I am happy to be wrong here.

I just looked up the XG in terms of chances and find it strange that Bergwijn’s first chance was considered bigger than his second?.... it seemed the other way round to me?

xG of individual goals in LFC vs Spurs 2-1

1-0 Salad goal xG 0.10
1-1 Son goal xG 0.28
2-1 Firmino goal xG 0.12

Key notable chances and their xG in LFC THFC

11th minute Firmino header chance xG 0.04- saved by Lloris
21st minute Salad chance xG 0.09- at Lloris
29th minute Curtis Jones chance xG 0.10- saved by Lloris
41st minute Mane chance xG 0.07- at Lloris
46th minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.35- shoots wide
63rd minute Bergwijn chance xG 0.19- hits post
63rd minute Kane chance xG 0.44- from corner
67th minute Firmino chance xG 0.09- in space in box, but straight at Lloris
73rd minute Mane chance xG 0.06- lovely turn in box, but hits bar

XG doesn't rate the chance based on the surrounding facts such as Bergwijn being under pressure and being challenged. Iirc it just looks at the position of the shot and how often chances are scored from that position. Presumably where he took the second chance from is a typically a more difficult position and fewer goals are scored from there.

 

[scaramanga]

XG doesn't rate the chance based on the surrounding facts such as Bergwijn being under pressure and being challenged. Iirc it just looks at the position of the shot and how often chances are scored from that position. Presumably where he took the second chance from is a typically a more difficult position and fewer goals are scored from there.

Depends where you get your xG from.

The data sourced from Statsbomb does.