CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW courtesy of the LONDON RACING CLUB, Kensington Forum Hotel
Sponsored by Sky Bet
Thursday, 1st March
The evening was once again chaired by Barry Faulkner who was joined on the panel by Charlie Morlock (Assistant Trainer to Nicky Henderson), Phil Smith(Head of Handicapping), Lee Mottershead (Racing Post Journalist), George Primarolo (Betfred) and the last minute replacement for the injured Mark Johnson, Declan Rix (Irish expert – Attheraces). A very balanced panel were able to attack each race from a variety of angles which made for an interesting evening which commenced with the Championship races, followed by the top Novice Hurdle and Chase contests, before finishing with a round-up of the remaining races.
CM – Charlie Morlock
PS – Phil Smith
LM – Lee Mottershead
GP – George Primarolo
DR – Declan Rix
CHAMPION HURDLE
PS: You need a 170+ rated performance to win, so the most likely horse to achieve that is Hurricane Fly but I would definitely look outside the first one in the betting. Binocular achieved his second highest career rating when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton and Zarkandar achieved a mark of (160) in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but he is going in the right direction and he is bound to come on for the run and will appreciate the fast pace.
CM: Binocular thrives on his racing and it was a blessing in disuse when Grandouet was ruled out at Wincanton. We never seriously considered running him until the day before. AP always says a run sharpens him up and he wasn’t fully prepared for his last run as he was 2lb above his usual racing weight. He will come on for that run and will have one good piece of work before the Festival. The wind-op has done him the world of good and AP said he hasn’t had this type of feel from the horse for a long time. Hurricane Fly however still remains the one to beat.
LM: I think Hurricane Fly will win the race, but there is no value at 4/6. Binocular is the value bet at 5/1 and he’ll go off a lot shorter on the day.
DR: Nothing can beat Hurricane Fly, he came back to life last time out, he’s still only eight and is physically at his peak. The each-way bet for me has to a Thousand Stars at 25/1; this is a silly price as he was 4th in the race last year.
GP: There is absolutely no value in Hurricane Fly – He is still a bit fragile and there are always question marks about his well-being. My each-way bet has to be Rock on Ruby at 14/1 as he loves Cheltenham and stays up the hill. Peddlers Cross is also interesting at 25/1 NR NO BET, if he doesn’t turn up you get your money back, if he does he will be nowhere near that price on the day.
*GM then offered any takers in the room Evens about Hurricane Fly.
CHAMPION CHASE
DR: It’s hard to look past Sizing Europe as he will appreciate the forecast good ground and acts on the track making him the one to beat. Big Zeb is a cracking each-way bet to nothing as he will also prefer the better going.
CM: We weren’t happy with Finian’s Rainbow earlier in the year and he was a little disappointing but he looks better now than when he went to Ascot. Sizing Europe is a great horse and the one to beat and for me our horse shouts Liverpool at me.
LM: Sizing Europe is a very solid hot favourite but I’m not keen at backing him at evens. The bet for me is Kauto Stone NR NO BET at 33/1 – he ran like a lunatic at Ascot and it was no surprise to see him fall in a hole and connections are contemplating a step back in trip.
PS: Of the four champions of last year Sizing Europe is the most bomb proof. I can’t see anything better in this year’s race from last year and he’s 11lb ahead of the next best in the ratings, so it surprises me that he’s not odds on. I agree with Lee that Kauto Stone represents good value at 33/1 NR NO BET.
GP: Sizing Europe has to win, there is absolutely nothing in the race and the evens is good value.
WORLD HURDLE
CM: The idea was to test the speed of Big Bucks before we got to Cheltenham but the owner chose not to. I can’t see him getting past Big Bucks as I don’t think he will outstay him. It’s been a weak division dominated by Big Bucks and I wouldn’t be backing Oscar Whiskey. The plan is to drop him in and try and do Big Bucks for toe, he’s very relaxed in his races so this won’t be a problem.
PS: We don’t know if Big Bucks is as good as he has been before because he simply hasn’t been tested, so we are unsure where he is at. Dynaste at 14/1 is the each-way bet in the race as he’s the only horse to have gotten near to Big Buck’s this season.
GP: It’s not a betting race so put your feet up, watch the race and enjoy it, Big Bucks will win.
LM: For just a few strides at both at Ascot and Cheltenham this season Ruby has begun to get anxious but he stays better than any other horse. Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars are the opposition as they have the speed to beat him but will they stay? Out of the two I think Thousand Stars will as he always finishes his races well and could cause an upset at 10/1 NR NO BET.
DR: Big Buck’s is the best horse in training for me but I’m going for Mourad. He’s been there and done it by placing in the race and was back to his best in beating Mikael D’Haguenet last time out.
GOLD CUP
LM: The statement released by Paul Nicholls was very negative and it sounds likely that he won’t run. Long Run is now the one to beat, he’s lacked the WOW factor this year but he didn’t jump at Haydock, laboured at Kempton, before travelling better at Newbury without overly impressing. Burton Port has come back a completely different horse but all the value has now gone and Synchronised could be interesting if it rains.
CM: We were really excited about Burton Port before his run in the Denman Chase, but we didn’t want to give him a tough race after such as long lay-off. He came back and seemed a lot faster and his work was exceptional but I wouldn’t be confident he could replicate this again so soon. We can’t put our finger on why Long Run hasn’t been as spectacular this year, however he was probably dossing in front at Newbury, his work has been good but not sparkling but he is still the one to beat for me.
GP: Diamond Harry’s had a wind-op and although he never seems to find anything he travels so well in his races, so if the operation has worked 33/1 could be great each-way value.
PS: Long Run was idling in front at Newbury and it was an ideal prep run. He improved 3lb from his prep run last year and I expect him to do the same again this year, which will make him the horse to beat. Midnight Chase has won round Cheltenham and I fancy him to make the places.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
LM: Prospect Wells looks very interesting, he has shown loads of speed and he shouldn’t have run in the Tolworth and the race wasn’t run to suit in the Ladbroke. He is crying out for a stiff 2m test on good ground and shouldn’t be 25/1.
CM: I’m not sure Simonsig will go for this race, there’s a big chance he will go for the Neptune. AP was very complimentary about Darlan after he fell at Newbury. He has schooled well since then and is in great form. He has experience in large fields and in races run at a true gallop, AP also says he will take all the beating. Don’t ignore Tetlami who is a very good horse and deserves his place but if I had to choose I would side with Darlan. I also like Donald McCain’s horse Cinders and Ashes – he’s a very tough horse.
DR: Midnight Game is the pick of the Irish runners for me – He is a son of Montjeu and I know Willie Mullins is very sweet on him and he will love good ground. I also like Tetlami who has won at the track and jumps well and there is plenty of value at 16/1.
PS: I also like Tetlami as he has won his previous race and his form is rock solid. The 2ndand 3rd horses in the race he won at Sandown both won next time out and the 2nd horse in the race he won at Kempton also won next time.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
GP: This isn’t a race for big prices with the winner normally coming from the first four in the betting. I like Boston Bob but it will be between him and Simonsig.
DR: Aupcharlie is interesting in this race, he was 3rd behind Cheltenian in last year’s bumper and he’s 50/1 and trust me he won’t be 50/1 if he lines up here.
CM: It is likely Simonsig will go for this race, although that isn’t gospel. He’s got bigger and stronger all year; he’s very pacy but stays really well. He emptied slightly up the run-in at Sandown but he was found not to be himself afterwards but we gave him a break a freshened him up before Kelso. I do also like Sous Les Cieux and I would rather back him at 12/1 than Simonsig at 3/1.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
LM: Saddler’s Risk is the one for me despite his defeat at Newbury. I know the Hobbs team are really keen on him and I think the stamina test provided on the new course at Cheltenham will suit him much better and 10/1 looks good value.
PS: Baby Mix is the top rated here but he looks more of an Aintree horse. Ranjaan interests me as he has been running in competitive handicaps, his form has been franked by Third Intention (Won the National Spirit Hurdle) and he is a horse going in the right direction.
ALBERTT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DR: Charles Byrne really like Sea of Thunder and trust me there is no shrewder man than him.
GP/PS: If Boston Bob turns up he wins.
CM: We don’t have anything that slow.