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Grealish

I have to say, De Ligt makes sense. Martial, Kovacic, Zaha all make sense on paper, Zaha the most simply because he is British. But in order to make any major signing, we have to shift for squad numbers. And we have to know they will fit our vibe and structure. I do not know anything about Martial beyond what I see, but he strikes me as a camper who will be unhappy unless he walks into the first 11, and plainly, Poch signs players to train. Can we REALLY "afford" to gamble on a player who might get the hump in the wrong way unless he is starting every week? I don't know mate, but I trust that lot down the Lane do...let's hope so anyway!

I must say...it sounds like Palace are linked with an awful lot of wingers last few days - couple of weeks. It’s almost like they are preparing for Zaha to potentially go.

Maybe he makes sense as a massive money buy, given the home grown thing we need to solve too.

Otherwise, on Grealish, given our success with Dele and Dier, I’m surprised people are so lukewarm on him. So he’s coming from the Championship...doesn’t matter. He’s undeniably a talent, and by all accounts he’s had some life experience over the last 2 years which has meant he will do whatever it takes to make the most of the opportunity he has been given in football. If he has that relentless desire to improve, getting him well drilled into the Poch system will mean he can start adding value pretty quickly I would say. It’s a smart buy. And a player that can beat players one on one, take the ball in tight spaces and do something special. Why would we not want one of those?
 
I must say...it sounds like Palace are linked with an awful lot of wingers last few days - couple of weeks. It’s almost like they are preparing for Zaha to potentially go.

Maybe he makes sense as a massive money buy, given the home grown thing we need to solve too.

Otherwise, on Grealish, given our success with Dele and Dier, I’m surprised people are so lukewarm on him. So he’s coming from the Championship...doesn’t matter. He’s undeniably a talent, and by all accounts he’s had some life experience over the last 2 years which has meant he will do whatever it takes to make the most of the opportunity he has been given in football. If he has that relentless desire to improve, getting him well drilled into the Poch system will mean he can start adding value pretty quickly I would say. It’s a smart buy. And a player that can beat players one on one, take the ball in tight spaces and do something special. Why would we not want one of those?

Are palace actually interested in other wingers or are the press making it up because they think Zaha is off, these things kinda self perpetuate.
 
Leverage is very relevant when lenders assess who to lend to. If United were leveraged to 10 times their value, and we were at 0.7 of ours, were a safer bet for the lender to get their money back especially when we’re making more money than United. Longevity and brand mean nothing to a lender unless it’s monatised and reflected in your accounts. We made more profit than any other PL club in 2017 bar Leicester (which was a one off).

If the TV revenue goes for us, it goes for everyone. That’s a risk for every club. We’re also guaranteed revenue from the new stadium. That’s not a risk. We will sell more than 36,000 tickets to every game. We also have a deal with the nfl and if anyone thinks Levy won’t get naming rights, you’re nuts. The stadium will bring in extra revenue. This is not like banking on CL qualification. This is money we will get.

I’m not saying Grealish is a special player. Anything but. We need better than him although I think he’d be a decent addition. We need a couple of players at the level that Levy hasn’t signed in a long time (probably since VDV).
We're not guaranteed any future revenue on ticket sales other than the longer term corporate tickets that we've sold and I'm fairly sure they weren't sold at the time of us going to market for funding.

You're right that TV money could stop for any other club too - that's why the status of those clubs is important. If we were relegated to the Championship this season, much of our revenue would dry up. That's not the case for Utd - their "Japanese tourist" effect would last for a few years.
 
We're not guaranteed any future revenue on ticket sales other than the longer term corporate tickets that we've sold and I'm fairly sure they weren't sold at the time of us going to market for funding.

You're right that TV money could stop for any other club too - that's why the status of those clubs is important. If we were relegated to the Championship this season, much of our revenue would dry up. That's not the case for Utd - their "Japanese tourist" effect would last for a few years.

Ah Scara, stop will you. Our average attendance last season, at Wembley, was 68,000. That’s 32,000 more than then capacity at WHL. Our lowest PL attendance was over 50,000.

Granted, we were competing strongly for top 4 but we were also away from our traditional home and the chances of us not being in the top 6 or 7 this season are extremely low.

Barring nuclear war, we are guaranteed to have a higher average attendance than 36,000 and we will increase revenue.

Don’t tell me that “serious relegation fears” are making a return.
 
Ah Scara, stop will you. Our average attendance last season, at Wembley, was 68,000. That’s 32,000 more than then capacity at WHL. Our lowest PL attendance was over 50,000.

Granted, we were competing strongly for top 4 but we were also away from our traditional home and the chances of us not being in the top 6 or 7 this season are extremely low.

Barring nuclear war, we are guaranteed to have a higher average attendance than 36,000 and we will increase revenue.

Don’t tell me that “serious relegation fears” are making a return.
Given the history of football clubs that have loaned against future ticket sales, I wouldn't put my money there. Most of those I know that do such a thing for a living probably wouldn't either.
 
Given the history of football clubs that have loaned against future ticket sales, I wouldn't put my money there. Most of those I know that do such a thing for a living probably wouldn't either.

Have any of them done it while moving in to a new stadium that they've had to move to because demand was simply too much for their old stadium? Have any of them done it after demonstrating the prior season that they could almost double their attendance on average?

If we were afraid to take this risk, there is no hope for us. Thankfully, Levy has already taken the risk by banking our future against the stadium growing our revenue mainly through ticket sales. If we didn't grow revenue, we'd need to draw down the £400m (or most of it) to pay off the stadium building costs because we'd struggle to pay for the stadium from our day to day operations. Assuming we didn't sell extra tickets or grow revenue, we're then leveraged to over 2 times our value and in seriously bad financial shape (we'd owe 400m plus the additional 70m on our balance sheet and the club is only worth £227m). We'd also have increased cost in terms of wages for some of the contracts he's negotiated already. The banks wouldn't touch us.

Levy has already banked our future on the stadium bringing in extra money and he does this thing for a living. And he's right to do so because he knows the stadium is absolutely guaranteed to bring in extra revenue.
 
Have any of them done it while moving in to a new stadium that they've had to move to because demand was simply too much for their old stadium? Have any of them done it after demonstrating the prior season that they could almost double their attendance on average?

If we were afraid to take this risk, there is no hope for us. Thankfully, Levy has already taken the risk by banking our future against the stadium growing our revenue mainly through ticket sales. If we didn't grow revenue, we'd need to draw down the £400m (or most of it) to pay off the stadium building costs because we'd struggle to pay for the stadium from our day to day operations. Assuming we didn't sell extra tickets or grow revenue, we're then leveraged to over 2 times our value and in seriously bad financial shape (we'd owe 400m plus the additional 70m on our balance sheet and the club is only worth £227m). We'd also have increased cost in terms of wages for some of the contracts he's negotiated already. The banks wouldn't touch us.

Levy has already banked our future on the stadium bringing in extra money and he does this thing for a living. And he's right to do so because he knows the stadium is absolutely guaranteed to bring in extra revenue.
It's one thing using that kind of debt to purchase a fixed asset like a stadium, it's another entirely to use it for player purchases and wages - that's the same madness that Redknapp is into.
 
Grealish off now, looked quite sad whilst walking off, applauded the Villa fans and they to a man returned the gesture

must be emotional for him playing his last game for Villa.

anyway, welcome to Spurs Jack.
:)

Never rule out Chelsea when it comes to a "done deal" for Tottenham. Especially after Sarri has seen Barkley and Drinkwater both fluff their lines in pre-season. And with RL-C supposedly back on loan to Palace as a makeweight for Zaha.
That's three CMs who Grealish could easily overtake in the pecking order. Maybe even be seen as a long term replacement for Fabregas.

Oh, and plus we're supposedly not even close with tabling an acceptable offer.
 
Never rule out Chelsea when it comes to a "done deal" for Tottenham. Especially after Sarri has seen Barkley and Drinkwater both fluff their lines in pre-season. And with RL-C supposedly back on loan to Palace as a makeweight for Zaha.
That's three CMs who Grealish could easily overtake in the pecking order. Maybe even be seen as a long term replacement for Fabregas.

Oh, and plus we're supposedly not even close with tabling an acceptable offer.
Him and Barkley would make a great pairing in the centre of Chelsea's bench.
 
It's one thing using that kind of debt to purchase a fixed asset like a stadium, it's another entirely to use it for player purchases and wages - that's the same madness that Redknapp is into.

You're moving the goal posts all over the place. You mentioned leverage and then it wasn't important when you saw that other clubs are much more heavily leveraged than us. You then mentioned not borrowing against/relying on future ticket sales and when you realised that's exactly what we're doing, you're moving from that position again.

We have £200m of cash or cash equivalents sitting on our balance sheet. We've a tonne of money. Levy always structures deals in such a way that we don't pay everything up front and the players have some sort of recovery value. I'm not suggesting that we abandon that model. But, in my view, he needs to be a little more adventurous to capitalise on what we have by signing a couple of quality players - Jack Grealish is not the type of player we need right now. I'm not suggesting for a second that we borrow hundreds of millions and buy a couple of 30 year olds but we can take a sensible risk and bring in someone like Kovacic, Zaha, Martial, de Ligt and not put much strain on our finances.
 
You're moving the goal posts all over the place. You mentioned leverage and then it wasn't important when you saw that other clubs are much more heavily leveraged than us. You then mentioned not borrowing against/relying on future ticket sales and when you realised that's exactly what we're doing, you're moving from that position again.

We have £200m of cash or cash equivalents sitting on our balance sheet. We've a tonne of money. Levy always structures deals in such a way that we don't pay everything up front and the players have some sort of recovery value. I'm not suggesting that we abandon that model. But, in my view, he needs to be a little more adventurous to capitalise on what we have by signing a couple of quality players - Jack Grealish is not the type of player we need right now. I'm not suggesting for a second that we borrow hundreds of millions and buy a couple of 30 year olds but we can take a sensible risk and bring in someone like Kovacic, Zaha, Martial, de Ligt and not put much strain on our finances.
I'm perfectly happy for us to match our debt against the items that debt is used to finance - that's what all sensible businesses do. Utd are heavily leveraged but my belief is that the debt was used to purchase the club itself with the club being the security - as with a mortgage. We've essentially done the same with the stadium - we've taken what is, for all intents and purposes, a mortgage on a new stadium.

When you go to a lender for this type of finance they're looking for three things;
1) Can you afford to repay the loan (as with all loans). That's pretty simple and the terms we've agreed make that clear.
2) What security is there?
3) Does the "business case" stack up - essentially, can the applicant demonstrate increased profit will return from buying the asset?

Let's ignore 1 - as you've already stated, it's not really an issue.
2) It's illegal for a lender to have a charge (shared ownership) over a player, so borrowing to buy players means that the lender will want some other security. It's absolutely fine to borrow against a stadium to buy that stadium, it's not OK to borrow against any of our tangible assets in order to buy a player.
3) There's no business case for showing that a player (especially not one at the Grealish end of the spectrum) will increase profits. When we borrow £30M to buy a Sissoko, or £40M to buy a Grealish, or £70M to buy a Zaha, what do we do when that player flops and needs replacing? We can't realise their value at market because we've discovered that they're actually a bit brick. So we need to borrow to replace them - what happens if that player flops? Due to the nature of the asset, we need to be prepared that all players purchased could suddenly be worth next to nothing - that's why debt for players is a really bad idea.

Now if gap insurance existed for players, you might be on to something. But I'm fairly sure it doesn't and that it would probably require a lender holding a charge over that player and would violate the shared ownership rules.
 
Trix said:
Definitely others (players) being worked on.

Regarding Grealish: He is desperate now to play in the Prem, We still have some way to move but his camp are optimistic. Thing is if we need to get somewhere close as far as financials are concerned and soon.

The concerns are that he will be a good last minute option to a lot of clubs should they miss out on other players, or need a replacement for last minute departures. There have been other clubs making discreet enquiries about his situation, and although he wants us, his people won't wait until the final hour if he has a good offer elsewhere.

My source on this is as good as it gets.upload_2018-8-7_10-33-37.gif

Some ITK cos the day just needs it o_Oo_Oo_Oo_Oo_O
 
Trix said:
Definitely others (players) being worked on.

Regarding Grealish: He is desperate now to play in the Prem, We still have some way to move but his camp are optimistic. Thing is if we need to get somewhere close as far as financials are concerned and soon.

The concerns are that he will be a good last minute option to a lot of clubs should they miss out on other players, or need a replacement for last minute departures. There have been other clubs making discreet enquiries about his situation, and although he wants us, his people won't wait until the final hour if he has a good offer elsewhere.

My source on this is as good as it gets.View attachment 4825

Some ITK cos the day just needs it o_Oo_Oo_Oo_Oo_O


And, with exactly the same degree of relevance and authority, Daniel Levy's outlook for today on horoscope.com:

Aug 7, 2018 - Don't be surprised if you leap out of bed with a spark of inspiration that wasn't there last night, Aquarius. Let your dreams linger a bit before you face the world. This flash of genius is likely to strike quickly and unexpectedly, so keep an eye out for it, but don't consider it something that you can plan on or force into happening

So, good news all round.
 
fair enough, I can't say I've seen it from a source I trust

have we had confirmation united have enquired about Toby?

I don't rate Zaha, whatever Fergie saw in him United bombed him out pretty quickly

what sources do you trust? do we ever get conformation until a deal is complete.

A 21 yr old post Fergie train wreak under Moyes 5 years ago seems a bit of a harsh way to judge the players current suitability. The main criticism was he needed more maturity in his game, he is now more mature.
 
I'm perfectly happy for us to match our debt against the items that debt is used to finance - that's what all sensible businesses do. Utd are heavily leveraged but my belief is that the debt was used to purchase the club itself with the club being the security - as with a mortgage. We've essentially done the same with the stadium - we've taken what is, for all intents and purposes, a mortgage on a new stadium.

When you go to a lender for this type of finance they're looking for three things;
1) Can you afford to repay the loan (as with all loans). That's pretty simple and the terms we've agreed make that clear.
2) What security is there?
3) Does the "business case" stack up - essentially, can the applicant demonstrate increased profit will return from buying the asset?

Let's ignore 1 - as you've already stated, it's not really an issue.
2) It's illegal for a lender to have a charge (shared ownership) over a player, so borrowing to buy players means that the lender will want some other security. It's absolutely fine to borrow against a stadium to buy that stadium, it's not OK to borrow against any of our tangible assets in order to buy a player.
3) There's no business case for showing that a player (especially not one at the Grealish end of the spectrum) will increase profits. When we borrow £30M to buy a Sissoko, or £40M to buy a Grealish, or £70M to buy a Zaha, what do we do when that player flops and needs replacing? We can't realise their value at market because we've discovered that they're actually a bit brick. So we need to borrow to replace them - what happens if that player flops? Due to the nature of the asset, we need to be prepared that all players purchased could suddenly be worth next to nothing - that's why debt for players is a really bad idea.

Now if gap insurance existed for players, you might be on to something. But I'm fairly sure it doesn't and that it would probably require a lender holding a charge over that player and would violate the shared ownership rules.

A lender is looking for one thing - can you repay the loan? They couldn't give a sh!te if what you're buying makes you money or not if you have enough money to cover the loan anyway. If you're relying on the loan to generate revenue to pay off the loan, that's a different story and 2 and 3 become relevant. A bank doesn't refuse you a car loan (for an asset that will depreciate) if you have a house that's worth hundreds of thousands or a revenue stream (salary) that easily enables you to pay back the loan.

We don't have to break the bank to sign a couple of quality players. We have £200m in the bank according to our 2017 accounts. Given that we won't spend more than £50m to 60m on a player and we certainly won't pay it all up front either, we could do it without going to a bank. Even if we did, we could repay the loan. Given that our wages to turnover ratio is the lowest in the league, we could also afford the wages.
 
Steve Bruce knows Aston Villa have a battle on their hands to keep the playmaker Jack Grealish at the club beyond Thursday’s transfer deadline.

Grealish, an integral part of Villa’s run to the Championship play-off final last season, has been linked with a move to Tottenham this summer.
Bruce opted to start him against Hull but would understand if Grealish is tempted by a top-four Premier League club. “I am fed up reading about it and I cannot wait until after Thursday,” he said. “Nobody wants him to leave but there is a human element to it too.

“The owners have made it pretty clear that they don’t want to sell him and that still stands. Now if they get to a magical figure, then we will see. What that magical figure is I do not know.

“He is an Aston Villa fan, his family are Aston Villa through and through, they are probably in the away end tonight singing with the fans. It is an emotional thing for him, of course.

“But he is young and ambitious and wants to play in the Champions League and we understand that.

“We are all trying our best to hang on to him but at the moment there is no decision to be made as they are not at the figure where the owners are even blinking.

“It has been a difficult few weeks to say the least, but the new owners have taken over the club in a week,” said Bruce, who is still looking to strengthen his side. You cannot buy a house in a week. That shows how real they are.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/aug/06/hull-city-aston-villa-championship-match-report
 
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