So, I started looking back at previous ballot results to see if there was any kind of trend. Nothing really particular, but thought I'd post the detail :
% Applications Successful may not be overly meaningful other than as a high level figure, as obviously I cant factor in how many applications there were for each price point vs how many seats at each price point.
The last two ballots have seen big jumps in application numbers : maybe as I said earlier because more people are making an effort to get to a game before we move out, or because we are doing well, or maybe due to the increased number of memberships sold ahead of the Gent tickets going on sale. Regardless of reason, it is going to get harder as the season goes on, I am sure.
Also, the LP cut-off has been surprising low for the CAT A games so far. I can't see that remaining so low for Woolwich and Utd. However at least it won't be impacted by any newly signed up members.
I had a look at the LP status on the OS :
Obviously these will all have changed by the application dates for Woolwich and Utd, but based on the status today,and using the average seat availablity so far (c 5500) then anything above 200 LPs (as of now) should guarantee a ticket, and probably a bit lower. Pretty meaningless now, but it gives a ballpark feel for what might be enough.