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2022/23 expectations

I think Harry and HMS Will share a record total of goals and assists in the EPL.

Conte suits me very well and obviously I wish them all the best.

I am massively peeved Chelsea got a prop. They really should have been expunged from the record books.
 
FatBloke said:
I've just totted up domestic cup final appearances for the Big 6 over the last 10 seasons:

Chelsea 8 (5 FA Cup, 3 League Cup)
Emirates Marketing Project 8 (2, 6)
Arsenal 5 (4, 1)
ManU 3 (2, 1)
Liverpool 3 (1, 2)
Spurs 2 (0, 2)

You know, I expected Liverpool to be much higher. So the two teams that are way ahead of the rest are Chelsea and Emirates Marketing Project, with Arsenal third.

I'm not sure how that correlates with anything, apart from that we've really not done as badly as I thought, in the last 10 years at least.
Click to expand...

10 years x 2 competitions x 2 slots in each final is 40 slots available with a maximum possibility per team of 20. We’ve managed 2. It’s appalling imo but was mainly because Poch wasn’t really too concerned about domestic trophies.

There’s been 62 finalists in the FA Cup since we last appeared. It’s quite ridiculous.
 
I think I said 4th-6th last season and was pleasantly surprised we topped out on that - mainly because we replaced Nuno with Conte.

This year I’d only nudge us up one more. 3rd-5th. It’s been an ok window and providing Peresic and Doherty are a success we should have no problem getting 4th but I don’t think we’ve added enough to really threaten City or Liverpool.

Would love a cup final and preferably a win. If we don’t get out of the CL group I’d like to go all out for the Europa. Seeing those finals at the end of last season annoyed me.
 
Benny_Lad said:
I think I said 4th-6th last season and was pleasantly surprised we topped out on that - mainly because we replaced Nuno with Conte.

This year I’d only nudge us up one more. 3rd-5th. It’s been an ok window and providing Peresic and Doherty are a success we should have no problem getting 4th but I don’t think we’ve added enough to really threaten City or Liverpool.

Would love a cup final and preferably a win. If we don’t get out of the CL group I’d like to go all out for the Europa. Seeing those finals at the end of last season annoyed me.
Click to expand...

This for me too. Will of course also depend on how the other top teams do.

Challenging for the league title seems like a long shot at best.
 
elyid said:
My aim would be to be safely in a CL spot so that we can focus more on the CL and later stages of the cups, rather than having one eye on fourth place.
Click to expand...

We don’t want to be looking at fourth at all. Look at first, aim for that and see what happens. Aim up, don’t look down.
 
Keep within touching distance of the top position till WC, we'll have a great chance. Even better if we're still in all the cups
 
A computer has us at 4th:

upload_2022-8-2_14-57-8.png

This page shows the analysis - pretty interesting inputs there which is quite well assembled and seems to have been backtested for a high confidence of predictability:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
up to date with latest pre season transfers with market value as a guide to changing performance - though i think that would be faulty this year

Well at least the rankings look in order and anticipation of narrowing points gap amongst the top teams:
upload_2022-8-2_15-3-10.png
 

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billyiddo said:
I've skimmed that article but can't square how they have Chelsea in third, wholesale changes in defence and a goalshy attack seems to contradict the way they rate teams chances to me.
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I think it's weighted heavily to last season's scores and difference in transfer market value from recent signings.

Sent from my SM-T865 using Fapatalk
 
metalgear said:
I think it's weighted heavily to last season's scores and difference in transfer market value from recent signings.

Sent from my SM-T865 using Fapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think so too.

Although transfer market value is a decent, (and probably one of the few reasonable) ways to operationalise effect of transfer market activity into predictions of results in a statistical way it will be wildly inaccurate in some cases.

Time will tell what impact this transfer window will have on teams.
 
Problem with "supercomputer" predictions is they're only reliable as the information given to them. You can't accurately predict the future there are way too many variables. The butterfly effect kicks in.

To accurately predict the future you would need laplace's demon.
 
Oh look another super computer prediction.

https://talksport.com/football/1159024/

talkSPORT's 2022/23 final table prediction
  1. Emirates Marketing Project
  2. Liverpool
  3. Tottenham
  4. Arsenal
  5. Manchester United
  6. Chelsea
  7. Saudi Sportswashing Machine
  8. West Ham United
  9. Aston Villa
  10. Brighton
  11. Leicester City
  12. Crystal Palace
  13. Southampton
  14. Wolves
  15. Leeds United
  16. Nottingham Forest
  17. Brentford
  18. Everton
  19. Fulham
  20. Bournemouth
Almost like super computers don't have a clue.
 
Lilbaz said:
Oh look another super computer prediction.

https://talksport.com/football/1159024/

talkSPORT's 2022/23 final table prediction
  1. Emirates Marketing Project
  2. Liverpool
  3. Tottenham
  4. Anyone but Arsenal
  5. Manchester United
  6. Chelsea
  7. Saudi Sportswashing Machine
  8. West Ham United
  9. Aston Villa
  10. Brighton
  11. Leicester City
  12. Crystal Palace
  13. Southampton
  14. Wolves
  15. Leeds United
  16. Nottingham Forest
  17. Brentford
  18. Everton
  19. Fulham
  20. Bournemouth
Almost like super computers don't have a clue.
Click to expand...

this one’s better
 
Benny_Lad said:
I think I said 4th-6th last season and was pleasantly surprised we topped out on that - mainly because we replaced Nuno with Conte.

This year I’d only nudge us up one more. 3rd-5th. It’s been an ok window and providing Peresic and Doherty are a success we should have no problem getting 4th but I don’t think we’ve added enough to really threaten City or Liverpool.

Would love a cup final and preferably a win. If we don’t get out of the CL group I’d like to go all out for the Europa. Seeing those finals at the end of last season annoyed me.
Click to expand...

Same way I see it too. I think we will get 3rd but really can’t see us challenging for the title. To do that we’d need to get around 20 points more than last season, or the top two would both need to drop their levels. Even if we get between 80-90 points and finish 3rd that would be an excellent season league wise. I’ll admit I’d happily take 4th and a trophy over 3rd and another trophy-less season.

Here’s my prediction for the top 6:

1. Emirates Marketing Project
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Arse
5. Chelsea
6. United
 
Jurgen the German said:
Same way I see it too. I think we will get 3rd but really can’t see us challenging for the title. To do that we’d need to get around 20 points more than last season, or the top two would both need to drop their levels. Even if we get between 80-90 points and finish 3rd that would be an excellent season league wise. I’ll admit I’d happily take 4th and a trophy over 3rd and another trophy-less season.

Here’s my prediction for the top 6:

1. Emirates Marketing Project
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Arse
5. Chelsea
6. United
Click to expand...
Jurgen the German said:
Same way I see it too. I think we will get 3rd but really can’t see us challenging for the title. To do that we’d need to get around 20 points more than last season, or the top two would both need to drop their levels. Even if we get between 80-90 points and finish 3rd that would be an excellent season league wise. I’ll admit I’d happily take 4th and a trophy over 3rd and another trophy-less season.

Here’s my prediction for the top 6:

1. Emirates Marketing Project
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Arse
5. Chelsea
6. United
Click to expand...
Id like to see this. From my point of view we did well last season in trying circumstances. We got 4th but with managerial change and player changes. We are more settled now. So I would like to think we can be in 3rd place and close to the top two for a while. And get CL before the end of the season. My heart would like to think we can toy with the top spot here and there. And whilst I agree that Liverpool and City are ahead of us. We dont play them 38 times a season. Only 4, so our games against them ( where we did well ) count but its how we do against the rest. Our squad is more settled and we have some backup on the bench now as well.

I hope for a way more solid Defense, a settled Kane and Son firing. Richarlison forcing himself into the team so we have a lethal front three. Peresic with a lot of assets from the left and Spence taking over the RWB spot.

As for a trophy. CL would be a long shot. League cup is not going to shut anyone up. So I want to see us really go for the FA Cup as well.
 
Jurgen the German said:
Same way I see it too. I think we will get 3rd but really can’t see us challenging for the title. To do that we’d need to get around 20 points more than last season, or the top two would both need to drop their levels. Even if we get between 80-90 points and finish 3rd that would be an excellent season league wise. I’ll admit I’d happily take 4th and a trophy over 3rd and another trophy-less season.

Here’s my prediction for the top 6:

1. Emirates Marketing Project
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Arse
5. Chelsea
6. United
Click to expand...

Same here.
 
metalgear said:
A computer has us at 4th:

View attachment 14355

This page shows the analysis - pretty interesting inputs there which is quite well assembled and seems to have been backtested for a high confidence of predictability:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/
up to date with latest pre season transfers with market value as a guide to changing performance - though i think that would be faulty this year

Well at least the rankings look in order and anticipation of narrowing points gap amongst the top teams:
View attachment 14356
Click to expand...

I think an obvious problem with those predictions is the spread of results. It has a 9% chance of City finishing outside the CL places, and 17% for Liverpool. There are small but not insignificant other top six clubs finishing in the bottom 10. And look at the chances of CL qualification for Villa down to Everton. Relegation is also spread broadly.

It seems the model errs towards the middle, underestimating the better clubs and overestimating the dross.
 
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