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2022/23 expectations
- Thread starter El Guepardo
- Start date
FatBloke
Niko Kranjcar
This is the first season in quite a while that I think we have an outside chance at the title. But it's pretty damn slim -- it'd rely on Darwin at Liverpool AND Haaland at Emirates Marketing Project not hitting the ground running. We'd probably need both of them to be unlucky with injuries too. So, realistically, I think 3rd is likely, maybe 2nd.
That's also assuming that ManU don't suddenly cast off their shackles. I don't think they're going to suddenly become the greatest team on the planet, but they'll definitely be in the mix for top 4, as will Arsenal. I think Chelsea will drop off a bit but not enough to fall out of the top 6.
Will we get a cup? It'd be nice to progress in the CL, but I don't think we'll get past the QFs. Hopefully we'll qualify from our group rather than dropping into the Europa though. The domestic cups are a lottery, of course, but that's where squad depth comes in -- we might actually be able to nab one this season, with our bench players good enough to get through the early rounds and our 1st XI good enough to take on anyone in the latter stages.
So, I'd be delighted with 2nd in the Prem, the CL QFs and the FA Cup. I'd still be happy with 3rd, last 16 and a cup final, as long as we close the gap to the top 2.
That's also assuming that ManU don't suddenly cast off their shackles. I don't think they're going to suddenly become the greatest team on the planet, but they'll definitely be in the mix for top 4, as will Arsenal. I think Chelsea will drop off a bit but not enough to fall out of the top 6.
Will we get a cup? It'd be nice to progress in the CL, but I don't think we'll get past the QFs. Hopefully we'll qualify from our group rather than dropping into the Europa though. The domestic cups are a lottery, of course, but that's where squad depth comes in -- we might actually be able to nab one this season, with our bench players good enough to get through the early rounds and our 1st XI good enough to take on anyone in the latter stages.
So, I'd be delighted with 2nd in the Prem, the CL QFs and the FA Cup. I'd still be happy with 3rd, last 16 and a cup final, as long as we close the gap to the top 2.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
I think we’ll win the CL.
The dominant narrative is Conte isn’t very good in the competition. Yet his footballing philosophy is perfect for cup competition.
We are not going to be the most creative of teams, there will be others who have more skill on the flanks. But we’ll be one of the most determined, and fittest with 2 forwards that if they play the whole season again will mean we have a good chance to win every game.
Top 4 and a cup final.
The dominant narrative is Conte isn’t very good in the competition. Yet his footballing philosophy is perfect for cup competition.
We are not going to be the most creative of teams, there will be others who have more skill on the flanks. But we’ll be one of the most determined, and fittest with 2 forwards that if they play the whole season again will mean we have a good chance to win every game.
Top 4 and a cup final.
Gazza Dazzla
Chris Perry
I think the Conte isn’t good in the CL thing is a bit over played, there are circumstances for most of his CL exits.
I think I'm more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago:
- Chelsea still dont have a complete defence nor them bedded in, and I dont see Sterling as a huge improvement
- CIty's changes I feel might de-stablise them as they don't ever play with a main CF...
- Man U: disappointed they got Eriksen but Ronaldo wants out and unless the two defs they signed are amazing, then they have regressed. Still no CM and lost some experience in Cavani, Pogba etc.
- Arsenal: their transfer business has been fine but they have to cope with Europe this year which will cost them say 10-15 points
- Liverpool: I like Nunez but not sure he fits them, whereas Mane does/did
I therefore feel that 4th would be disappointing, 5th Conte might be sacked, and I'd like to think we'll finish 3rd. Anything above 3rd....who knows
In terms of cups: far to difficult to predict but the top 3-4 teams contest most of the finals/semis so I'd expect some runs to the late stages, and at that point, it can come down to luck
- Chelsea still dont have a complete defence nor them bedded in, and I dont see Sterling as a huge improvement
- CIty's changes I feel might de-stablise them as they don't ever play with a main CF...
- Man U: disappointed they got Eriksen but Ronaldo wants out and unless the two defs they signed are amazing, then they have regressed. Still no CM and lost some experience in Cavani, Pogba etc.
- Arsenal: their transfer business has been fine but they have to cope with Europe this year which will cost them say 10-15 points
- Liverpool: I like Nunez but not sure he fits them, whereas Mane does/did
I therefore feel that 4th would be disappointing, 5th Conte might be sacked, and I'd like to think we'll finish 3rd. Anything above 3rd....who knows
In terms of cups: far to difficult to predict but the top 3-4 teams contest most of the finals/semis so I'd expect some runs to the late stages, and at that point, it can come down to luck
Yiddo
Jack Jull
Conte won’t get sacked, if we lose Conte we lose Kane and if we lose Kane, Son will not be the player he currently is.
DeanoAustin
Jimmy McCormick
You'll find that most people spouting this can't explain why "Conte isn't good in the CL". They see correlation and then start spouting "stats" to prove their case. This is the danger of stats (and I'm not a Luddite, they have their place - I just have a problem with people using them in naked form to "prove" an argument without providing insight or context).
There is no reason I can see that Conte cannot be successful in the CL. Hopefully, it's with us.
FatBloke
Niko Kranjcar
Quite.
With Juve and Inter, it would have been all about Serie A -- at the time, I don't think either of those sides expected CL success. In his one full season at Chelsea, without European distractions, they stormed the league -- in almost any other season, Poch's peak Spurs team would have won it.
The following season, Conte's Chelsea got knocked out of the CL by Barcelona, which is fair enough, won the FA Cup, and finished down in 5th -- so Abramovich handed Conte his P45.
So where does that leave us? There's no expectation to win the Prem -- if anything, the CL is probably easier! I would say that it all depends where we are come April. If we're in the mix for the Prem, I would expect that to be prioritised. If we're safely in the top 4 but miles behind the leaders, I'd expect to go all-out for the CL.
What's likely to happen, unfortunately, is that we end up in a dogfight for top 4 so have to prioritise that. We then lose in the CL QFs, finish 3rd or 4th in the league...and repeat it all again the following year. Not quite good enough to fight all the way on two fronts.
We've now got a solid defence and an attack that only needs a half-chance to score. In theory, that should give us a chance against anyone in the cups.
alekaras
The ITK of IDK
The most important thing is that we beat the teams that we are supposed to beat. The squad depth that we have added and 5 subs should help us turn these games around, if we're struggling. Add to that a squad that is much better drilled in Conte's tactics, as well as "the Conte effect" and we should be winning 90% of those games, drawing 7%, and losing 3%. All the games against teams in positions 7-20 are 28 games. Out of those 28, we win 25, draw 2, and lose 1. That's 77 points.
From the remaining 10 games against top 6 opposition, let's say we average 1.5 pts/game. That's essentially beating a team at home and losing the away match, which I can see happening on average. That's another 15 points right there.
Add the two together and we're at 92 points. That would have put us in the hunt or won it in 3 out of the last 6 seasons. Where it will put us in the 2022/23 season no one knows. Hopefully it will be a title-winning points haul.
At the same time, let's not also forget that Conte has spoken about "a project." This implies that he does not expect us to win the league this year, but at least lessen the gap between the top 2. It's in 2023/24 that I think we will be making the real push.
As for cups, I couldn't care less, unless it's the CL. I'd rather make the CL final, even if we lose it, than win the FA or Carabao cups, because that would be a true sign that we are now a big team.
From the remaining 10 games against top 6 opposition, let's say we average 1.5 pts/game. That's essentially beating a team at home and losing the away match, which I can see happening on average. That's another 15 points right there.
Add the two together and we're at 92 points. That would have put us in the hunt or won it in 3 out of the last 6 seasons. Where it will put us in the 2022/23 season no one knows. Hopefully it will be a title-winning points haul.
At the same time, let's not also forget that Conte has spoken about "a project." This implies that he does not expect us to win the league this year, but at least lessen the gap between the top 2. It's in 2023/24 that I think we will be making the real push.
As for cups, I couldn't care less, unless it's the CL. I'd rather make the CL final, even if we lose it, than win the FA or Carabao cups, because that would be a true sign that we are now a big team.
So that would be 3 CL qualifications in a row....and generally in this country the top 4 contest most of the cup finals so we'd be in with a shout of trophies.
If that's the 'unfortunately' case as you say, its not too shabby
FatBloke
Niko Kranjcar
Absolutely. The club is at the point where "unfortunately" takes us to places that we could barely even dream of in the 90s and 00s.
The top 4 do contest, and therefore win, most of the domestic cup finals. So why haven't we? I'll hazard that it's because we've been fighting damn hard to get that 4th place most seasons. The next stage is for us to be secure enough in the top 4, and have enough squad depth, to be able to rest players for the latter stages of the cup. To bring Kane on after 60 minutes against Southampton the Wednesday before a cup SF, rather than flogging him for the full 90.
Who knows? Maybe finally winning a trophy will break the mental shackles and suddenly unleash a flood more.
We have been to 3 finals in the last 10 years. Just need that extra bit of mental strength to get us over the line and for kane and son to fire. Conte hopefully should help give us that along with perisic.
FatBloke
Niko Kranjcar
I've just totted up domestic cup final appearances for the Big 6 over the last 10 seasons:
Chelsea 8 (5 FA Cup, 3 League Cup)
Emirates Marketing Project 8 (2, 6)
Arsenal 5 (4, 1)
ManU 3 (2, 1)
Liverpool 3 (1, 2)
Spurs 2 (0, 2)
You know, I expected Liverpool to be much higher. So the two teams that are way ahead of the rest are Chelsea and Emirates Marketing Project, with Arsenal third.
I'm not sure how that correlates with anything, apart from that we've really not done as badly as I thought, in the last 10 years at least.
Chelsea 8 (5 FA Cup, 3 League Cup)
Emirates Marketing Project 8 (2, 6)
Arsenal 5 (4, 1)
ManU 3 (2, 1)
Liverpool 3 (1, 2)
Spurs 2 (0, 2)
You know, I expected Liverpool to be much higher. So the two teams that are way ahead of the rest are Chelsea and Emirates Marketing Project, with Arsenal third.
I'm not sure how that correlates with anything, apart from that we've really not done as badly as I thought, in the last 10 years at least.
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Knocked out in 4 semi finals aswell.
FatBloke
Niko Kranjcar
Three of them FA Cup, right? Those are the matches that I'm hoping to start winning. The FA Cup semis come in April, when our key players are usually getting knackered and we're doing all we can to secure a top 4 place.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
I’ve been to several league cup semis vs Chelsea recently
parklane1
Tony Galvin
That has been our biggest weakness ( imo) and the main reason we have failed at the final push.
One thing it shows is that c.75% of cup final slots are taken by the top 6.
Therefore if you're in the top 6 and keep knocking at the door, eventually silverware will follow
Its why when people ask about season expectations, I just focus on the league. If you're one of the top 3-4 teams then cups will follow. The above data backs that up
NLS
Adel Taarabt
I can remember reading a few years ago that the last time Man United won the premiership they got 57 points out of 60 against the bottom 10 in the league...
If we were to get a 'playmaker', as suggested we might do, and another top quality central defender we would have a really strong squad... That would allow us to really compete in all competitions and vary our style of play to suit the opposition - especially with 5 subs per game.
The ability to put a strong, refreshed side out against every team we play - especially against the lower rate teams - could make a huge difference compared to previous seasons....
Come on you beautiful Spurs..
If we were to get a 'playmaker', as suggested we might do, and another top quality central defender we would have a really strong squad... That would allow us to really compete in all competitions and vary our style of play to suit the opposition - especially with 5 subs per game.
The ability to put a strong, refreshed side out against every team we play - especially against the lower rate teams - could make a huge difference compared to previous seasons....
Come on you beautiful Spurs..
milo
Jack L. Jones
We're doing a season preview on this week's pod. It'd be great to get your predictions on the form below
https://forms.gle/u32as28VjtooAj3B6
https://forms.gle/u32as28VjtooAj3B6