It's not random!
It's based on the results over the last 4 years (not 4/5 years, why the previous World Cup qualifier isn't included) and the process is transparent, that's why teams like Switzerland (allegedly?) managed to gain the system a touch.
Of course there will always be teams you can point to and say "shouldn't X be ahead of Y", in an objective based ranking like this based on results that will be the case just about regardless of what system you use. There is no perfect ranking system, and I think your proposed system of highly valuing recent World Cups going back 4 (or even 8-12?) years would be a worse measure of the current quality of the teams.
At least this system from FIFA is objective, transparent, non-random and based on results in recent/relevant history.
Hi there,
Let me be clear that I am not proposing that performamces at world cups going back 8 or 12 years should be taken into account when forming seedings/ranking, but i have always assumed (perhaps blindly) that this is actually what FIFA do. I myself assumed that this is why teams like Argentina, Germany, Brazil and often England have been commonly seeeded in each world cup for the last 20 years. Yes Brazil have won it twice in that time, but other times have stil been seeded even though they may have even scraped to reach the world cup (like in 2002).
If only the last 4 years is taken into account, it seems and sounds fair, but then the question will still need to be answered by someone at FIFA as to why, say, Columbia who came second in their group behind Argentina (themselves having not won anything since GHod knows when, so why should finishing 2nd behind them mean anything significant) got seeded whilst Bosnia who topped their qualifying group with one of the best records (won 8 out of 10, losing 1) did not get seeded.
Another 'hole': Uruguay finished 5th and needed a play-off to even qualify yet are seeded. One assumes if was not becuase they were semi-finalist in the last world cup the it was perhaps because they are the current South American champions (2011 Copa America winners).
This then begs the question as to whether the Asian and African championship holders should also get a higher ranking if not actually getting seeded. Nigeria are the current African champions (just last year) but they had a lower ranking going into the world cup than Bosnia and Iran.
In fact, a fair question would be apart from staging a world cup, what would it take for an African or Asian team to be a seed?
Italy, were the runners-up of the last European championships (beaten by an all-conquering Spain) yet are ranked lower than Uruguay in terms of world cup seeding.
All odd.
Then again, this is FIFA who make up the rules as they (and their sponsors) go along, such as when they changed the rules at the last-minute in a previous play-off round to ensure Portugal and France were seeded so they had as much likelihood of reaching the world cup.
I guess I've answered my own question at the end there lol!