So, not sure how I missed this thread, but here are my late ass thoughts
- The question is not is there other life in the universe, it is mathematically impossible that we are the only planet with life, we are made of the most common material in the universe and sheer scale of the universe would lead to life existing elsewhere (an equation was built to prove it)
Therefore the questions are - is there "intelligent" life in the universe and would they be capable of the type of space travel to get here?
The intelligent life one is the one I think gets the least attention and could be the most relevant
- Using our planet as an example, we have less than 10M alive species, with extinct species potentially amounting to 5B species
- Out of that 5B, to our knowledge intelligence as we understand it has evolved once?
- This is really interesting because other traits have evolved independently, multiple times e.g. eyes almost always evolve, fangs, poison, exoskeletons even entire species forms have evolved more than once (crabs, sabertooths), the rarity of intelligence impacts the potential for space travel capable other species.
The next issue is just survivability of intelligence life based on the timeframe required to evolve (it's taken us 4.5B years to get here)
- Mass extinction events make pre space age intelligent species very vulnerable
- The other issue is intelligence has some links to violence as a trait, we as a species managed to make it through the nuclear age so far, but could so easily have gone wrong, potential for science giving a species the ability to destroy themselves before the cultural maturity to deal with it is pretty high.
- Machines/AI, general purpose AI (which would also be a natural development with a science based society) is a threat than we still haven't figured out how to address.
If somehow this rare attribute species managed to survive the above brickshow, how feasible is it any of these are anywhere close to our solar system?
- They may simply be on the other side of the universe
The last issue is simply the intelligence gap to a species capable of space travel
- It could be they are only 500/1000 years ahead of us on the evolution timeline (if you think of the progress we have made in last 100 years you see the exponential nature of it), anything more than that would be completely beyond our comprehension.
We might no longer be interesting, it would be something akin to talking a multi-day cross country drive and stopping to talk to a random group of cows ..