Playing devil's advocate, but you could argue that a goal scoring opportunity has nothing to do with the trajectory of the ball and the fact that it is an opportunity is decided before the ball is actually struck. Even if Lloris was likely to make the save, the opportunity to score a goal was still there.
I've got no sympathy for Naughton either, daft to jump in like that with his arms in the air in the box.
Interesting point, though by definition a handball occurs after the ball has been struck, and so we're in 'another phase'. For example, had Nolan been fouled just as he was about to shoot, then it's a penalty, but would normally not be a red card, because of where Lloris was positioned, it wouldn't be seen as an 'obvious goal scoring opportunity'.
After the ball is struck, surely different criteria come into play. For example, say it was clearly going over the bar or wide of the post, would the lino have recommended the red?