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The transfer thread

Bedfordspurs said:
Neither side
We didn’t even defend that deep that day
But what I can say is Chelsea sacrificed their attack to keep an eye on ours. Hence why they created nothing all game
Their best chance came from Rodons error at the so even that wasn’t of their own creation and that bumped up their xG I assume
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OK... so that wasn’t us parking of the bus? I would hate to see a game in which you consider a team to have done so then!

and no Giroud’s chance only had an XG of 0.05 (I assume as it was a header from quite far out).
 
Finney Is Back said:
OK... so that wasn’t us parking of the bus? I would hate to see a game in which you consider a team to have done so then!
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We went there set up knowing they needed the win
They knew if they opened up to attack us we would do them on the counter so they say deep at the back and had kante marking Ndombele, and other midfielders picking up Kane. They sacrificed their attack
 
Finney Is Back said:
Our XG in that game was 0.19. Odds are that we’d score one goal in total if we played that way against Chelsea 5 times. Chelsea’s XG was 0.85. They would score 4 goals in total against us if playing that way 5 times. We had one possible positive result... 0-0. Chelsea had 0-0 as their fallback result and a 1-0 win as the likely positive result.
Honest direct question.... Do you think it was us or Chelsea who parked the bus in that game?
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From memory we had the better chances in that game still.

Hugo had nothing to do other than the save from mount.

How Stevie didn’t even hit the target early on is beyond me, Giroud missed a chance - but Lo Celso manages to muck up a 3 on 2 completely.
 
Finney Is Back said:
OK... so that wasn’t us parking of the bus? I would hate to see a game in which you consider a team to have done so then!

and no Giroud’s chance only had an XG of 0.05 (I assume as it was a header from quite far out).
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Header?
It was a Flick with his foot wasn’t it that Hugo caught comfortably
I’d have to rewatch it
The heatmap also shows how both teams played which is actually very very similar
969CC75D-40F3-4103-B0FE-7674734333B7.png
 
xG isn't particularly useful when looking at a single game, it is interesting but not much more. It is useful when looking at a run of games and making comparisons on that basis.
 
Have we really only been linked with one player so far? Normally linked with everyone this close to a window.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
View attachment 10453

@Finney Is Back
Where is the XG breakdown as you mentioned. So basically their likelihood of scoring was mega low all game
and the heat maps show they played as deep as us all game
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Yes, as I said before. In 5 games the odds are that we score just under 1 goal and they score a little more than 4.

That heat map shows our touches mainly in our own penalty area and us mainly green in their half (I.e very little). Chelsea have mainly yellow and even some red in our half. That looks anything like them being as deep as us.
 
:confused::confused:
Finney Is Back said:
Yes, as I said before. In 5 games the odds are that we score just under 1 goal and they score a little more than 4.

That heat map shows our touches mainly in our own pelanty area and us mainly green in their half (I.e very little). Chelsea have mainly yellow and even some red in our half. That looks anything like them being as deep as us.
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clearly your never gonna agree even with heat maps when they dont give you the answer you want I guess then. I mean the maps show that they (who had more of the ball) played it as much in their half as ours abs occasional killed it on the halfway line. They offered nothing really all game but you want to focus on slight colour variances. Their main hot spot is the big red bits in their half by the way.

The way XG works is meant to work is that their best chance was a 0.13 so to score a goal they would need that divided by 1 as it’s each chance rated go equate to a single goal so 7.7 games
Cumulative xG means nothing as you can have 1 chance at say a 0.9 and look better than the other team.
Otherwise teams consistently taking rubbish shots would eventually score and that doesn’t happen
 
Bedfordspurs said:
:confused::confused:

clearly your never gonna agree even with heat maps when they dont give you the answer you want I guess then. I mean the maps show that they (who had more of the ball) played it as much in their half as ours abs occasional killed it on the halfway line. They offered nothing really all game but you want to focus on slight colour variances. Their main hot spot is the big red bits in their half by the way.

The way XG works is meant to work is that their best chance was a 0.13 so to score a goal they would need that divided by 1 as it’s each chance rated go equate to a single goal so 7.7 games
Cumulative xG means nothing as you can have 1 chance at say a 0.9 and look better than the other team.
Otherwise teams consistently taking rubbish shots would eventually score and that doesn’t happen
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Of course cumulative XG is used? If a team gets two .5 chances the odds are they will score one goal in the game.

I guess you and I will never agree on the definition of parking the bus. I think it’s what we did against Chelsea and why we created a mere 0.19XG and you think we didn’t do so.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
How do you know?
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Look at our squad.
Kane and Son are the only real quality.

PS I would include Dele but he is so out of game time
Hugo is getting on but he’s quality. The rest are a much of muchness.
Get Eriksen back would be good.
GLC, Tanguy and PEH are in the right direction but we need more.
 
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