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The Limp Struggle to Sneak into the top 4 2021/22

Bedfordspurs said:
And it also doesn’t actually take into account performance, just results and no factor for timing of games.
Said it earlier this week, arsenal have played 8 games this calendar year compared to our 14 now… they have scored 6 goals. That’s a hell of a low goal return and one that may continue, may improve or may get worse. Who knows.
United couldn’t score vs Watford despite battering them and limped to a draw vs Burnley. But arguably they have got better under Ralf as his influence has grown, but we do know their actually quite fragile this season
If we could predict football bookies would be bankrupt
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While Arsenal aren't scoring many they aren't really conceding either. That is a sign of their consistency IMO.
 
Finney Is Back said:
While Arsenal aren't scoring many they aren't really conceding either. That is a sign of their consistency IMO.
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Their GD this year if you include all 8 games is -1
That is including the league cup and Fa cup
If you just have the league it’s +2
I mean it’s better than a negative and is consistency but it’s not what anyone would call brilliant
And if you look at the league they have played and beaten in that time only wolves that are above 15th in the league
But … you can only beat who is in front of you of course
In the same period we have scored 13 league goals, conceded 12 too
But we have played 4 top half teams in that period of 8 games … but lost to 3 of them

no doubt we need to do better in the league to get the consistency right. I fully expect that now with games being spread out more and we can see the impacts that’s had on other teams and the benefit it can bring

Just for some balance (if it’s possible)… United have scored 14 leagues goals this year and conceded 8… but have only beaten one top half side (West Ham). They are a team that people think are struggling to score too…
 
Lilbaz said:
We do have consistency of a sorts if you look at our form since jan.

WLWLWLWLLWLWL

We are consistently inconsistent.
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If we keep going, it should be WLWLLWLWLWLWL until the end of the season. Thats 18 more points, 60 points total.

Yeah, no top four for us.
 
Lilbaz said:
The good thing is that when conte has had a full week between games we usually win. Only one draw according to ally gold.
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We have beaten Brentford midweek under him (they were not knackered than us) and West Ham in the league cup. His record kid week is bad
Weekend games we have lost twice… Chelsea away and wolves the other weekend
 
Bedfordspurs said:
I’ve looked at the team he played in most games last season …
9 players played over 40 games and an average of 44
7 players played over 30 with an average is 36 games
That’s his core… 16 players for most games
That’s IMO the issue with him
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If that's his biggest weakness then I'll take that. The positives, in particular his winning mindset, hugely outweigh those negatives.

I also don't think that distribution of appearances is overly unusual. Perhaps its a little concentrated, buts its still 4 wingbacks, 4 CBs, 4 CMs, 3 CFs and a GK say as the core, and then probably another few who made 10-20 appearances
 
Robbo said:
If we keep going, it should be WLWLLWLWLWLWL until the end of the season. Thats 18 more points, 60 points total.

Yeah, no top four for us.
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Yes, but you'd hope it picks up now that we just have league games left.

I'm not saying we'll get 4th - I'd put it around perhaps 20%-25% chance - but its not impossible

Perfectly realistic that none of Man U, Arse and West Ham win this weekend therefore a victory on Monday v Everton and the table looks a lot better

Our remaining games v Man U, Arse and West Ham look huge
 
afsoc4life said:
Also explains a couple of points

1. Why he was able to win the league with Chelsea as they didn't have any commitments in Europe that season

2. Why he is poor in Europe

I personally am close to switching off from watching him. His mindset is not one I share.
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This is the irony....we hope to fight tooth and nail to get into Europe, then be brick at it because the manager don't do midweeks..:D
 
AdamB said:
Yes, but you'd hope it picks up now that we just have league games left.

I'm not saying we'll get 4th - I'd put it around perhaps 20%-25% chance - but its not impossible

Perfectly realistic that none of Man U, Arse and West Ham win this weekend therefore a victory on Monday v Everton and the table looks a lot better

Our remaining games v Man U, Arse and West Ham look huge
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Think we're 4/1 at the bookies...so you're right.
 
AdamB said:
Yes, but you'd hope it picks up now that we just have league games left.

I'm not saying we'll get 4th - I'd put it around perhaps 20%-25% chance - but its not impossible

Perfectly realistic that none of Man U, Arse and West Ham win this weekend therefore a victory on Monday v Everton and the table looks a lot better

Our remaining games v Man U, Arse and West Ham look huge
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Agreed on that. A little consistency is the key. I reckon 9 wins from 13 will be enough, possibly 8. But as always, one game at a time.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
Think we're 4/1 at the bookies...so you're right.
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Interesting that my % corresponds to those odds. The way I was thinking about it was more dividing up 100% into the contenders. Something like:

30%-40%: Arse
25%-30%: Man U (given CL distraction)
20%-25%: us
5%-10%:West Ham
5%-10%: Wolves

I often think that turning it into % chances brings a dose a realism. For example, at the start of hte FA Cup, you'd say that its probably a say 75%+ chance that Man C, Liverpool or Cheatski win it. That means 25% for everyone else. So perhaps we go into the FA Cup with a max 5% chance? Shows how hard it is to win trophies
 
AdamB said:
Interesting that my % corresponds to those odds. The way I was thinking about it was more dividing up 100% into the contenders. Something like:

30%-40%: Arse
25%-30%: Man U (given CL distraction)
20%-25%: us
5%-10%:West Ham
5%-10%: Wolves

I often think that turning it into % chances brings a dose a realism. For example, at the start of hte FA Cup, you'd say that its probably a say 75%+ chance that Man C, Liverpool or Cheatski win it. That means 25% for everyone else. So perhaps we go into the FA Cup with a max 5% chance? Shows how hard it is to win trophies
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If we are converting betting odds then it would be

Arse 54.5%
Man utd 26.7%
Spurs 25%
West ham 6.3%
Wolves 1.5%.

Currently.
 
Lilbaz said:
If we are converting betting odds then it would be

Arse 54.5%
Man utd 26.7%
Spurs 25%
West ham 6.3%
Wolves 1.5%.

Currently.
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Thanks. I think that over-states Arsenal and understates West Ham and Wolves. 1 unexpected defeat for Arsenal would change things substantially. It also implies that there's a 1 in 66 chance of Wolves finishing 4th
 
AdamB said:
Thanks. I think that over-states Arsenal and understates West Ham and Wolves. It implies that there's a 1 in 66 chance of Wolves finishing 4th
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That's the odds the bookies are giving for them. Not sure why. Maybe just how much money has been put on other teams is much higher than on wolves.
 
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