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The Crossroads...

Should we take a little caution though in looking at the fortunes of Man Utd and Arsenal since they departed with those managers? Neither have been able to find anyone anywhere near as good so far.

Both were always going to suffer having effectively been forced into institutional change. The entire structure of the clubs were centred on their long serving managers.

Poch has been here 5 years, he is nothing like as ingrained as they were, Im not sure the obvious down turn everyone expected at those clubs would apply here.

A quality manager, if it came to that, should have every chance of picking up the baton and running with it.

The only risk is in what choice of manager is made, nothing more weighted than that.
 
Both were always going to suffer having effectively been forced into institutional change. The entire structure of the clubs were centred on their long serving managers.

Poch has been here 5 years, he is nothing like as ingrained as they were, Im not sure the obvious down turn everyone expected at those clubs would apply here.

A quality manager, if it came to that, should have every chance of picking up the baton and running with it.

The only risk is in what choice of manager is made, nothing more weighted than that.
Which manager considered to be in that elite group of real top quality managers would be happy to join a club with the 6th biggest wage budget and 6th biggest transfer budget, yet expected to deliver constant top 4 finishes? Granted we might be able to attract somebody like Mourinho (available due to being sacked from his previous few positions due to not doing well enough despite having far more to spend than Levy has been giving his managers) but I think it's more likely we'll be having to take on an up and coming manager instead. That might mean the excitement of a Ten Haag or perhaps it would mean an Eddie Howe? I would rather be sure that Pochettino cannot rebuild this team before we take that gamble as the standard odds of 'most money available = most likely for team to be at the top' means we are more likely to regress compared to Pochettino's reign than we are to improve.
 
Poch doesn't have a tangible legacy yet that Ferguson and Wenger have.Its a blip we will become strong again but we need to have patience and keep our nerve.Most clubs would have dispensed with their manager after this type of run but we aren't most clubs.Levy gave him a 5 year contract he knows we got to a point where he couldn't afford to buy the players to take us to the next level so we went back a bit he would have expected that.It might get worse this season before it gets better but we will get back there.
 
Should we take a little caution though in looking at the fortunes of Man Utd and Arsenal since they departed with those managers? Neither have been able to find anyone anywhere near as good so far.

Arsenal's fortunes started turning after David Dein left. United have the finances to buy success same way City do, but the money the Glazers aren't taking they keep throwing away.

Levy is the key to continued success for us. We already had a very good squad and Poch happened to be the right fit at the right time to get the most out of it, but he might not be any more. His transfer record makes me very wary of having him in charge of a rebuild.
 
Which manager considered to be in that elite group of real top quality managers would be happy to join a club with the 6th biggest wage budget and 6th biggest transfer budget, yet expected to deliver constant top 4 finishes? Granted we might be able to attract somebody like Mourinho (available due to being sacked from his previous few positions due to not doing well enough despite having far more to spend than Levy has been giving his managers) but I think it's more likely we'll be having to take on an up and coming manager instead. That might mean the excitement of a Ten Haag or perhaps it would mean an Eddie Howe? I would rather be sure that Pochettino cannot rebuild this team before we take that gamble as the standard odds of 'most money available = most likely for team to be at the top' means we are more likely to regress compared to Pochettino's reign than we are to improve.

Despite peoples reluctance to accept it, Mourinho has worked within a budget before, and has clearly signalled he would be interested.

Similarly Allegri. Not that I like him at all, but his CV is impressive - Ive no doubt we could pull in Benitez as well.

There are quality managers that would be available to us. If we were to pursue that level/style/type of candidate.

Personally I like a more up and coming sort, thats the romantic in me. Ten Haag would be a very exciting move, and Ive already stated my appreciation for Espirito Santo. No Eddie Howe though, not yet, he isnt ripe enough.

And regardless of spending potential, we have an excellent squad - more than capable of finishing in the top 4, and IMO capable of a title push with a couple of key buys.

So despite our being the poor relation, we are also a club of enormous potential - and IMO an attractive prospect to just about anyone.

IF Poch has peaked, IF he has reached his limit, then a change is essential. And another change after that if necessary. Regular rotation of management staff has done Chelsea no harm at all, for example. Despite being scum, despite having to suffer two separate terms of Mourinho, they have gone from strength to strength and have a cabinet full of trophies to go with it. And in more recent years - without spending fortunes either.

While I prefer the idea of a long standing, stable management set up - it is not essential. And, as you point to the like of Wenger - its not even always preferable.

Lets assume Poch cannot rebuild this team, he will fail. By the time you have cottoned onto that - what will be the cost?

Can we afford to write off this season? Can we afford to let him spend next summer, only to find ourselves in the same place next November? Will we be able to keep the likes of Kane? Even with midtable finishes and a declining manager?

How long you let it go directly impacts how much it can cost the club. And potentially how far the club will be set back.

While I do not advocate sacking Poch off right now, I do think he is nearing the point of no return where things need to change - and fast - or else he will have to go.

I think blanket statements of "He should have the whole season regardless" are actually rather dangerous. He should only see the season out, IMO, if there are signs of improvement and the restoration of us to where we should be.

And where we should be, right now, is 3rd chasing the top 2. Thats not arrogance, thats not getting ahead of ones self or forgetting where we came from, thats a fair assessment of us as a club vs our rivals.

Over a quarter of the season gone, and we are twice as close to the relegation places as we are 4th, we are struggling in the CL and we have been knocked out of the League Cup by a League 2 minnow.

This is not over reaction, this is significant decline - unless we see some improvement there really can be only one outcome.

And the idea of time and patience is rapidly losing weight.
 
Should we take a little caution though in looking at the fortunes of Man Utd and Arsenal since they departed with those managers? Neither have been able to find anyone anywhere near as good so far.

Wenger Arsenal never recovered from losing the Champions League final in 2006. That was the first season Wenger finished outside the top 2.
Wenger never rebuilt. The club just meandered on exactly the same as they are now.
 
Wenger Arsenal never recovered from losing the Champions League final in 2006. That was the first season Wenger finished outside the top 2.
Wenger never rebuilt. The club just meandered on exactly the same as they are now.

While I agree with you - it is fair to say Wenger rebuilt at least once, if not twice, in his first 10 years.

He just ran out of steam and slipped into habit and stagnation after that, IMO.
 
Arsenal's fortunes started turning after David Dein left. United have the finances to buy success same way City do, but the money the Glazers aren't taking they keep throwing away.

Levy is the key to continued success for us. We already had a very good squad and Poch happened to be the right fit at the right time to get the most out of it, but he might not be any more. His transfer record makes me very wary of having him in charge of a rebuild.

This. His transfer record really isn't great.
 
As you know already I'm with you Steff. Something that I do wonder is whether there is a split between the fans that go to a most/many games vs those that are more casual fans? I have no idea whether or not this is the case, but I know that some of those wanting him gone on here are those that attend very few games. I go to pretty much all of the home games and a majority of the aways. From what I have experienced (specifically at the away games where it is 90% the same faces every game) the backing for Poch is still there. Perhaps that is because we are the fans that have had to sit through so much crap in over these last 25 years or so and realise that the last 4 years or so have been the best that we have had it for a long while and are taking the club back to where it belongs.

Pochettino has already built one excellent team at Spurs that was able to outpunch clubs with far larger resources. I think he deserves the backing to attempt to build a second iteration of that, especially now that our resources are moving closer to some of those 'bigger' clubs. I think some on here do not appreciate how hard it is to take a football club with the 6th biggest wage budget and, what?... 10th biggest transfer budget? into a regular CL qualification position. Pochettino is the only manager to have done this in the big European leagues. Of course Pochettino may not be able to repeat this but the odds are firmly in favour of us definitely NOT being able to repeat this if we bring in another manager. Of course we could get lucky, but we would be getting VERY lucky as no other clubs in Europe seem to have found this magic formula.

What I would like to see is Pochettino getting the FULL backing of his chairman for the next couple of years. That means discarding the players that the manager doesn't want even if it means getting 20, 30 or even 40% less than what the chairman considers their value to be and getting in the players the manager wants early even if it means not squeezing the selling club for every penny. Give the manager the tools that he needs and then lets see if he sinks or swims.

Great post and one i totally agree with.
 
I think Klopp might be the exception to that. I guess next two years will tell and/or when one of the front three leaves.

I didn't know about his 6 years at Dortmund statement. Very interesting. I really like his as a manager (That'll get me banned!) - very honest and self aware

No ban.
He is a trifle OTT for me on the touchline. But other than that I like him. He wins things which does help.
 
For me, the manager deserves the chance to try and build a side like that one more time, and having learnt where we fell short with this generation, improve it so as the next time we go one step beyond.
Sorry, but it's wishful thinking. Will Levy be able to buy that team, and when half of them arrive the day the window closes and aren't ready etc etc. If we win our next two games then I'd say give Poch till Christmas to see if he can turn it round. Otherwise, I don't see the nobility and romance of keeping a failing manager, and allowing the team to under-perform. And for what it is worth, I do go to games, having a ST in the south....
 
Arsenal's fortunes started turning after David Dein left. United have the finances to buy success same way City do, but the money the Glazers aren't taking they keep throwing away.

Levy is the key to continued success for us. We already had a very good squad and Poch happened to be the right fit at the right time to get the most out of it, but he might not be any more. His transfer record makes me very wary of having him in charge of a rebuild.
This is the squad that Poch inherited:
Lloris, Gomes, Friedel
Walker, Rose, Naughton, Fryers
Kaboul, Vertonghen, Chiriches, Dawson
Sandro, Capoue, Dembele, Paulinho
Lennon, Lamela, Townsend, Chadli, Siggurdson, Eriksen
Soldado, Adebayor, Kane

Some of the players above weren't considered to be brilliant before Poch came in (Walker, Rose, Kane, even Dembele). They improved through good coaching.

Here are each years transfers under Poch:
Under Poch we added
Year 1: Davies, Vorm, Dier, Yedlin, Fazio, Stambouli, Ali,
Year 2: Wimmer, Trippier, Alderweireld, N'Jie, Son
Year 3: Wanyama, Janssen, N'Koudou, Sissoko,
Year 4: Sanchez, Aurier, Gazzaniga, Foyth, Llorente, Moura
Year 5: Nobody
Year 6: N'Dombele, Lo Celso, Sessegnon, Clarke

I have bolded the players that I think have been reasonable (or better) signings, purposely leaving off Lo Celso and Sessegnon from this years crop as we haven't really seen them yet (I expect both to do well at Spurs though).

I think more signings than not have worked out OK or better. Also we didn't really lose too much money on the signings that didn't work out:

Yedlin (+£2.5M)
Fazio (-£5M (after two loans that probably brought half of this amount in loan fees)
Stambouli (+£1.3M
Wimmer (+£13.7M
N'Jie (-£2.3M)
Janssen (-£11.7M)
N'Koudou (-£4.8M)

So that's a maximum of only about a £5 million loss overall on those on those transfer "failures" (and probably nothing at all considering loan fees would've been brought in for Fazio, N'Jie and N'Koudou.

I'm absolutely fine with Poch being given money to spend.
 
People invest a lot of themselves and it becomes personal, emotive.

Its also a business. Both on and off the field.

These two things sometimes gel together beautifully, but often times clash.

Steff is clearly very invested, very romantic about the whole thing. Its admirable, but its not always objective.

Some people are very objective, perhaps coldly so, and I can completely understand that not being to the more emotive types liking.

Me? Theres what I want, and what I get, and an acceptance they are not always the same.

And thats where this conversation gets messy.

Steff talks about wanting a manager with integrity, someone to build a legacy, bring glory the more emotive/romantic way - and I can buy every word of it. I mean, who wouldnt?

Problem is, the flip side is - Im not seeing what he is seeing.

So as romantic as I might like to be, my objectivity doesnt support it at this time.

Ive said so many times this season, Ill take bad results - providing I can see the plan/work/project in place and being enacted. I just dont see it at this point. To the point where I very much am losing faith in Pochettino and his ability to pull it together.

Patience for patience sake is not a virtue. Poch needs to be earning it as we speak, not sitting on past successes hoping things will turn. We need to see the fruits of his labour on the training field. And I reiterate - thats not a results thing.

The job of a manager, ultimately, is to get the best out of the resources he has. Theres much besides, of course, but thats really what it boils down to.

When we were mid table and brick but had Jol getting the most out of that team - was anyone complaining? Even when we lost matches? Had an iffy run? Not really. We could see the work coming through and the team performing near its peak.

When AVB took a better group of players and turned them into manequins - was anyone complaining? Damn right! He should have been doing so much more with the players at hand.

Results wise these guys had similar seasons, but the view of them was entirely different. The reason being, one was getting near as much as possible out of the squad, and one wasnt.

When Jol went, I thought it was right, I thought he had reached his limit - where we had not. No animosity, no hard feelings, just an acceptance that it was time. When Redknapp went I thought exactly the same.

Poch? Its starting to feel that way.

I REALLY want to see him getting a grip on things, showing some direction, getting us playing. I really do. But as it is, we are miles from our best under him - let alone improving on that. There are deeper issues at play than just "injuries" "want away players" etc.

Romantically, I want nothing more than for Poch to wake up and really show his stuff. Objectively, this feels very much like an end of an era IMHO.

Have to say mate, whilst obviously I don’t agree with everything, I really appreciated both your response and the detail in it.
 
Which club has Mourinho ever worked at and been given the 6th biggest wage budget and 6th biggest (at best) transfer budget in that league?
União Desportiva de Leiria. ;)

I'm not arguing for him, but am I right in saying there are now only two teams that can out do us in wages and transfers?
 
What does that even matter? Its a straw man, a red herring.
It matters because in every football league in Europe the clubs who have the biggest budgets for wages and transfers are the clubs at the top of the league.

You had said that Mourinho has worked within a budget previously. Whereas I'm pretty sure that the budget Mourinho has worked within has always been one of the biggest budgets in the league he is managing in. I wonder how he would get on having to work with the 6th biggest budget and an expectation that he can be one of the best 3 clubs in the league with that 6th biggest budget?
 
It matters because in every football league in Europe the clubs who have the biggest budgets for wages and transfers are the clubs at the top of the league.

You had said that Mourinho has worked within a budget previously. Whereas I'm pretty sure that the budget Mourinho has worked within has always been one of the biggest budgets in the league he is managing in. I wonder how he would get on having to work with the 6th biggest budget and an expectation that he can be one of the best 3 clubs in the league with that 6th biggest budget?

Our budget is among the biggest, and its increasing - closing the gap.

It is also a point that, if you focus on it hard enough, completely ignores the quality of squad we have right now.
 
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