Summer 2018 transfer thread

[Gutter Boy]

Predictions for tomorrow then

- Alder and Rose to Man U in exchange for Fat Luke and Donkey Smalling
- Madrid come in hard for Eriksen to replace Kovacic

 

[MKSpur]

I love it either way [emoji28]

I have heard that about you..

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Yet another masterclass of a transfer window from Levy. After 2016 brought us the mighty talents of Sissoko, GKN and Janssen (plus Wanyama) and 2017 brought us Aurier's silky throw-in skills and all Llorente's goals (plus Sanchez), we look like we might be going even one better this time in signing no-one!!

If the stadium really is prevent us from signings players then we shouldn't have built such a bling stadium

Does that not just show you that really, as long as we keep the core of the team together, we'll probably be absolutely fine? And that, given Poch's quotes on the subject of team building and making signings vs not, it might actually be something that has helped us rather than hinder us?

2016 brought us Wanyama, and 2017 brought us Sanchez. Everyone else a squad player that was intended to fill space and not start in the first 11 every week. We may well make one signing tomorrow.

I wonder, if we had purely bought one player in 2016 and 2017, would everyone be so up in arms then? Or was it much better because we got the Janssen's, Sissoko's and GKN's of this world through the door too?

People always wonder why we aren't signing more players, forgetting that it might be more of a help to stick with what we have, and more of a hindrance to unbalance it with too many new players.

 

[AdamB]

Does that not just show you that really, as long as we keep the core of the team together, we'll probably be absolutely fine? And that, given Poch's quotes on the subject of team building and making signings vs not, it might actually be something that has helped us rather than hinder us?

2016 brought us Wanyama, and 2017 brought us Sanchez. Everyone else a squad player that was intended to fill space and not start in the first 11 every week. We may well make one signing tomorrow.

I wonder, if we had purely bought one player in 2016 and 2017, would everyone be so up in arms then? Or was it much better because we got the Janssen's, Sissoko's and GKN's of this world through the door too?

People always wonder why we aren't signing more players, forgetting that it might be more of a help to stick with what we have, and more of a hindrance to unbalance it with too many new players.

I'm not advocating lots of signings at all. However there's only a certain number of consecutive poor window which you can have on the trot without it impacting both results, and also whether your stars (eg Eriksen) buy into the progress of the team and want to stay.

Regarding your point on buying one player, doing the maths if someone has a 15 year career and never left, then signing 1 per year would give you a squad of 15 players plus home grown players. However that assumes all signings stay with you forever, which clearly isnt realistic so signing one successful player per summer isnt enough

 

[elyid]

Ironically, Schalke fans would have to Google who Danny Rose is....

(Hopefully he stays, unless he wants to leave for personal reasons in which case wish him well)

 

[BrainOfLevy]

I'm not advocating lots of signings at all. However there's only a certain number of consecutive poor window which you can have on the trot without it impacting both results, and also whether your stars (eg Eriksen) buy into the progress of the team and want to stay.

Regarding your point on buying one player, doing the maths if someone has a 15 year career and never left, then signing 1 per year would give you a squad of 15 players plus home grown players. However that assumes all signings stay with you forever, which clearly isnt realistic so signing one successful player per summer isnt enough

But you're calling it a poor window, or a poor 3 or 4 windows...why? 3 years, with 3 top 3 finishes. Eriksen's probably pretty happy with that, and pretty happy that he gets to play with people that work as hard as him, are as committed to improve as he is, with the understanding on the pitch that he has with them.

On your 2nd sentence, I wasn't being literal. I was taking an argument to its logical extreme. Obviously some summers will require more rebuilding than others. This isn't really one of them, especially considering the difficulty of the World Cup and the first early closure of the Transfer Window. Next summer it may be a very different story.

 

[AdamB]

But you're calling it a poor window, or a poor 3 or 4 windows...why? 3 years, with 3 top 3 finishes. Eriksen's probably pretty happy with that, and pretty happy that he gets to play with people that work as hard as him, are as committed to improve as he is, with the understanding on the pitch that he has with them.

On your 2nd sentence, I wasn't being literal. I was taking an argument to its logical extreme. Obviously some summers will require more rebuilding than others. This isn't really one of them, especially considering the difficulty of the World Cup and the first early closure of the Transfer Window. Next summer it may be a very different story.

Yep, 3 years in the top 3 is great...better than we could have expected, but after a while, a poor transfer record catches up with you. We've had 3 great seasons, but 3 poor/quiet summer transfer windows. Question is how many consecutive poor/quiet transfer windows can a club cope with before it impacts results?? We're hoping its more than 3!!!

Agreed we didnt need massive rebuilding or lots of signings. Hopefully another quiet window won't hit us this season, and hopefully we can still persuade Eriksen etc to stay with us next summer. The fear is that we end up finishing 5th /6th and then Eriksen (for example) decides we can't match his ambition and looks to leave

 

[monkeybarry]

We can't replace a HG with a non-HG

No. But we can sell toby, Dembele and Rose and bring in Maguire, Sessengon and that PSG dude!
Whoop!!

 

[monkeybarry]

Yet another masterclass of a transfer window from Levy. After 2016 brought us the mighty talents of Sissoko, GKN and Janssen (plus Wanyama) and 2017 brought us Aurier's silky throw-in skills and all Llorente's goals (plus Sanchez), we look like we might be going even one better this time in signing no-one!!

If the stadium really is prevent us from signings players then we shouldn't have built such a bling stadium

I know right, serious relegation fears again
It's sunny outside.....

 

[parklane1]

I know right, serious relegation fears again
It's sunny outside.....

Indeed, lets face it we are doomed.

 

[DeanoAustin]

But you're calling it a poor window, or a poor 3 or 4 windows...why? 3 years, with 3 top 3 finishes. Eriksen's probably pretty happy with that, and pretty happy that he gets to play with people that work as hard as him, are as committed to improve as he is, with the understanding on the pitch that he has with them.

On your 2nd sentence, I wasn't being literal. I was taking an argument to its logical extreme. Obviously some summers will require more rebuilding than others. This isn't really one of them, especially considering the difficulty of the World Cup and the first early closure of the Transfer Window. Next summer it may be a very different story.

Ah come on mate. Eriksen is 26 and a Rolls Royce of a player. Do you really think he’s going to be happy playing for a side that competes for a CL spot every year but wins nothing? A side that invests much, much less than its rivals in both transfer fees and wages?

 

[imcallingbullsh*t]

IF we can get Martial, Grealish and 1 other in - and
Llorente, Nkoudou, Toby out thats i guess the best scenario and would max our numbers

Rose obviously then may be moved out with KWP as new backup LB, rightly or wrongly.

The 1 other being a CB to replace Toby or a CM that would cover Dier if he was needed at CB

Anything else doesnt work with the squad numbers, yes i just made a spreadsheet at midnight what of it ;/



I'd Add i think not getting a 3rd English keeper and getting Jonny Evans in to allow us flexibility was a bit short sighted, although Evans may have wanted first team football which we wouldnt have offered

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Yet another masterclass of a transfer window from Levy. After 2016 brought us the mighty talents of Sissoko, GKN and Janssen (plus Wanyama) and 2017 brought us Aurier's silky throw-in skills and all Llorente's goals (plus Sanchez), we look like we might be going even one better this time in signing no-one!!

If the stadium really is prevent us from signings players then we shouldn't have built such a bling stadium

Levy and that effing stadium!

The only thing that can salvage this now is glory holes installed in the long bar in the south stand......anything less.......i'm done

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Ah come on mate. Eriksen is 26 and a Rolls Royce of a player. Do you really think he’s going to be happy playing for a side that competes for a CL spot every year but wins nothing? A side that invests much, much less than its rivals in both transfer fees and wages?

Of course I don't. But it's the idea that a 'poor' window means 'no signings' rather than it actually being a good thing for cohesion, or maybe good window because 'we kept all of our star players'. I'm sure he'd be much more concerned had Kane not signed up right at the start of the summer, or had Poch let the Real speculation drag on.

I fully believe Levy wants us to reach the top. But he's going to take the long view to get us there sustainably rather than gamble on one season of glory. But regardless, I still don't know who the obvious signings were for us to make this summer, particularly given that we haven't had good bids for Dembele and Toby. In amongst all the angst from Spurs fans online, I don't think there's been one single player named that's made me think 'brick, yes, definite improvement, definitely affordable/gettable (slightly different things), definite space for them, and would definitely come'.

 

[the goat]

Levy's had 2 other season at the winter transfer window where taking a bit of a risk and we may have won the league ( saha & Nelson season & the Leicester season) he won't take a risk & he always thinks he can get things on the cheap,
I think player wise this was he's last chance, why should our best players stay after this first season in the NWHL, they don't get top money they don't get chance of top medals why stay ?

 

[DeanoAustin]

Of course I don't. But it's the idea that a 'poor' window means 'no signings' rather than it actually being a good thing for cohesion, or maybe good window because 'we kept all of our star players'. I'm sure he'd be much more concerned had Kane not signed up right at the start of the summer, or had Poch let the Real speculation drag on.

I fully believe Levy wants us to reach the top. But he's going to take the long view to get us there sustainably rather than gamble on one season of glory. But regardless, I still don't know who the obvious signings were for us to make this summer, particularly given that we haven't had good bids for Dembele and Toby. In amongst all the angst from Spurs fans online, I don't think there's been one single player named that's made me think 'brick, yes, definite improvement, definitely affordable/gettable (slightly different things), definite space for them, and would definitely come'.

Not improving our squad would make this a bad window. Not signing up Harry and Poch would have made it disastrous.

If Levy is taking the long view in this way then we have to accept we aren’t going any further with this group of players. We won’t win the league with them. City are too far ahead, Liverpool look a better squad than us and we’ll find it hard to finish ahead of United and Chelsea. Arsenal and Everton could also threaten us. If we get top 4 this season, that’s massive success in my book.

We can afford a couple of 70m-80m players on big wages. Our wages to turnover ratio is the lowest in the league. If we raised our wages to turnover ratio to Liverpool’s 57% (and Liverpool have far from the highest ratio in the league), that gives us an extra 58m to play with. We’ve given Kane around 5m extra if reports of 100k a week extra are correct.

Levy is choosing not to go down that route and is holding back the money for the stadium to ensure we borrow as little as possible (at least that’s my assumption). The danger is that if we don’t improve the squad, we fall out of the top 4 and don’t get back there quickly. We then lose a lot of future revenue and this squad starts to break up. Then the extra 50m the stadium brings in is really only replacing the lost CL money, the lost prize money and the lost commercial revenue.

I really think now is the time to loosen the purse strings and that Levy is getting this badly wrong. However, his tenure has been an incredible success and he has improved us in a way that no other club has managed without a sugar daddy. Under him, if we fall, he’s made sure we’ll never fall very far. I still have faith in him, he’s the best chairman in the league, but I think he has caught lightening in a bottle with this manager and players and is allowing it to get away.

 

[MKSpur]

Levy and that effing stadium!

The only thing that can salvage this now is glory holes installed in the long bar in the south stand......anything less.......i'm done

Glory glory holes??

 

[nayenezgani]

We've renewed important players contracts and put them on good money though...

 

[BrainOfLevy]

Not improving our squad would make this a bad window. Not signing up Harry and Poch would have made it disastrous.

If Levy is taking the long view in this way then we have to accept we aren’t going any further with this group of players. We won’t win the league with them. City are too far ahead, Liverpool look a better squad than us and we’ll find it hard to finish ahead of United and Chelsea. Arsenal and Everton could also threaten us. If we get top 4 this season, that’s massive success in my book.

We can afford a couple of 70m-80m players on big wages. Our wages to turnover ratio is the lowest in the league. If we raised our wages to turnover ratio to Liverpool’s 57% (and Liverpool have far from the highest ratio in the league), that gives us an extra 58m to play with. We’ve given Kane around 5m extra if reports of 100k a week extra are correct.

Levy is choosing not to go down that route and is holding back the money for the stadium to ensure we borrow as little as possible (at least that’s my assumption). The danger is that if we don’t improve the squad, we fall out of the top 4 and don’t get back there quickly. We then lose a lot of future revenue and this squad starts to break up. Then the extra 50m the stadium brings in is really only replacing the lost CL money, the lost prize money and the lost commercial revenue.

I really think now is the time to loosen the purse strings and that Levy is getting this badly wrong. However, his tenure has been an incredible success and he has improved us in a way that no other club has managed without a sugar daddy. Under him, if we fall, he’s made sure we’ll never fall very far. I still have faith in him, he’s the best chairman in the league, but I think he has caught lightening in a bottle with this manager and players and is allowing it to get away.

I understand all of that, I just decide to trust that he has done the sums and figures that we can’t base the club on finishing top 4 every year, when there are 6 teams that would expect it. So adding however many million, really ‘pushing on’ for a season or whatever isn’t really required. It doesn’t alter the long term strategy.

I believe he wants to take us to the very top. I just think it may mean we spend 3-5 years in one state before progressing consistently to the level above. Any risk to make that come sooner may work, but it may not, and it may set us down a downward curve. We see this so much with clubs, they get on curves whether upward or downward. We’ve broadly been upward under Levy once we figured out the financial strategy to invest in players with sell on value. You see teams like Swansea or Villa that spent some money, didn’t get the success they wanted, scrambled to sign more players, nothing worked, those players had no sell on value, quality ones couldn’t be replaced and that’s how the downward curve begins.

I’m not saying we’re about to get relegated. Just that, relative to our position, right now we don’t need to start spending even Liverpool money. We’ll get top 6, and I don’t think it’s right to have a plan that requires top 4. Then, perhaps once we’ve really consolidated in the new stadium, that’s when we crank the gears again to go up another level. But always keeping on the long term upward curve.

That, or Levy wants to keep us as competitive as possible as one of the big 6, with fantastic finances, so that we are a great acquisition target for someone and it maximises ENIC returns. Then we really push on once getting a sugar daddy. Maybe that’s the plan. I don’t know for sure, but as I said, I just don’t know where these obvious 80M players are. And if you sign them on big wages, what does that mean for the structure of the rest of the wage budget? Because it’s not about whether we can afford it right now, it’s wherher we can afford it when everyone thinks they deserved to be bumped relative to the new top earner. And it’s at that point the sustainability question and long term upward curve again comes into question.

 

[DeanoAustin]

I understand all of that, I just decide to trust that he has done the sums and figures that we can’t base the club on finishing top 4 every year, when there are 6 teams that would expect it. So adding however many million, really ‘pushing on’ for a season or whatever isn’t really required. It doesn’t alter the long term strategy.

I believe he wants to take us to the very top. I just think it may mean we spend 3-5 years in one state before progressing consistently to the level above. Any risk to make that come sooner may work, but it may not, and it may set us down a downward curve. We see this so much with clubs, they get on curves whether upward or downward. We’ve broadly been upward under Levy once we figured out the financial strategy to invest in players with sell on value. You see teams like Swansea or Villa that spent some money, didn’t get the success they wanted, scrambled to sign more players, nothing worked, those players had no sell on value, quality ones couldn’t be replaced and that’s how the downward curve begins.

I’m not saying we’re about to get relegated. Just that, relative to our position, right now we don’t need to start spending even Liverpool money. We’ll get top 6, and I don’t think it’s right to have a plan that requires top 4. Then, perhaps once we’ve really consolidated in the new stadium, that’s when we crank the gears again to go up another level. But always keeping on the long term upward curve.

That, or Levy wants to keep us as competitive as possible as one of the big 6, with fantastic finances, so that we are a great acquisition target for someone and it maximises ENIC returns. Then we really push on once getting a sugar daddy. Maybe that’s the plan. I don’t know for sure, but as I said, I just don’t know where these obvious 80M players are. And if you sign them on big wages, what does that mean for the structure of the rest of the wage budget? Because it’s not about whether we can afford it right now, it’s wherher we can afford it when everyone thinks they deserved to be bumped relative to the new top earner. And it’s at that point the sustainability question and long term upward curve again comes into question.

And all that is fair enough mate. It’s different than my view but I see your logic.

On the wages, I’m not advocating that we go to Liverpool’s level in absolute terms. I’m talking about going there relatively. 57% of our turnover is a lot less than 57% of their turnover. But it still gives us an extra 58m. We’ve given Kane 5 of that. There would still be a tonne of money left for the rest. Give the 25 man squad an extra 30k on average a week and you still have enough left over for a couple of 200k a week players. And that’s not banking on CL money because even if we lose that, the stadium will bring in enough to plug the gap.

Levy has his strategy here. I think he’s wrong and too risk averse but time will prove him right or wrong and he’s earned the chance to do that. But, as fans, we probably have to accept that this side will do exceptionally well to reach the top 4 and will break up over the next few years.