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Roberto De Zerbi *OFFICIAL*

Mental fatigue in this case. Poch had us going deep in Europe and Cups playing high intensity football and he rarely used more than 15 outfield players in 10+ games. But because we were winning it was not an issue.

I think it is all of it.
Agreed re: Poch (albeit he wanted to refresh after two seasons) but I think covid and that weird World Cup (plus Nations League) changed things even more with regards to load on players in all senses. I wonder if this is why football has currently become so 'set-piece alpha' where the big gains come from smashing people at dead ball situations?
 
I do worry too that we have some sort of negative chemistry between the fans and the players, and that might be contributing to the bad finishing and the silly errors at the back. Eg I don’t think the goals we conceded against Villa were system errors (which is a plus in the column for RDZ’s coaching) but it doesn’t take away from the fact that we simply need to score, and ultimately win some games to build a sense of momentum and confidence, among players and fans.

The more positive outlook is, if RDZ often takes time to really start getting results playing his way, it would probably look like what we are seeing right now. We’d ideally have one more win in there somewhere so far, and with better finishing we would have had a couple. So hopefully we’ll get there.

The other thing is, taking him at his word about the physical condition of the players, it’s in some part players needing to actually get fit (Solanke, Maddison, Kudus, Porro) and in some part players like Savio and Marmoush needing to get comfortable that they are the key players here, not the supporting act (his comments around them being ‘the protagonists) and that’s a different kind of fitness and expectation because they’re consistently starting, not coming into a settled side against a tired opposition.

Where I’m concerned, or where players shouldn’t be struggling with fitness, is Tel, Tonali, Fernandes, VDV, JPVH, Gray. But maybe this all just adds to the sense of disconnection. Most of our attack is finding its way or unfit, most of our midfield and defence is settling in and building new connections. So maybe this is just the tough period we have to get through. It’s the consequence of levelling up the squad and trying to do it all in one window. We just don’t have a settled side that is fit and firing, for one reason or another.

I do think we’ll ultimately be ok. This may be a transitional season rather than a memorable one, but I think we’ll get there. Arteta had an 8th place finish. Hopefully we’ll put it all together in time to have a great FA Cup run this season. I do like that our owners showed a lot of patience with Frank - I think he was the wrong guy but I think to go all in on RDZ and his signings, to then look for someone else if the tough run extends…I’m not sure who else we get that does better with this specific group of players. I think we just need to let it all work itself through. But it’s gonna be tough, and there’s probably going to be some nervous times still until we get there.

If there is anyone here who is relying on Maddison, I'd say they are misplacing their thoughts. Bless him I hope I'm wrong but don't think I am. Solanke? I cannot wrap my head around it. Kudus? He's fit now it seems? Pedro? So much accumulated football over the last few seasons so agreed...Savio and Marmoush? If they are in that mindset, then I have to say 150 million or whatever for the pair of them is outrageously over-priced. When a club chases you like that, when a manager praises you like that, I expect you to walk in like Billius Big gonadus and throw down. Just my view, albeit I accept the synergy angle is a factor for sure.

Tel has been fit and available, so not an issue there with fitness (albeit perhaps you meant in a greater sense). Tonali? I have no idea, and agree it is a big concern. Fernandes I also don't really understand unless West Ham were playing him hurt last season at times? VdV and JP, lots of football and World Cup too. Archie? i feel sorry for him as he is fit and not playing in his favored position.

I think your 8th place finish feels about right with optimism that we will start finding more goals. My fear is that 2026 life won't allow the patience needed to see it start coming together.
 
For those looking for some light at end of tunnel .. post on reddit basically claims RDZ start at Brighton was exactly same (2 points in 5 league games). Next match was a win and kick on from there

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For those looking for some light at end of tunnel .. post on reddit basically claims RDZ start at Brighton was exactly same (2 points in 5 league games). Next match was a win and kick on from there

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I saw this earlier…did a double take because I was struggling to understand how a team could be 8th one season with 2 points and 20th in another with 2 points also. Is that actually right? Was the league distribution just so different then?
 
I saw this earlier…did a double take because I was struggling to understand how a team could be 8th one season with 2 points and 20th in another with 2 points also. Is that actually right? Was the league distribution just so different then?

RDZ joined after Potter left for Chelsea. So it's likely it's the 2 point Brighton got under RDZ's tenure rather that 2 points from their season as a whole (which would include points gained under Potter)
 
If there is anyone here who is relying on Maddison, I'd say they are misplacing their thoughts. Bless him I hope I'm wrong but don't think I am. Solanke? I cannot wrap my head around it. Kudus? He's fit now it seems? Pedro? So much accumulated football over the last few seasons so agreed...Savio and Marmoush? If they are in that mindset, then I have to say 150 million or whatever for the pair of them is outrageously over-priced. When a club chases you like that, when a manager praises you like that, I expect you to walk in like Billius Big gonadus and throw down. Just my view, albeit I accept the synergy angle is a factor for sure.

Tel has been fit and available, so not an issue there with fitness (albeit perhaps you meant in a greater sense). Tonali? I have no idea, and agree it is a big concern. Fernandes I also don't really understand unless West Ham were playing him hurt last season at times? VdV and JP, lots of football and World Cup too. Archie? i feel sorry for him as he is fit and not playing in his favored position.

I think your 8th place finish feels about right with optimism that we will start finding more goals. My fear is that 2026 life won't allow the patience needed to see it start coming together.

Those were not my opinions on who I was relying on, rater just the general sense of disconnection in the squad as everyone gets up to speed. It’s that some players are unfit, some aren’t used to starting every week, and some are adjusting to a new club that is expected to play proactive rather than reactive football every week.

But this can’t go on. This group has to either ‘get fit’ (whatever that means) and figure it out pretty quickly. These players have too much quality, reputations that are too big and are on too high wages for it to continue. And I believe it will figure itself out.
 
ok calm down everyone
View attachment 23450
We will get there

Most of that means little wrt painting a picture of whether results are due to improve - although ironically the biggest indicator among that lot is our expected goals which is tracking at relegation form. Any side with lower than an xg of 40 (a little over 1 per game) has been relegated. We're currently at 1 per game. I would think that should improve as we get more used to the tactics and players settle more though.
 
So, this shows that we should sit on more points than we do. Still not great, but as a clear work in progress, I'd take 6-7 points at this stage. But we really need at least 4 points, preferably 6, from the next two games!

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I’m going to be crude, but when I look at this team, I feel like they have no balls.
They don't have a winning mentality—
except maybe for Bentancur and Marmoush, who actually puts in the running.

We didn't sign a guy like Palhinha for 35 million. He was top-notch defensively and contributed in attack with his goals. Same goes for Romero; he was a hothead, sure, but he was tenacious and scored quite a few goals.

Everyone called him a troublemaker, but seriously, when you see your teammates aren't giving it their all, you're bound to get tinkled off.

Look at the aerial duels and the rest—we don't win many of them.

Our players look like the ideal sons-in-law you'd want for your daughters.

We're too nice; I'll say it again, we need to be bastards. Mourinho, Conte, and Tudor understood that.

If only we’d given Mourinho and Conte a 400-million budget back then... Spurs would have reached for the stars.
I've said that too. You don't see the fight and determination to win every personal duel like you see in some other teams.
It's not like they don't give a brick, but I just don't see any one of them going into duels looking like they want to win it no matter what! It's more like "if I win it, good. If not, well that's a shame. Maybe next time".

And it makes a massive difference!
 
Most of that means little wrt painting a picture of whether results are due to improve - although ironically the biggest indicator among that lot is our expected goals which is tracking at relegation form. Any side with lower than an xg of 40 (a little over 1 per game) has been relegated. We're currently at 1 per game. I would think that should improve as we get more used to the tactics and players settle more though.

Let me start by saying, no stat will help us if we don't start winning games soon, and consistently. That said, xG (especially as being applied in our case) is deeply flawed. The example would be (think it was against Everton) the chance Fernandes had running into box/edge of box, where he took a bad touch, then eventually took the shot. The final shot had a much lower xG that had he taken it first time, effectively the same play, that's a flaw in the model.

There is a Youtube analyst (Enya?) that talks about it being a funnel, possession -> progressive passes -> passes in final third -> touches in box -> xG. If you just had xG with none of the rest, it's not a real reflection, we are consistently winning the entire funnel except xG (argumentatively says we are a lot closer than not).

Fact is last season at this time the data said we were a lot worse than the results we were getting, this season it's the opposite.

Either way, the next 3-5 games are crucial, Coventry and Palace at home could get very ugly
 
Let me start by saying, no stat will help us if we don't start winning games soon, and consistently. That said, xG (especially as being applied in our case) is deeply flawed. The example would be (think it was against Everton) the chance Fernandes had running into box/edge of box, where he took a bad touch, then eventually took the shot. The final shot had a much lower xG that had he taken it first time, effectively the same play, that's a flaw in the model.

There is a Youtube analyst (Enya?) that talks about it being a funnel, possession -> progressive passes -> passes in final third -> touches in box -> xG. If you just had xG with none of the rest, it's not a real reflection, we are consistently winning the entire funnel except xG (argumentatively says we are a lot closer than not).

Fact is last season at this time the data said we were a lot worse than the results we were getting, this season it's the opposite.

Either way, the next 3-5 games are crucial, Coventry and Palace at home could get very ugly



You say we're winning the funnel, which i agree is what we are *starting* to see, briefly in the Everton and Villa games, but unless the attacking unit do their part too it will not carry us far. Goals win you games, if you're not creating chances you're not likely to score many goals, if you're not not scoring many goals you will be in trouble - no matter how good your build up play is.

And specifically, regarding the stats shown in the post i quoted, they don't really show we're doing much other than being good at carrying the ball - either in regards to winning deuls or moving the ball forward. If there's a link between that and winning games I'd be interested in hearing about it.


Despite our high possession average of 60%, we have faced 76 shots so far which is the 4th highest in the league - which suggests we are defending poorly too.
 
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You say we're winning the funnel, which i agree is what we are *starting* to see, briefly in the Everton and Villa games, but unless the attacking unit do their part too it will not carry us far. Goals win you games, if you're not creating chances you're not likely to score many goals, if you're not not scoring many goals you will be in trouble - no matter how good your build up play is.

And specifically, regarding the stats shown in the post i quoted, they don't really show we're doing much other than being good at carrying the ball - either in regards to winning deuls or moving the ball forward. If there's a link between that and winning games I'd be interested in hearing about it.


Despite our high possession average of 60%, we have faced 76 shots so far which is the 4th highest in the league - which suggests we are defending poorly too.

Good points.

We are essentially hoping for the following...

1) Goals to start arriving from a group of players who statistically don't score many
2) Confidence to rise quickly from a group of players who are relatively new to each other (especially in key areas)
3) Fighting spirit to generate from a group of players still somewhat under the shadow of the previous season even if they weren't at the club at that time.
4) The discovery of enough fitness to be able to play multiple games with a stable line-up and great options off the bench for changes at key moments.

Of those four, only one feels nailed on and that is number 4. Everything else is wildly unpredictable.
 
I would hope this:

1. Three more weeks to get back some other players. More specifically the ones that play at AM. Fitter will be faster.
2. Lets be specific though. Players that did not score in the PL but did elsewhere. So there is hope.
3. Hopefully the break and the fact we have at least scored gets a monkey off their back.
 
Good points.

We are essentially hoping for the following...

1) Goals to start arriving from a group of players who statistically don't score many
2) Confidence to rise quickly from a group of players who are relatively new to each other (especially in key areas)
3) Fighting spirit to generate from a group of players still somewhat under the shadow of the previous season even if they weren't at the club at that time.
4) The discovery of enough fitness to be able to play multiple games with a stable line-up and great options off the bench for changes at key moments.

Of those four, only one feels nailed on and that is number 4. Everything else is wildly unpredictable.

5) A sudden ability to defend from players who have shown no such ability previously.
6) A sudden increase in wrist rigidity from our keeper.
 
I've said that too. You don't see the fight and determination to win every personal duel like you see in some other teams.
It's not like they don't give a brick, but I just don't see any one of them going into duels looking like they want to win it no matter what! It's more like "if I win it, good. If not, well that's a shame. Maybe next time".

And it makes a massive difference!

I worry too about where RDZ is already. From the shots of the bench during the game at the weekend he looked like he’d accepted defeat once the second goal went in, and the frequent throwing of players under the bus suggests someone who is already looking for something to blame should he exit.

There doesn’t seem to be any of the passion he showed on the sidelines when at Brighton.

I hope that I’m wrong, but I worry that we’ve broken another one already and hope these three weeks allow for a re-set.
 
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