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Putin & Russia

Glenda's Legs said:
Can’t say I have followed this closely at all but the consensus from political commentators seems to be that Progozhin v Putin is far from over.
I’m really not sure whether to be interested from afar or slightly (or more?) scared of how it might unravel.
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Yeah, won’t be over until Progozhin is dead.

Which will be…. Any…. Second….
 
I am not at all sure what to think about all of this. Obviously the media love it and the experts are enjoying themselves, but something doesnt quite add up. The conspiracy theorists are saying that they cooked it up between them, and this is all a distraction, but heaven knows what for. To confuse Ukrain so they over extend the offensive? It does seem odd that a deal was struck so quickly and that the Wagner troops are to be merged into the regular army no more comments made from Progozhin about it (maybe he cant say anything). I think that the most likely outcome is a break up of the Wagner forces and Progozhin gets killed either by Russia or his own troops who feel that he has deserted them. Perhaps the loss of the Wagner troops gives Putin an excuse to call up the reservists? Unfortunately this does not mean an end to the war and the suffering.

Just read that the whole thing was infact bought about by Putin agreeing that the Wagner Group sign normal military contracts by July 1st. I dont know how I missed that.
 
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relic58 said:
I am not at all sure what to think about all of this. Obviously the media love it and the experts are enjoying themselves, but something doesnt quite add up. The conspiracy theorists are saying that they cooked it up between them, and this is all a distraction, but heaven knows what for. To confuse Ukrain so they over extend the offensive? It does seem odd that a deal was struck so quickly and that the Wagner troops are to be merged into the regular army with no comment from Progozhin about it (maybe he cant say anything). I think that the most likely outcome is a break up of the Wagner forces and Progozhin gets killed either by Russia or his own troops who feel that he has deserted them. Perhaps the loss of the Wagner troops gives Putin an excuse to call up the reservists? Unfortunately this does not mean an end to the war and the suffering.
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yeah, the only predictable tactic of putin is false flag fudgery
 
SpurMeUp said:
Iraq was invaded because a son wanted to finish something his Dad started, ultimately. The irony was he dad knew a lot more than he did about the complexity and how messy it could become. That is why Bush senior walked away and left the job unfinished - a wise move as proven by the horrid mess his son created. A least a million dead. The creation of ISIS, and the subsequent related conflicts in region. Bush senior was right to walk away.
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I'm fairly sure that even in the US, one person can't just decide to start a war and go ahead with it. It needs the backing of hundreds of people in the command/legislature structure and thousands more to carry it out.

If Iraq had complied with the terms of the ceasefire, it would still be in place.

SpurMeUp said:
Did the West or the drunks ‘win’ in Syria? Such a simplification is stupid but it works as a retort!
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I hadn't noticed we had troops in Syria - must have missed that bit.
 
scaramanga said:
I'm fairly sure that even in the US, one person can't just decide to start a war and go ahead with it. It needs the backing of hundreds of people in the command/legislature structure and thousands more to carry it out.

If Iraq had complied with the terms of the ceasefire, it would still be in place.


I hadn't noticed we had troops in Syria - must have missed that bit.
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The President can’t impose their will. Sure.

Syria was a proxy war. You said Russia couldn’t have intervened in Iraq (doing what the west are doing in Ukraine now) because they were inebriated! I flagged that the Russian side defeated the western side in Syria. No doubt this ‘loss’ energises those in the US who take these post-cold war things extremely seriously. And ensured they would not let Russia have another ‘win’ in Ukraine.
 
SpurMeUp said:
The President can’t impose their will. Sure.

Syria was a proxy war. You said Russia couldn’t have intervened in Iraq (doing what the west are doing in Ukraine now) because they were inebriated! I flagged that the Russian side defeated the western side in Syria. No doubt this ‘loss’ energises those in the US who take these post-cold war things extremely seriously. And ensured they would not let Russia have another ‘win’ in Ukraine.
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I think you've missed the point. Russian forces are struggling against Ukrainian forces, despite (mostly) larger number of troops and most types of weapons. Going up against combined NATO forces would be a joke.

You can't measure the result of what direct conflict would have been by success in proxy wars - they're not even vaguely similar.
 
scaramanga said:
think you've missed the point. Russian forces are struggling against Ukrainian forces, despite (mostly) larger number of troops and most types of weapons. Going up against combined NATO forces would be a joke.
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War is not the same now...modern weapons (mainly drones) give everyone the chance to make inroads, impact and to be taken seriously.

It's a gift, even to terrorists.
 
scaramanga said:
  1. Russian forces are struggling against Ukrainian forces, despite (mostly) larger number of troops and most types of weapons.
  2. Going up against combined NATO forces would be a joke.
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  1. Caveat being that if not for the Western aid with equipment, training, ammunition etc etc - the picture would have been very different.
    It's good their being helped to stand their ground and fight back, but the fact can't be overlooked imo.
  2. And despite widespread understanding of this fact, it is used as a rallying call, fear stoking message, that if Ukraine fails Europe is next.
    This part always baffles me in the media and with Zelensky (thou should be expected from him as he is v media savvy from prior job) - Russia can't win vs a country supplied with some Western equipment, but will attempt to go against 27 combined forces if they by some miracle happen to win their "special operation." I'll have two of what their smoking pls.
 
Trixster said:
  1. Caveat being that if not for the Western aid with equipment, training, ammunition etc etc - the picture would have been very different.
    It's good their being helped to stand their ground and fight back, but the fact can't be overlooked imo.
  2. And despite widespread understanding of this fact, it is used as a rallying call, fear stoking message, that if Ukraine fails Europe is next.
    This part always baffles me in the media and with Zelensky (thou should be expected from him as he is v media savvy from prior job) - Russia can't win vs a country supplied with some Western equipment, but will attempt to go against 27 combined forces if they by some miracle happen to win their "special operation." I'll have two of what their smoking pls.
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1 is true, but they're still heavily outnumbered for people and equipment - even with our help. The training and the planning that we're offering just goes to show what a one-sided battle it would be if Russia were ever stupid enough to try.

I agree with 2, but it's not NATO countries that should be concerned, it's all of those within Russia's grasp that don't have our protection.
 
Trixster said:
  1. Caveat being that if not for the Western aid with equipment, training, ammunition etc etc - the picture would have been very different.
    It's good their being helped to stand their ground and fight back, but the fact can't be overlooked imo.
  2. And despite widespread understanding of this fact, it is used as a rallying call, fear stoking message, that if Ukraine fails Europe is next.
    This part always baffles me in the media and with Zelensky (thou should be expected from him as he is v media savvy from prior job) - Russia can't win vs a country supplied with some Western equipment, but will attempt to go against 27 combined forces if they by some miracle happen to win their "special operation." I'll have two of what their smoking pls.
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Georgia and Moldovia would have been next in Russia's sights. Neither are NATO members.
 
scaramanga said:
1 is true, but they're still heavily outnumbered for people and equipment - even with our help. The training and the planning that we're offering just goes to show what a one-sided battle it would be if Russia were ever stupid enough to try.

I agree with 2, but it's not NATO countries that should be concerned, it's all of those within Russia's grasp that don't have our protection.
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Yes, agree there with you and @Gutter Boy re point 2 - but the blurb and panic messages are all about Europe being next, which (as said) doesn't make a jot of sense.
I guess it is not so much of a rallying cry to mention the lesser known places, but mention Europe and it draws ones attention.

I'll agree on point one for the number, but despite that I would put favour purely in Ukraine's corner - they are fighting for something, their land, and that makes them much much more powerful.
 
Trixster said:
Yes, agree there with you and @Gutter Boy re point 2 - but the blurb and panic messages are all about Europe being next, which (as said) doesn't make a jot of sense.
I guess it is not so much of a rallying cry to mention the lesser known places, but mention Europe and it draws ones attention.

I'll agree on point one for the number, but despite that I would put favour purely in Ukraine's corner - they are fighting for something, their land, and that makes them much much more powerful.
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The Baltics, Poland and Czech Rep etc. will always been nervous because things like the Prague Spring are still within living memory for much of their populations.
 
Gutter Boy said:
The Baltics, Poland and Czech Rep etc. will always been nervous because things like the Prague Spring are still within living memory for much of their populations.
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You say that, yet living here and being out and about, when talking to the locals it is far from their minds. Or at least in the circles I am out with.
We have locations in Poland too, and even the folk there aren't overly bothered about it.

The last time I was talking to a member of the older generation was on a train to Horni Mecholupy and she was quite unimpressed with Russia, wasn't phased by them at all. Surprisingly she was more hacked off with the influx of Ukrainians, especially as they were the wall-to-wall people in the carriage we were in.
(But then I guess old people and their ways.. Though I am a cantankerous old brick myself lol)
 
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