Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
Just a frozen conflict. The same as there already is in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia
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Putin & Russia
- Thread starter Rorschach
- Start date
Just a frozen conflict. The same as there already is in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia
Gazza Dazzla
Chris Perry
Except this time Russia will still be under sanctions, for whatever that’s worth.
Baleforce
Les Bennett
Arthur Snell’s Doomsday Watch podcast is worth listening to.
johnola
Jermaine Jenas
Do not forget this started in 2014.
Have a look at Mick Ryan (a retired Aussie general) on twitter and the like for some useful insights.
Many commentators think Russia have no ongoing plan, as Putin expected a walkover.
Reasonably soon (winter probably) Russia will start the media campaign for a ceasefire.
The ceasefire will demark the current front lines (or at that time) to temporarily* stop the fighting.
There will be pressure across the West to agree to a ceasefire because no killing is better than killing and it's only temporary, right? That will mean the EU can temporarily* reduce the restrictions on Russian gas and oil - perfect timing in the winter when demand is so high.
As there's a ceasefire, there won't be any weapon or military aid shipments to Ukraine but Russia will replenish theirs.
Over time, people will just gradually forget (or conveniently not think) about it. The BBC will still use maps where the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine are shaded differently with tiny sub-print stating that we don't recognise it as Russian territory and we'll officially recognise (but not support) the freedom fighters in that area.
*Nothing in politics is as permanent as the temporary.
glasgowspur
Andy Thompson
Lets be honest if it wasn't for the cost of gas and the pressure that is putting on the everyone the news cycle would have moved on from Ukraine by now.
I think there's genuine determination to help Ukraine, I just don't think it extends as far as a winter without gas.
In 2021, the year before the war, 48% of respondents evaluated Russia’s economic situation as ‘average’; 41%, as ‘bad’; and as few as 9%, as ‘good’. In July of 2022, 57% perceive the country’s economic situation as ‘average’.
Most importantly, 40% of Russians believe that in a year life in Russia will be ‘better than now’. Fewer respondents (27%) think it will remain ‘as it is now’, and even fewer sceptics (18%) expect life to be ‘worse than now’.
47% are convinced that Russia will see ‘some improvement in political life’ in a year while another 13% believe in ‘significant improvement’.
Do the know about what's happening in Ukraine? What about sanctions? 56% say they follow situation closely. Around half believe 'SMO' will end within a year another half think it will take even longer
Is this the work of propaganda? Are these Russians happy about destructions in Ukraine?
In March 51% of Russians said that Special Military Operation brings about the feeling of pride. What are they proud of?
In the minds of most Russians this war is not about Ukraine. It is a conflict with NATO and the USA. But it is not even about defeating or conquering USA.
"In this clash, America needs to feel and recognise that Russia is its equal. Equal in military strength, but, most importantly, equal in its status as a major world power"
Most Russian believe the end of this would return Russia to the status of Soviet Union - that is being on par with the US (Russians tend to forget about China when thinking about the future). In a sense, the way US is engaging in this war proves to Russians exactly that.
"Because it fears ‘us’ (Russia, Putin); hence, it respects us, sees us as equals". And this is the key that explains why Russian are optimistic - the worse the situation on the ground, the greater the desire to console oneself with success in fighting the US.
For majority of Russian it isn't even about military success as such - "but the very fact that Russia stepped up, threw down the gauntlet, and the gauntlet was picked up".
Russians are collectively experiencing a feeling of satisfaction that the world has been put into the order that they have long desired. In such a euphoric mood, no one thinks about the way the country or their family will survive, about their job or salary. People are happy and positive: everything will somehow work out since Russia is such a tough cookie that the whole world trembles before it. Putin had successfully tapped into mass consciousness and is heavily exploiting the desire for grandpowerness.
How long will this last? We don't yet know.
And here propaganda is key - it helps reinforce the feeling of "fear/respect" from the war and attacks every uncomfortable news about the costs of this war. Russians choose not to see the deaths and suffering in Ukraine - they choose to ignore their own dead that come back, justifying it to themselves that it is the price of preserving Russia a great power. Economic loss is not yet that heavy and overall discomfort so far is compensated with the "victories" over US and NATO.
The key here is that Russians expect for things to improve - which they won't. Not in 6 months, not in a year. And eventually reality will start to bite and inevitably trigger a reaction.
Mikey10
Pedro Mendes
A (partial) admission of what the world knows.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...e-in-skripal-poisoning?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...e-in-skripal-poisoning?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
glasgowspur
Andy Thompson
Damien thornesque
Mikey10
Pedro Mendes
No different to North Korea, is it?
Grays_1890
Barry Daines
Na both mental dictator clams
Robbo
Paul Walsh
"falling"
