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Politics, politics, politics

I do adore these figures, well find it funny, as the Brexit result was billed as being all about immigration. May structured her exit deal around controlling FoM, and here we are...less than a Wembley stadium crowd stay in the UK from the EU. I don't think it is solely because EU migrants feel less welcome in the UK, though that might factor, I think the bigger piece is that Poland etc are much stronger economies now. People get paid a lot more there then they did and the cost of living is less there so why come to the UK? European nations are issueing visas to people from Ukraine, Belarus etc now to try and access cheaper labour as a result of this. The reason Germany let in so many migrants was partly down to this need. They don't need Brexit to do it either.

The other funny thing is that those who are less chuffed with immigrants tend to dislike the non-english speaking hijab wearing types you see at the doctors who have to have a translator present etc. That's the 250,000 that we control now, these are not people coming from the EU.

Does Brexit do anything? Anything that it promised? Nope.

So we've gone from a 50/50 EU/RoW mix, to 25/75 in the 2 years since the brexit vote with all the associated horror stories and scaremongering, but you're suggesting that it has little or nothing to do with brexit itself? Seriously?

You do have a point in one sense, though. If the government simply intend, as these latest figures might imply, to allow RoW immigration to balloon to fill the gap left by declining EU arrivals thereby leaving headline figures little changed, this is likely to be seen by many leave voters as an indirect violation of what they voted for. This in turn could well lead to a further backlash down the line for example in the form of a resurgence of a UKIP-type force, irrespective of how actual brexit plays out.
 
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That's true. I will have to remember to apply for a visa waiver and probably plan ahead. Doubt I'll be able to book a next day Eurostar unless I have an already valid waiver.
This is also only due from 2020, so if we have a no deal Brexit (which wasn't far away from the "we voted out, we leave right now" hyperbole coming from some leavers), there is huge uncertainty about about what even the most basic travel will look like.

And, the pound is greatly devalued (which the savings highly unlikely to be passed on via reduced goods prices equivalent to/greater than pre referendum), so any Euro trips will cost more.

To deny there is significant change is to bury one's head in the sand.

You obviously do technically have a point, but I'd suggest in reality that 9 times out of 10, you will have a valid waiver. I'd have thought the type of person who is liable to hop on a eurostar at a moment's notice would usually be a fairly frequent traveller, likely to have travelled to the EU within the past 2-3 years, thereby having the necessary in place.

It will be slightly less convenient than present arrangements, yes. Emphasis on the word 'slightly'.
 
So we've gone from a 50/50 EU/RoW mix, to 25/75 in the 2 years since the brexit vote with all the associated horror stories and scaremongering, but you're suggesting that it has little or nothing to do with brexit itself? Seriously?

Yes you can't claim all the 'credit'. The UK was open to the new eastern countries when they joined the EU, and we had floods of people, while other countries in northern europe kept their borders shut. But now free movement is pan-EU and the 'new' nations are richer, there is a labour shortage. Just ask @scaramanga or numerous other sources for example: https://www.ft.com/content/c1626f0c-a6f2-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b

But you are putting words into my mouth, I said Brexit would also make people feel less welcome. They can get work in Germany, ust as easily. Why come to a country that's cutting itself off, and looking backwards? :p

You do have a point in one sense, though. If the government simply intend, as these latest figures might imply, to allow RoW immigration to balloon to fill the gap left by declining EU arrivals thereby leaving headline figures little changed, this is likely to be seen by many leave voters as an indirect violation of what they voted for. This in turn could well lead to a further backlash down the line for example in the form of a resurgence of a UKIP-type force, irrespective of how actual brexit plays out.

What did the 51.9% vote for? That is the $64m question. May thought it was controlling immigration. Parliment don't seem to think so - judging by how they recieved her deal. This uncertainty on what the Brexit vote meant is at the heart of the current impasse in the UK. There was no manifesto, so what kind of Brexit should it be? If we have a new vote we need to outline what the options are. We couldn't of known 2 years ago, there was so much detail to be filled in.

I think RoW immigration is actually the immigration that people dislike more. I could be wrong. But Europeans who can go home more easily, and are normally educated, English speaking seem more palatable, and a 'price' worth paying for free trade. Obviously this is pretty delicate ground. But to move through this we have to have frank discussions and understand peoples logic.
 
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I'm not putting words in your mouth at all. You said...

I think the bigger piece is that Poland etc are much stronger economies now. People get paid a lot more there then they did and the cost of living is less there so why come to the UK?

That still sounds to me as if you are suggesting that the primary reason for the shift is something completely unrelated to the brexit vote. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there is an element of truth in these points, but suggesting that they are suddenly responsible for dramatically altering the mix of UK immigration, at the precise same time as brexit, seems fanciful to me. But of course, it fits your narrative well :p
 
I'm not putting words in your mouth at all. You said...


That still sounds to me as if you are suggesting that the primary reason for the shift is something completely unrelated to the brexit vote. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there is an element of truth in these points, but suggesting that they are suddenly responsible for dramatically altering the mix of UK immigration, at the precise same time as brexit, seems fanciful to me. But of course, it fits your narrative well :p

If you're going to quote someone, it's churlish to cut their sentence in half, at least put ... at the front! :)

I don't think it is solely because EU migrants feel less welcome in the UK, though that might factor,
I think the bigger piece is that Poland etc are much stronger economies now. People get paid a lot more there then they did and the cost of living is less there so why come to the UK?

Look we won't know what drives people without some crazy immigrant questionnaire. But we do know that other EU nations that used to rely on EU migrant workers are struggeling this year. See the FT artlicle and many others outlining. We agree its not one thing that drives people, but multipule things. Richer eastern nations is certainally one of the factors, not feeling welcome here is another. Not feeling welcome here is not something I feel proud of, or the rise in racism post vote.

Why don't we cut RoW immigration, keep EU FoM, and free trade?? Net result similar or reduced migration into the UK, a stronger UK econmy with more revenue for public services. Makes perfect sense right?
 
Why don't we cut RoW immigration, keep EU FoM, and free trade?? Net result similar or reduced migration into the UK, a stronger UK econmy with more revenue for public services. Makes perfect sense right?

Brilliant idea. Tell doctors from India to stay at home so we can have more Lithuanian cleaners.

We already have very tough requirements for immigrants from the RoW, I'm not sure what you propose to further cut immigration from that group. I was being facetious about telling doctors to stay in their own country, but that wasn't actually far from the truth, as the government have had to relax some of the immigration rules around healthcare professionals due to not having enough here.
 
If you're going to quote someone, it's churlish to cut their sentence in half, at least put ... at the front! :)



Look we won't know what drives people without some crazy immigrant questionnaire. But we do know that other EU nations that used to rely on EU migrant workers are struggeling this year. See the FT artlicle and many others outlining. We agree its not one thing that drives people, but multipule things. Richer eastern nations is certainally one of the factors, not feeling welcome here is another. Not feeling welcome here is not something I feel proud of, or the rise in racism post vote.

Why don't we cut RoW immigration, keep EU FoM, and free trade?? Net result similar or reduced migration into the UK, a stronger UK econmy with more revenue for public services. Makes perfect sense right?

If you want we can continue splitting hairs and I could point out how by using the word 'primary', I acknowledged the existence of your other point by implication...but what a waste of time that would be!

Let's assume brexit gets cancelled tomorrow. Do you seriously believe that EU arrivals remain steady at 70-odd thousand? We probably broadly agree on the wider issue, and the government's handling of it. My point here is that you are trying to discredit the brexit vote by presenting figures that bear no relation to those that were current and indicative of the situation at the time of said vote. These figures are very likely to have been strongly influenced by the vote itself, and therefore would be inappropriate in terms of considering a reversion to the previous situation.

By all means debate the merits of the matter. But please stop trying to paint the 2016 situation with 2018 figures.
 
Brilliant idea. Tell doctors from India to stay at home so we can have more Lithuanian cleaners.

We already have very tough requirements for immigrants from the RoW, I'm not sure what you propose to further cut immigration from that group. I was being facetious about telling doctors to stay in their own country, but that wasn't actually far from the truth, as the government have had to relax some of the immigration rules around healthcare professionals due to not having enough here.

I would guess a small percentage of that 250,000 are doctors, nurses, skilled programmers etc But I have no idea. Apparently the country voted to control immigration. While I don't have a problem with immigratants I can understand those that do, becasue the UK is quite well populated. There aren't enough homes or transporatation in our smallish country. France has the same population with twice the land. But we need people, we need labour, so there will always be immigration. That's what the politicians aren't honest about. They play a game of pandering to the masses while ensuring the economy and NHS function. The point was, if you need immigration why not get the benifits of free trade in the EU? If you need extra doctors etc the Eu doesn't stop us getting them.

If Brexit is a way to 'solve' immigration, the people have been sold a pup.
 
If you want we can continue splitting hairs and I could point out how by using the word 'primary', I acknowledged the existence of your other point by implication...but what a waste of time that would be!

Let's assume brexit gets cancelled tomorrow. Do you seriously believe that EU arrivals remain steady at 70-odd thousand? We probably broadly agree on the wider issue, and the government's handling of it. My point here is that you are trying to discredit the brexit vote by presenting figures that bear no relation to those that were current and indicative of the situation at the time of said vote. These figures are very likely to have been strongly influenced by the vote itself, and therefore would be inappropriate in terms of considering a reversion to the previous situation.

By all means debate the merits of the matter. But please stop trying to paint the 2016 situation with 2018 figures.

Putting words into my mouth again, I didn't say the 2016 vote related to 2018 figures. We are where we are. That is the reality today. Things change, countries become richer and poorer. At least 4 things changed:

  1. We voted to leave the EU and some people who might have come here maybe went to Germany say.
  2. Our currency dropped 10-20% which means what you earn here converted back into Euros dropped by a similar amount
  3. Poland, Romania got richer, their own wages rose
  4. The immigration we saw when Germany and France were outside FoM and the UK was in, we won't see again imo.

There are no doubt more complexities. But one thing is certain, if you voted for Brexit to control immigration into the UK, I think Brexit may let you down.
 
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Putting words into my mouth again, I didn't say the 2016 vote related to 2018 figures. We are where we are. That is the reality today. Things change, countries become richer and poorer. At least 4 things changed:

  1. We voted to leave the EU and some people who might have come here maybe went to Germany say.
  2. Our currency dropped 10-20% which means what you earn here converted back into Euros dropped by a similar amount
  3. Poland, Romania got richer, their own wages rose
  4. The immigration we saw when Germany and France were outside FoM and the UK was in, we won't see again imo.

There are no doubt more complexities. But one thing is certain, if you voted for Brexit to control immigration into the UK, I think Brexit may let you down.

Let me try again...

Let's assume brexit gets cancelled tomorrow. Do you seriously believe that EU arrivals remain steady at 70-odd thousand?

Unless your answer to the above question is 'yes', I would suggest that you stop referencing the 70 thousand figure in support of your argument. Unless you believe it that it would remain steady in the event of a reversal of brexit (and by ignoring my question the first time around, I'm assuming for now that you don't actually believe that) you would seem to be acknowledging it to be artificially low.

Which was my original point.
 
Let me try again...



Unless your answer to the above question is 'yes', I would suggest that you stop referencing the 70 thousand figure in support of your argument. Unless you believe it that it would remain steady in the event of a reversal of brexit (and by ignoring my question the first time around, I'm assuming for now that you don't actually believe that) you would seem to be acknowledging it to be artificially low.

Which was my original point.

Yes. :cool:

It would fluctuate and depends on many factors like the value of the pound, but won't be as high as it was in the past, as previously outlined.
 
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If you read one thing on Brexit this weekend, make it this. It is long but he gets everything spot on. If only May hadn't made sacking him her first act as PM and had benefited from his experience


Managed to skim read it. Agree with amounts of what he says, especially the honesty of politicians. Rather than fear popularism, its politicians duty to outline what Brexit will entail. But the irony of his speach is he is doing some of the things he is criticising. He is letting his own political asperations and connections to the Tory party dictate how he calls things.

Amazingly, he is trying to find a way to do the wrong thing - Brexit - 'righter'. I also don't agree with him that the deal May came back with is a hatrick for the EU. No amount of planning and strategic brilliance would have delivered 'the deal', the perfect deal that we need. Ironically he explains why that is - if you're out you are out. You can't cherry pick.

So I found it a bit like flogging a dead horse - him explaining in a reasoned way why Brexit doesn't work - then seeming to say it should be done better. Contradict-Tory and a tad illogical. If it doesn't work, explain why, and don't do it!
 
Interesting article originally from the FT about Italy and the EU:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...ussels/ar-BBR0UZ7?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=mailsignout

Italy: pinning the blame on Brussels

Miles Johnson in Rome

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© Getty

Vincenzo D’Amore, a 34-year-old buffalo mozzarella maker from the small town of Carinola outside Naples, is exactly the type of young business owner who would be expected to celebrate Italy’s membership of the EU and a single market that allows him to sell his products across the continent.

Last year he converted the farm founded by his great-grandfather at the start of the last century into a modern cheese factory, using his 800 buffaloes and 36 hectares of land to make around 500kg of mozzarella a week. However, he says his project has been hurt by cheaper competition from lower cost producers elsewhere in Europe.

“With the prices of some types of mozzarella sold in the European supermarkets, you would not even be able to repay the cost of milk, how can such a product even be on the market?” he says. “I’ve always liked the idea of calling myself European, but now I feel abandoned. I’m losing faith in Europe”.

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© Getty Matteo Salvini has transformed the League into a major political force and shifted Italian attitudes to Europe

Mr D’Amore is part of a rising number of Italians who, after two decades of economic stagnation, no longer believe that being part of the EU has been good for their country. Research this year by the European Parliament found that 45 per cent of Italians believed that on balance their country had not benefited from its membership of the union, a higher level than even recession-ravaged Greece or a Britain that voted for Brexit.

This collapse in faith inside the fourth-largest economy in the EU has contributed to a surge in support for the anti-migrant and Eurosceptic League party led by the charismatic 45-year-old Matteo Salvini.

A native of Milan, Mr Salvini does not go so far as to call for Italy to leave the euro — let alone the EU. But his pledge to stand up to a European establishment that he argues has failed Italy has helped transform the stature of his party. Once considered little more than a fringe northern separatist party, since March’s election the League has become a national political force that polls indicate could make Mr Salvini prime minister if a poll was held in the near future.

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© Getty Thousands of people gather for a demonstration organized by Matteo Salvini protest against European Union officials. The collapse in Italian belief in the European project is in part a consequence of a stagnant economy in which the pain has been felt disproportionately by the young

The disillusionment of Italians with the EU marks a profound generational shift for a country that once viewed closer integration with Europe as a solution for many of its ills. In 2000, around 80 per cent of Italians said they welcomed the country’s entrance into the single currency, at a time when only half of Germans held the same opinion.

Since joining the single currency Italy’s average annual rate of economic growth per head has been zero, according to the Bruegel think-tank. This compares with a rate for Spain of 1 per cent, France at 0.8 per cent and Germany at 1.25 per cent. Now, with the broader European economy slowing down, Italy risks tipping into a technical recession by the end of this year after its economy contracted in the third quarter.

For Marcello Messori, director of the LUISS School of European Political Economy in Rome, the collapse in Italian belief in the European project is in part a consequence of a stagnant economy in which the pain has been felt disproportionately by the young.

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© Getty Deputy prime minister and minister for Interior affairs Matteo Salvini greets the crowd at a demonstration of the Lega party at Piazza del Popolo

In a country where a fifth of young people are unemployed, only 23 per cent of young Italians say they expect to achieve a better socio-economic status than their parent’s generation, the lowest level in the EU according to the research group Census.

“There is a clear difference between generations of Italians in their attitude to Europe,” says Mr Messori. “For my generation our idea of Europe was to be free, to have a wider world around Italy. This is changing”.

The recent dip in the economy has only increased anger toward the EU. At a rally earlier in December, in Rome’s Piazza del Popolo, in front of tens of thousands of supporters, many waving flags with his party’s “Italians first” slogan, Mr Salvini vowed to stand up to Brussels.

“We are afraid of nothing and nobody,” he told the cheering crowds. “Someone has betrayed the European dream, but we will put blood and strength back into the veins of a new European community.” He warned that further austerity imposed on Italy from Brussels would result in riots like those seen in recent weeks in France.

Mr Salvini’s willingness to stand up to Brussels is most tangible in the clash between Italy’s coalition government and the European Commission over its budget plans, which envisage a sharp increase in public spending. Rome initially estimated this would create a budget deficit of 2.4 per cent, breaking EU guidelines. A proposal that would shrink that figure to 2.04 per cent was not immediately accepted by Brussels when it was proposed last week.

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© Reuters Italy's Minister of Labor and Industry Luigi Di Maio, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, pose for photographers at the end of a news conference after a cabinet meeting at Chigi Palace in Rome, Italy

It leaves the European Commission needing to find a balance between being seen to hold Italy to account for what it has called an “unprecedented” breach of its budgetary rules while being careful not to provide Mr Salvini with more ammunition to attack Brussels. The coalition has said it will stick to its flagship spending policies.

The sense of injustice in Italy that different standards are being applied by Brussels to other capitals has been inflamed by President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of higher spending in France, to calm angry protesters, a move that will sharply increase the country’s budget deficit.

Rather than alarming Italian voters, Mr Salvini’s clash with Europe, which has seen him launch tirades against the “Brussels bunker” and forge alliances with other hard right politicians such as France’s Marine Le Pen, has served to boost his party’s popularity.

Mr Salvini has successfully transformed the one-time Northern League into a national party targeting support in the centre and south of the country in a way that would have been unimaginable five years ago. Ahead of European elections next May the League, which shares power with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, is now polling at above 30 per cent, a number that if achieved at the polls would make it the largest party in the country.

(end of part 1)
 
(Part 2)

A strong result in the European elections would see Mr Salvini solidify his party’s new-found status as the dominant force on Italy’s political right, a position which had been occupied by Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia for two decades. It would also raise the prospect, if Mr Salvini is emboldened enough to take Italy back to the polls, of an avowed Eurosceptic taking power in a large eurozone member for the first time in the single currency’s history.

Susanna Ceccardi, the 31-year-old League mayor of the small Tuscan town of Cascina near Pisa, is representative of a generation of young Italian politicians who have taken a more hostile stance towards Brussels as a means of protecting what she sees as “Italian values”. While an earlier generation of Italian rightwing politicians were likely to embrace openness with Europe, Ms Ceccardi, who was just 12 when the euro was launched in 1999, says she and her supporters feel little affinity with the modern EU.

“I feel European from the point of view of history, but I do not feel European from an administrative and management point of view, because it is a Europe that contradicts itself and its values,” she says. “Any citizen who hears the question of identity, does not want to suddenly see the historical centres full of Islamic veils, schools where you cannot eat pork . . . this is far from our culture. That is why people feel far from the EU, because it does not defend the values of the common European people, of our people.”


Ms Ceccardi argues that criticism of Brussels has allowed Mr Salvini to win a national audience. Yet antipathy towards Brussels is not exclusive to Italy’s hard right. Within the Five Star Movement, a party made up of eclectic ideological positions, some believe the euro has contributed to an economic status quo in Italy that has failed its youth.

Some of the party’s leading figures, including its 32-year-old leader Luigi Di Maio, are of the generation of Italians that have struggled with high youth unemployment and a perceived lack of opportunity. This cohort came of age at a time when freedom of movement allowed them to work across Europe, meaning that Italy’s membership provided both an escape from joblessness at home but also a reminder of the country’s economic failings.

Mr Di Maio, joint deputy prime minister in the coalition with Mr Salvini, is less vocally aggressive towards Brussels, but insists that his party’s election promises — including higher welfare payments to the poor — must be introduced whether Brussels likes it or not.

Growing up in Italy’s south where a fifth of the population is out of work, he saw many of his friends forced to leave to find employment abroad. “A lot of my friends went to London to New York, Berlin or Frankfurt to work,” he says. “There was a difference between those who were waiters in my area, like I was, and those who were waiters in London,” he says. “They could make a career while I could not”.

Mr Messori argues that the rise of Euroscepticism has been driven by the failure of the Italian economy to modernise over decades. The resulting economic stagnation has prompted politicians from both the left and right to attribute blame outside the country.

“In the 1960s small Italian firms were able to imitate innovation performed by other countries, as these were mostly to do with physical machinery. By the start of the 1990s global innovation became based on intangible assets and our small firms were unable to adapt,” he says. “This is not the fault of the euro or the EU but to different degrees centrist politicians started to blame Europe, and from this point the populist view had an open door.”

While many are dissatisfied by the country’s lack of economic growth, the increased hostility towards Brussels has not translated into a desire to leave the single currency — the extreme outcome most feared by financial markets.

While almost half of Italians do not believe that EU membership has benefited the country, 59 per cent support its membership of the single currency, according to Eurobarometer.

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© FT Click to enlarge

Mr Salvini and Mr Di Maio have switched from past statements raising questions about the euro to steadfastly committing to keeping the country in the currency union.

To convert disillusionment towards Europe into a major electoral breakthrough Mr Salvini will have to be careful that his hostile rhetoric towards Brussels does not lose him the support of small Northern businesses — his traditional power base. He has recently faced criticism from Italy’s business lobby for the uncertainty caused by the government’s budget plans.

Older Italians, meanwhile, remember what life was like before the country joined the single market in a way that perhaps does not always resonate with younger generations.

Antonio Nesti, a 74 year-old furniture maker in Cascina, says he remembers having to queue for hours at European borders to make deliveries before Italy was part of the single market. He, like other small exporters, says any disruption to this would cause huge damage to his business.

“I think that Italians who work, and want to continue working, do not like the politics the government is doing now with this tug of war with Europe,” Mr Nesti says.

Additional reporting by Davide Ghiglione in Rome



Matteo Salvini: Italy’s de facto PM sets political agenda
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© Getty ROME, ITALY - 2016/05/31: Matteo Salvini during the presentation of his book in Rome. Presentation of Matteo Salvini book 'Secondo MAtteo' and Daniela Santanchè 'Sono una donna, sono la santa.' The present leader of the' Lega Nord', Matteo Salvini. (Photo by Andrea Ronchini/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Matteo Salvini might be Italy’s interior minister and head of the coalition government’s junior partner but to many Italians the League leader, who dominates the domestic political agenda, is de facto prime minister.

One opinion poll conducted by La Repubblica newspaper in November found that 58 per cent of respondents believed that Mr Salvini was the true head of the coalition government, compared with just 16 per cent for the actual prime minister Giuseppe Conte.

Luigi Di Maio, whose Five Star Movement entered into the so-called “government of change” with Mr Salvini’s League with a far higher share of the vote, was seen as the real leader of the coalition by just 14 per cent of respondents.

Mr Salvini has combined a natural ability to suck up the political oxygen in Italy with a powerful social media operation that has gained him 3.3m followers on Facebook, 1m more than France’s Emmanuel Macron.

After coming under attack by charities and figures within the Catholic Church for his harsh stance against migration, he has used social media to cultivate a softer image to broaden his appeal. His daily posts will often switch between highlighting crimes committed by a migrant in Italy to a photo of the dessert or pasta he is eating, addressing followers as “friends”.

He recently appeared on a reality television programme where he took charge of a class of young school children. A beaming Mr Salvini explained his political ideas to the pupils, writing “sovranismo” in chalk letters on a blackboard and sharing his thoughts on the EU.

“Europe is a like a class with 27 students,” he told the children. “In this class you discuss things, like in Europe we discuss things, but then the way you do your homework, what subjects you focus on . . . is up to you”.
 
So, Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister, but not the government. Initial reaction by talking heads is that this is symbolic. However, convention might dictate that if she were to lose, she should resign.

This tweet is interesting:


It's interesting...i think this would be a worse move for Corbyn rather than the Labour party, being the Brexiter that he is...he'd now struggle even more to keep both sides of his support happy imo, we shall see i guess...
 
At least popularism in Italy has grounds - their economy has not been doing well - whereas we seemingly give up a very successful economy. Our economic woes on the other hand are just begining.
 
I guess it depends on whether one views that Italy's economy not doing well is because of being part of the EU and whether what success the UK economy has had is because of being part of the EU...
 
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