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Politics, politics, politics

As we are forcibly coerced into giving up large chunks of our money to the government, then yes - there's currently no way around that. I actually don't mind publicly funded healthcare, I just don't think the provision of it should be public.

The model that the US are moving to where most people have private insurance and the govt picks up the tab for those who can't seems much more sensible.

Having had first experience of that, I can tell you its is not.
Its better than the previous system that was about money and not medical care, but it is not a good system for any society that's wants to care about its people and that recognises that
a) accidents happen
b) people make mistakes
c) in a capitalist system it is not possible for everyone to be medium-high earners
d) in a capitalist society there is risk and risk results in financial hardship as well as gain
 
Tell me which countries you consider to be successful that have all of these and I'll tell you why they're pipe dreams.

I was thinking of France and Germany as successful countries with a good standard of living, comparable economies to ours (perhaps bigger in the case of Germany). But yes, Germany only has 2 of the 3 things iirc (their main rail provider is government owned and they have free tuition for uni students). I think the German energy companies are not government owned. In France, they have EDF as the the big energy provider, 80% government owned. SNCF is the government owned rail provider. I don't think they have free university tuition, but they have very low fees at their many public universities (a couple of hundred Euros per year irrc). These are developed, democratic nations and I would argue that they are, overall, less unequal societies than ours. Nobody's perfect of course.

If major nations like that can make those things work, then I think we can and I think society would benefit from it. If people disagree then fine, but I don't believe these to be 'away with the fairies' type of principles.
 
The Germans place a greater emphasis on work place training and apprenticeships which are not seen as something the thick kids do. The is a lot to admire about the German attitude to work. When I have time i will put up a link I found that was very interesting.
 
I was thinking of France and Germany as successful countries with a good standard of living, comparable economies to ours (perhaps bigger in the case of Germany). But yes, Germany only has 2 of the 3 things iirc (their main rail provider is government owned and they have free tuition for uni students). I think the German energy companies are not government owned. In France, they have EDF as the the big energy provider, 80% government owned. SNCF is the government owned rail provider. I don't think they have free university tuition, but they have very low fees at their many public universities (a couple of hundred Euros per year irrc). These are developed, democratic nations and I would argue that they are, overall, less unequal societies than ours. Nobody's perfect of course.

If major nations like that can make those things work, then I think we can and I think society would benefit from it. If people disagree then fine, but I don't believe these to be 'away with the fairies' type of principles.
In Germany around 30% of college students attend university. That's a system that's already considered to be bursting at the seams and where only the nation's very best can get onto the more desirable courses. Compare that with this nation's ridiculous idea that 50% of all students attend university and you'll see why that's not compatible. I could live with state funding of university education if we went back to the old system of it being only for the very brightest few but then we'd have to find jobs for all the fudgewits studying Sports Science.

In France they have a massive nuclear power program. As I mentioned before, I this is one area where we need the state and it's ability to invest large amounts over a longer term. This is where one of the problems with the public sector comes in though. Anyone with half a brain knows that we need a few nuclear power stations and quickly. Unfortunately, in the hands of the public sector (and its socialist employees) we'd end up with a load of expensive propellers that run on rainbow juice and unicorn tails.
 
In Germany around 30% of college students attend university. That's a system that's already considered to be bursting at the seams and where only the nation's very best can get onto the more desirable courses. Compare that with this nation's ridiculous idea that 50% of all students attend university and you'll see why that's not compatible. I could live with state funding of university education if we went back to the old system of it being only for the very brightest few but then we'd have to find jobs for all the fudgewits studying Sports Science.

In France they have a massive nuclear power program. As I mentioned before, I this is one area where we need the state and it's ability to invest large amounts over a longer term. This is where one of the problems with the public sector comes in though. Anyone with half a brain knows that we need a few nuclear power stations and quickly. Unfortunately, in the hands of the public sector (and its socialist employees) we'd end up with a load of expensive propellers that run on rainbow juice and unicorn tails.

Re. German percentage of university students -- I suspect that this is where the previous poster's point about work-based training comes in, technical education etc. If we had better programs for that here than the existing ones, we might see a lower percentage opting to go to university. Nonetheless, the Germans are showing that free university tuition can be done.

In France, I assume it was the 'public sector socialists' who decided to have a massive nuclear power program, so I don't think our experts on energy should be less pragmatic or more left-wing than their French counterparts. Also, I think trying to move us towards green energy, where possible, should be a priority and in view of climate change and energy security (north sea oil eventually going, middle-east general instability) is as much an issue of pragmatism as idealism. It's worth mentioning that the German government is to completely phase out nuclear power by 2022, with much increased investment in renewables. I think in the short term, it means they are using more coal, until they have invested enough in renewable energy. Currently, renewables provide 26% of their electricity and they are pushing that number higher and higher. For some perspective, they got 6.3% of their electricity from renewables in the year 2000. Their government's goal is to get 80% of their electricity from renewable energy by 2050.

Again though, these aren't pipe dreams, but reality in comparable nations. Nothing is perfect but there are different ways of doing things and, in those areas we've been discussing, I don't think Corbyn is being particularly outlandish or unrealistic.
 
As we are forcibly coerced into giving up large chunks of our money to the government, then yes - there's currently no way around that. I actually don't mind publicly funded healthcare, I just don't think the provision of it should be public.

The model that the US are moving to where most people have private insurance and the govt picks up the tab for those who can't seems much more sensible.


Yep, even Tories are socialists when they need to be. :rolleyes:
 
The problem is the way uni places have been sold by the politicians. Quotes like "if you go to uni you can earn £100,000 extra over your career" , "you are entitled to a uni education" and rubbish.
Some qualifications will give you extra earning power, not all. And you are entitled to nothing but the air you breathe.
If you want to study to become a doctor, teacher or any other skill the country is short of it should be funded by the government. But you should have to work for government in field at an agreed rate for 5 years. A sliding scale could be set, engineers for instance 90% paid but then work on government projects like HS2 at set rates.
Why should we pay for a useless qualification because misinformed youth thinks it will get them more money?
 
Re. German percentage of university students -- I suspect that this is where the previous poster's point about work-based training comes in, technical education etc. If we had better programs for that here than the existing ones, we might see a lower percentage opting to go to university. Nonetheless, the Germans are showing that free university tuition can be done.

It can be done to an extent, but the political climate there currently is that it can't cope as a free service. I agree that more technical and job-based solutions are required for those that are not academic types. I've made this point before, but when I used to employ people for our office staff I used to insist on graduate candidates only. That guaranteed that those who turned up were of a minimum level of ability/effort/intelligence and we could ignore all previous qualifications. Since around the turn of the century that's been an entirely pointless stipulation - we've had graduate candidates turn up who would surprise me if they tied their own shoelaces unassisted.

The system of grammar schools was a much better alternative. I know the age and method of seeding has its detractors and I'm not convinced I know the answer to that problem, but taking non-academic kids to a school where they learn the skills they will use in life and pushing the rest to be the best they can be makes far more sense than the current system of "deferred success" and everyone being equal regardless of ability.

In France, I assume it was the 'public sector socialists' who decided to have a massive nuclear power program, so I don't think our experts on energy should be less pragmatic or more left-wing than their French counterparts.
I wouldn't hold the French up as a successful economy but they do lead the world in Nuclear technology. I suspect it's something to do with the heavy science/maths leaning in their schools.

It's not the experts on energy I'm concerned about, it's the politicians all having a race towards Greenpeace to chase easy votes.

Also, I think trying to move us towards green energy, where possible, should be a priority and in view of climate change and energy security (north sea oil eventually going, middle-east general instability) is as much an issue of pragmatism as idealism.
If nuclear power didn't exist I'd agree. Realistically though, storage technology is so far off being viable that wind/solar power in this country is next to pointless. Shale gas will probably get us through the development cycle of nuclear plants but that's the way we need to head.

It's worth mentioning that the German government is to completely phase out nuclear power by 2022, with much increased investment in renewables. I think in the short term, it means they are using more coal, until they have invested enough in renewable energy. Currently, renewables provide 26% of their electricity and they are pushing that number higher and higher. For some perspective, they got 6.3% of their electricity from renewables in the year 2000. Their government's goal is to get 80% of their electricity from renewable energy by 2050.
I've just been reading up on this. I genuinely didn't realise how stupid people leading countries around the world are.

Yet again, it's the same misunderstanding of statistics that leads people to be scared of flying but happy to drive causing really bad decisions. I didn't realise how far the contagion of stupidity had spread.

An unpredictable source like wind or solar will not and cannot make up such a large proportion of the power generated without better storage technology (technology that is currently far, far more dangerous and expensive than nuclear). Those wind farms and solar panels that Germany are building will, at times, produce a combined energy output of 0GWh. Which means that the entire energy requirements of Germany will need to be fulfilled by another form of energy. This means that there still needs to be either coal or gas power stations running in the background (because shutting down and starting up are prohibitively expensive), chucking all that lovely CO2 into the air.

If they have the right terrain, space and money they may have pumped some water up a mountain which will provide a trickle but that seems to be fairly unrealistic as a main power source. Roughly that means to produce 1GW you'd need to release 3.6 million cubic metres of water down a 100m drop every hour. That obviously assumes no losses which is impossible.

Can they achieve a target of 80% produced by renewables? Possibly - sounds like an outside estimate but not too unreasonable. Does this mean that their CO2 output drops to 20% of a 100% fossil fuel output? Not even close. They're also buying in a lot of biomass it seems. That's concerning for a country that seems to be nothing but forest when you fly in and out. Their CO2 output ramped up heavily when they started this program and saw a slight drop last year (although that was more consumption-based than production-based).

Obviously I'm not saying that this technology won't improve, but the time scales of a realistic (ignoring what people say to win votes), 100% renewable, energy system with no need for a fossil fuel backup are long. And all of this because people don't properly understand risk.

Again though, these aren't pipe dreams, but reality in comparable nations. Nothing is perfect but there are different ways of doing things and, in those areas we've been discussing, I don't think Corbyn is being particularly outlandish or unrealistic.
Unless they're properly costed and realistic then they're pipe dreams. At the moment he's a small step from the likes of Russell Brand - telling the world what they want without the slightest inkling of how they'd actually get it.
 
Living wage is a terrible idea though from my calculations. It's only a brief forecast but it looks like our company will be losing 15 UK staff - and we're a fairly small company.

Is it not subsidised by lower corporation tax? How low are your profits?

Profits are pretty good but margins in our industry are tiny.

We've not borrowed to invest in plant and cut staff because of the uncertain economic outlook. This makes it pretty certain that we will.

Corporation tax also drops for our competitors. Those that are more automated than us will not see a corresponding rise in labour costs. Raising the cost of employing the most basic of staff will only ever increase the drive for automation. That's not a problem on the macro economic level as long as the government does its job and raises educational standards so that people transition from manual to technical roles. That's not happening though.

So, we finally sat and crunched the numbers in a board meeting yesterday.

Looks like I overestimated slightly in my initial calculations but I wasn't far off. The initial hike in minimum wage means we'll have to get rid of 5 (of around 50) at one site and 8 (of around 50) at the other - that's significant for us. I don't think we've ever laid off that many staff, even in bad times. The only choice we've been left with is to automate some more of the process. We didn't really want to put that much capital into the business right now but the government has forced our hands. We'll probably shift more of our work out to our overseas plant where labour costs are more reasonable.

Does anyone else work for a company that pays at or slightly above minimum wage? I'd be interested to hear how it's affecting your forecasts.
 
So, we finally sat and crunched the numbers in a board meeting yesterday.

Looks like I overestimated slightly in my initial calculations but I wasn't far off. The initial hike in minimum wage means we'll have to get rid of 5 (of around 50) at one site and 8 (of around 50) at the other - that's significant for us. I don't think we've ever laid off that many staff, even in bad times. The only choice we've been left with is to automate some more of the process. We didn't really want to put that much capital into the business right now but the government has forced our hands. We'll probably shift more of our work out to our overseas plant where labour costs are more reasonable.

Does anyone else work for a company that pays at or slightly above minimum wage? I'd be interested to hear how it's affecting your forecasts.

Wow, Interesting stuff. Out of interest (and I am not up on politics) but I wonder if these government groups go through many real-life case studies and speak to various companies to get there thoughts. Is there anything where they are required to show their research/benefits/data etc. or can they just say that they have 'crunched the numbers' and this will be a great idea?
 
Wow, Interesting stuff. Out of interest (and I am not up on politics) but I wonder if these government groups go through many real-life case studies and speak to various companies to get there thoughts. Is there anything where they are required to show their research/benefits/data etc. or can they just say that they have 'crunched the numbers' and this will be a great idea?
My limited understanding is that they calculate the overall increased cost of employment as x and the decreased cost of corporation tax as y and if the two are roughly equal then you're good to go.

There is obviously some consultation with economists but clearly this is not a decision that was considered or calculated. This move was purely to pull the rug from under Boris's growing campaign for the leadership. The "living wage" was his big seller amongst voters and now Osborne has claimed it first.
 
My limited understanding is that they calculate the overall increased cost of employment as x and the decreased cost of corporation tax as y and if the two are roughly equal then you're good to go.

There is obviously some consultation with economists but clearly this is not a decision that was considered or calculated. This move was purely to pull the rug from under Boris's growing campaign for the leadership. The "living wage" was his big seller amongst voters and now Osborne has claimed it first.


Why has that economic super power, the USA had such high levels of unemployment, when they have such low wage levels? Over there, people have to have multiple jobs, just to survive and rely on begging(tips.) However, during the GFC, unemployment exploded. So just save the 'minimum wage leads to unemployment' crap alone. It's a furphy. Low wages are all about higher profits. Here's a question Scara, what are the relative levels of profit to wages as a ratio to GDP? I'll bet profits are up in the mix and wages are down. workers are being ripped off right, left and centre. All scared by the con that wage growth leads to unemployment. In fact, wage growth can lead to expanded domestic demand, increased supply and therefore employment and profit growth. Low wages mean low demand.
 
Why has that economic super power, the USA had such high levels of unemployment, when they have such low wage levels? Over there, people have to have multiple jobs, just to survive and rely on begging(tips.) However, during the GFC, unemployment exploded. So just save the 'minimum wage leads to unemployment' crap alone. It's a furphy. Low wages are all about higher profits. Here's a question Scara, what are the relative levels of profit to wages as a ratio to GDP? I'll bet profits are up in the mix and wages are down. workers are being ripped off right, left and centre. All scared by the con that wage growth leads to unemployment. In fact, wage growth can lead to expanded domestic demand, increased supply and therefore employment and profit growth. Low wages mean low demand.
Yet I've literally stepped out of a meeting less than a day ago that proves for this company, in this country a higher minimum wage is absolutely going to lead to lower employment. You can, as our government do, talk as much as you want about overall profit levels vs GDP, etc. but in the real world people are losing jobs.

In most cases it's more of a disincentive for employing new staff than it is an incentive for making them redundant. After all, in the short term most wage costs can be considered fixed due to redundancy payments, cost of reorganisation, etc. So in the longer term it will reduce employment as a percentage of the workforce even if it doesn't increase the absolute number of unemployed.
 
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Higher wages also lead to higher prices. It's a balancing act. Unfortunately every time the scales start to move one way an unforseen event tips them the other.
 
Increased wages lead to increased domestic demand. That is a fact! Low wages lead to stagnation in demand and lower rates of supply.
Increased wages lead to some increased domestic demand. But far less than all of the increase gets spent in the UK.

I don't know about you, but my car was made in Germany, most of my clothes are made in Italy or France, my mortgage is with the UK arm of an overseas bank, my electrical goods are from somewhere in the far east, etc.

The thing about higher wages (enforced rather than by demand) is that they increase inflation, therefore increasing the cost of those goods bought with the extra wages and putting us all back where we started (except that now everything is more expensive for everyone and the rest of us didn't get a pay rise). Although we're not quite back where we started because much of that increased spend went overseas where there wasn't inflation because there wasn't minimum wage increase.

So now those on minimum wage are very slightly worse off than when we started and everyone who didn't get a pay rise is much worse off. Those businesses that didn't shift their production and/or profits overseas are now discouraged from expanding via staff increases due to the prohibitive cost and are far more likely to automate instead.

If you want to increase wages the only sensible way is to improve the education system. By doing that you advance the country's skills forward to the next technological stage and can keep ahead of the curve. Paying people who are only capable of the most simple tasks twice as much to do the same simple tasks does nothing to improve our economy.
 
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I've just been reading up on this. I genuinely didn't realise how stupid people leading countries around the world are.

Yet again, it's the same misunderstanding of statistics that leads people to be scared of flying but happy to drive causing really bad decisions. I didn't realise how far the contagion of stupidity had spread.

An unpredictable source like wind or solar will not and cannot make up such a large proportion of the power generated without better storage technology (technology that is currently far, far more dangerous and expensive than nuclear). Those wind farms and solar panels that Germany are building will, at times, produce a combined energy output of 0GWh. Which means that the entire energy requirements of Germany will need to be fulfilled by another form of energy. This means that there still needs to be either coal or gas power stations running in the background (because shutting down and starting up are prohibitively expensive), chucking all that lovely CO2 into the air.

If they have the right terrain, space and money they may have pumped some water up a mountain which will provide a trickle but that seems to be fairly unrealistic as a main power source. Roughly that means to produce 1GW you'd need to release 3.6 million cubic metres of water down a 100m drop every hour. That obviously assumes no losses which is impossible.

Can they achieve a target of 80% produced by renewables? Possibly - sounds like an outside estimate but not too unreasonable. Does this mean that their CO2 output drops to 20% of a 100% fossil fuel output? Not even close. They're also buying in a lot of biomass it seems. That's concerning for a country that seems to be nothing but forest when you fly in and out. Their CO2 output ramped up heavily when they started this program and saw a slight drop last year (although that was more consumption-based than production-based).

Obviously I'm not saying that this technology won't improve, but the time scales of a realistic (ignoring what people say to win votes), 100% renewable, energy system with no need for a fossil fuel backup are long. And all of this because people don't properly understand risk.

I think this was an interesting point. Also, the Germans say that via being more energy efficient, they project a 25% drop in electricity demand by 2050. So more renewables, improved storage technology and less power required overall. Whether they can achieve it or not (a nation built on renewable energy), we don't know. But I think it's a very noble goal to work towards. And I think to try and achieve such goals takes leadership and a genuine desire to improve the country. I don't see this in either front bench at the moment, but I do see this with Jeremy Corbyn. I hope that he can win the leadership and at least make the Tories (and the Blairites) think about the long term good of society.
 
I think this was an interesting point. Also, the Germans say that via being more energy efficient, they project a 25% drop in electricity demand by 2050. So more renewables, improved storage technology and less power required overall. Whether they can achieve it or not (a nation built on renewable energy), we don't know. But I think it's a very noble goal to work towards. And I think to try and achieve such goals takes leadership and a genuine desire to improve the country. I don't see this in either front bench at the moment, but I do see this with Jeremy Corbyn. I hope that he can win the leadership and at least make the Tories (and the Blairites) think about the long term good of society.
The reduction in demand is impressive and fully deserves recognition. The fact remains though, that if they are relying on wind and solar then that output has to be matched by a traditional power station able to take up the full slack if required.

It's a clever PR job - "80% of our power is from renewables". The coal/gas stations are still running, they're still kicking out CO2, they're just not being used to generate power.

As for Corbyn, I fully expect him to be the next Labour leader. I also expect Labour to lose even more seats at the next election, despite Osborne being poor PM material. That's if his own party don't commit fratricide before he can fudge them in front of the electorate.
 
Finding a way to store electricity is the scientific holy grail and would extremely profitable, but if an understatement. Yet no one seems even close to being able to do on a mass scale. So what happens in winter when it minus 5, snowing and no or little wind? We all freeze and politicians come up with more bull****.
Being green is a con of epic proportions.
 
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