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The failure of the negotiations so far
It is widely accepted that the UK is now in a weak position in the Brexit negotiations. The Chequers proposals are deservedly unpopular with the UK electorate and have at least
formally been rejected by our EU friends. If we are to make a success of the talks, we must first understand how we have arrived at this position.
It was clear from the very beginning of Theresa May’s government that the UK was in the grip of a fatal uncertainty about whether or not to leave the customs union.
Ministers and officials were still very much influenced by the logic of Project Fear – which in many cases they had themselves promulgated in the course of the Referendum campaign. They had claimed that there would be huge disruption – and they found it difficult once in office to jettison those claims.
The result was that from the very beginning the British government exuded a conspicuous infirmity of purpose – a reluctance to take any kind of action to deliver the single most important requirement of Brexit.
This basic nervousness was soon detected by our partners, both in Brussels and most importantly in Dublin.
They realised that some of the most important voices in the UK government – notably the Treasury –
retained their pre-referendum antipathy to a real Brexit. In particular they saw that the UK did not have the political will to devise and push hard for the technical solutions to deliver an unobtrusive soft customs border in Northern Ireland. Instead the EU negotiators realised that they had a path to eventual victory in the negotiations.
They offered a different solution: that regulations in Northern Ireland should remain the same as in Ireland, so that there was no need for checks of any kind. This of course evoked the spectre of a border in the Irish Sea, and a threat therefore to the Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. They knew that this would be unacceptable to any British Government, and that London would then instead have to push for the whole UK to remain in the customs union and large parts of the EU’s regulatory apparatus.
That is exactly what has happened. Such is the intellectual route by which we have stumbled and collapsed first into the Dec 8
Northern Irish backstop, and now into the Chequers proposals.
It was a further symptom of the utter lack of conviction with which the UK embarked on these talks that we so meekly accepted the sequencing proposed by the EU. This means that we have effectively agreed to pay £40 billion as an exit fee without any assurances as to the future relationship.
Then there was the election. It certainly did not help that the Government weakened itself greatly not just at home but in the eyes of our partners by this serious strategic mistake, that cost the Conservatives a majority.
But the single greatest failing has been the Government’s appalling and inexplicable delay in setting out a vision for what Brexit is. As Britain has run out of time, the initiative has been transferred to our counterparts on the other side of the table, and – disgracefully – no proper preparations have been made for leaving on WTO terms.
The net result of two years’ negotiation has been to guarantee EU citizens’ rights – which could and should have been done on day one unilaterally; to pay over £40bn for nothing in return; and to negotiate a transition period by which the UK would effectively remain in the EU for another two years and under the most humiliating terms, with no say on laws or taxes this country would have to obey. And if for some reason the negotiations on the future trade agreement break down altogether we have additionally agreed to remain in the customs union indefinitely, for the sake of the Irish border – so making Brexit meaningless.
That is a pretty invertebrate performance. There has been a collective failure of government, and a collapse of will by the British establishment, to deliver on the mandate of the people.
It is true that the EU has conducted the negotiations as though dealing with an adversary rather than a friendly country that simply wants to govern itself. But it is the UK’s supine posture that has enabled the EU to get away with it.
It is this failure either to see or to defend our own national interest that has led to the Chequers proposals and the current crisis.