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Politics, politics, politics

ShipOfGoldblum said:
No, there's always data up front. Every forecasting model I've ever seen starts with current and historic data (normally incomplete), extrapolates to build an idealised set, and forecasts according to some assumptions which are either derived from the data, or imported from some other data set which provides the proxy.
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Models can't account for context or agency though
 
Gutter Boy said:
Models can't account for context or agency though
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The menu is never the meal, and the map is never the territory. Models are a tool, not the thing itself. And lots of contexts can be quantified.

"Agency" as an abstract noun troubles me. It's used a lot by people who have moved into consulting roles from mid-tier local government jobs. I don't really know what they mean by it.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
No, there's always data up front. Every forecasting model I've ever seen starts with current and historic data (normally incomplete), extrapolates to build an idealised set, and forecasts according to some assumptions which are either derived from the data, or imported from some other data set which provides the proxy.

Having said that, every forecasting model I've ever seen has also needed to be congruent with some other requirement: previous work (so your team doesn't look silly & inconsistent), other predictions (herding happens everywhere), customer requirements (you get whatever model you pay for, or whichever model provides the most comfort to the most stakeholders).

And it's the assumptions that one has to play with to get that congruence; no-one likes falsifying data. In extremis, we declare an unhelpful data point an "outlier" before disposing of it.
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Im not saying it doesnt have merit, Im saying its not absolute. And, as stated, there will always be a lot of divergence in results based on assumptions and methods used.

And, as also stated, something like brexit is unprecedented. What data do we have to support it? And of course many more assumptions required to try and factor in the different elements.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Im not saying it doesnt have merit, Im saying its not absolute. And, as stated, there will always be a lot of divergence in results based on assumptions and methods used.

And, as also stated, something like brexit is unprecedented. What data do we have to support it? And of course many more assumptions required to try and factor in the different elements.
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There's loads of historic trade data, for lots of permutations of trading partners, and for lots of types of change in trading relationships. That would be a good start.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
The menu is never the meal, and the map is never the territory. Models are a tool, not the thing itself. And lots of contexts can be quantified.

"Agency" as an abstract noun troubles me. It's used a lot by people who have moved into consulting roles from mid-tier local government jobs. I don't really know what they mean by it.
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A model shows the cumulative rise of the dinosaur. Context is the big asteroid a few weeks away

Agency is people being human, not robots. Erring. Rebelling. Following their evolutionary psychology over ration.
 
r-u-s-x said:
Climate change models?
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My initial point was that science models are generally ok; it's economic and political models that are a bit horoscopey.

But even still. Context and agency - the Attenborough-inspired plastic crusade or Trump pulling out of the Paris Accord. Both of them spoil all modelling up to that point.

Agency vs structure is one of the world's great philosophical debates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure_and_agency
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
There's loads of historic trade data, for lots of permutations of trading partners, and for lots of types of change in trading relationships. That would be a good start.
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I'd rather incorporate the people angle too and look at comparable historical examples. Austria leaving the German Confederation in 1866, America or India leaving the British Empire in 1783/1947 and Greenland leaving the EU in 1985 etc.
 
That's probably not the best link. The fundamental is how much can humans control their own destiny vs being cogs in predestined wheels. Would the Third Reich have happened without Hitler - was it his specific set of actions and personality, or was the rise of fascism inevitable and would have happen under a different leader. That kind of stuff.
 
Gutter Boy said:
That's probably not the best link. The fundamental is how much can humans control their own destiny vs being cogs in predestined wheels. Would the Third Reich have happened without Hitler - was it his specific set of actions and personality, or was the rise of fascism inevitable and would have happen under a different leader. That kind of stuff.
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Predestination versus free will is one of the oldest philosophical debates, although one of the least interesting. Scotching the issue is light relief after dealing with mind/body dualists, and similar arguments apply.

The "great man" versus "underlying social forces" debate between historians is quite fun, although there can't be that many serious "great man" theorists these days. It's history of history, rather than philosophy of history.

I don't see how you can conflate them with each other, though, or with the sociological context you posed earlier. And I still have trouble relating any of this to forecasting and to models.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Of course its guesswork. Doesnt matter how fancy your model is, its always based on guess/assumption up front.
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That only applies if you presenting an argument as fact. Very different to a forecast. Using your theory, things can only be understood retrospectively and nothing else can be assessed.
Which would lead to quite an exciting, and tumultuous, life - but isn't realistic.
 
monkeybarry said:
That only applies if you presenting an argument as fact. Very different to a forecast. Using your theory, things can only be understood retrospectively and nothing else can be assessed.
Which would lead to quite an exciting, and tumultuous, life - but isn't realistic.
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If you pay attention to this thread you will find many presenting these forecasts as fact.

At least you understood my intent!
 
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