Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

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[Glenda's Legs]

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Ministers draw up not-so-secret-after-all plans....

 

[DTA]

The only reason we've not signed a Canada deal months ago was because Ireland kicked up a fuss about Northern Ireland. The bind there has basically screwed over the whole of Brexit. That's why we won't be able to have full Brexit until the nationalist voting age majority comes about in a few years' time.

The Irish Border issue is a reality. You Brexitiers don't like dealing with realities.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

What a complete c u nt

"Lied" or "Didnt know"?

Honestly Id believe either with him. The mans an ignorant buffoon, I wouldnt be surprised if he just didnt know.

And, of course, he is also a caniving clam, so I wouldnt be surprised if he knew.

I often think the whole court jester routine is there to allow him his ways, rather than a genuine trait.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The Irish Border issue is a reality. You Brexitiers don't like dealing with realities.

I dont see that he denies the reality of the issue. Of course he has convinced himself it wont be an issue for long, but that doesnt mean anyone agrees.

"You Brexiteers" - is that really necessary?

 

[Gutter Boy]

The Irish Border issue is a reality. You Brexitiers don't like dealing with realities.

I think the biggest reality to come from it is how little the population of England and Wales care about/relate to Northern Ireland. Gibraltar's situation actually seems to resonate more. The population have completely lost the imperialist attitudes to Ireland that lingered through the 70s and 80s

 

[Gutter Boy]

I dont see that he denies the reality of the issue. Of course he has convinced himself it wont be an issue for long, but that doesnt mean anyone agrees.

"You Brexiteers" - is that really necessary?

Even if the final border poll doesn't come for a while, Sinn Fein are only 1 seat away from being the biggest party in government. That and different arithmetic at Westminster after the next general election (Corbyn and McDonnell are long champions of a united Ireland) mean an Irish Sea customs border will be able to happen quickly

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Even if the final border poll doesn't come for a while, Sinn Fein are only 1 seat away from being the biggest party in government. That and different arithmetic at Westminster after the next general election (Corbyn and McDonnell are long champions of a united Ireland) mean an Irish Sea customs border will be able to happen quickly

I dont pretend to know the ins and outs of Irish politics and feeling, but the sea border makes the most obvious sense to me.

It is a natural border, it has the customs checks in place, it wouldnt take much to just enforce things there.

So this is once again Mays determination to cling on fudging the whole thing because she had to get in bed with the DUP?

 

[scaramanga]

Under WTO we would have to apply most favored nation rules, or have no negotiating position with any nation we want to trade with on our terms. There are logical reasons that not one developed nation has 0 import tariffs. If we did have 0 tariffs for everyone - and we won't its pie in the sky - we would cease to produce our own food. We'd import all food and be wholly reliant on others to feed ourselves.

That's simply not true and I'm not sure where you've got such information. MFN only applies to countries with which we do not have a trade agreement (or RTA in WTO terms). It's all on the WTO website if you want to read about it.

Step through what you've claimed and see if you can see the logical problem. Both Canada and the EU trade with much of the world on WTO terms. Both are members of the WTO and both have agreed to the principles and procedures which that membership requires. Yet they have both come to a trade agreement to trade at lower than MFN terms and neither have to trade with the rest of the world on those terms.

That's because the EU and Canada have a trade agreement (RTA) to do so.

So your assertion sounds good, but in reality, businesses would not save on imports. It's just made up nonsense that doesn't deal with reality.

See the above - the world is trending towards zero tariffs, the EU is remaining in a protectionist bubble.

More or less every CEO of these banks has outlined how they will move into the EU. Is CEO high enough up for you?

I've spoken, personally, to people with enough control in their banks (admittedly not CEOs) to know the short, medium and long term planning inside-out. Not a single one of them is planning on moving more than a small number of jobs into the EU to brass plate their EU business.

What they say publicly is attempting to avoid that cost, but there is no way any of them will be moving from London - as much as anything because those who make the decisions don't want to.

Why would the EU let the UK make all the money, and not have the trade conducted in house?

Because it has to. The EU attempted to pass a law that ensured all Euro transactions were completed within the Eurozone and the ECJ struck it down.

Switzerland was the banking capital before the EU,

Can I have some sauce with that please?

why did all the banks move to London previously with EU regulations and our taxes? Access to the EU market. It is simple and you are in denial.

London's rise started well before the close integration of the EU. London was the world's financial capital before New York was and it swung back to London with the Big Bang and low regulation (something the EU has been continually trying to restrict).

London is also perfectly placed in terms of time zones, overlapping with all the major financial centres. Our legal system creates a very predictable and certain outcome for anyone who requires it, and Europe doesn't even come close to us in terms of protecting the rights of shareholders and creditors (from the World Bank here: http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings). There's no comparison in terms of education either - not if you're looking at top level economics (http://www.shanghairanking.com/SubjectEcoBus2015.html). Europe also only has one Masters of Finance program to our four.

Mainly though, those making those decisions want to be somewhere everyone speaks English. They want their kids to stay in English schools and they don't want to have to commute halfway across Europe. They want to be able to walk across the street to have lunch with the head of their insurers or their audit partner and they want to live in the city they know and have arranged their lives around. London's place as a centre of finance didn't start with the EU, it started with British Empire and has been building on it for centuries. There's an infrastructure and an inertia that something as short-lived as the EU simply cannot budge in its short lifetime.

Companies who are not investing because the access to the EU market is under threat. If that was not a concern to these companies, they would invest now, why wait? If we are not free to trade with this market, they will invest in other nations. Land Rover have done n Slovakia already. That's jobs, and Exchequer revenue lost to the EU from the UK. It's already happened.

Nobody invests on uncertainty - that's just not how business works. Look at how investment stopped before the referendum, picked up again after and has now slowed as the deadline draws near.

I'm not surprised that manufacturers are moving to lower wage countries - that's how manufacturing works. Unless you have a unique product with no competition you continually engineer out costs. My business has an overseas arm where labour is cheaper - I'd expect that of most companies. If we want that kind of work (and I'm not convinced we do) then we need to set our stall out as a low wage, low regulation country.

Shouldn't you have posted this under Gutterboy? It's conspiratorial nonsense. Why would US based economics think tanks have an agenda against Brexit, what is in for them? Or the IMF for the that matter? You don't respect things like astrology or nonsense proclamations by spoofs, so why would you side with Trump, Farage, Boris over the CBI, and every economist worth their salt who has taken care to scientifically model Brexit scenarios?

It points to following a ideology over being rational, of being dogmatic rather than balanced.

Just because you don't comprehend an opinion doesn't make it nonsense. If economics was as simple as listening to what someone else tells you and agreeing with them why are we even having this discussion? Why didn't you just agree with me ages ago and save yourself the bother?

 

[the dza]

"Lied" or "Didnt know"?

Honestly Id believe either with him. The mans an ignorant buffoon, I wouldnt be surprised if he just didnt know.

And, of course, he is also a caniving clam, so I wouldnt be surprised if he knew.

I often think the whole court jester routine is there to allow him his ways, rather than a genuine trait.

Ignorance and lies, he's a very British Trump. Believes in nothing but self-aggrandisement.

 

[DTA]

I dont see that he denies the reality of the issue. Of course he has convinced himself it wont be an issue for long, but that doesnt mean anyone agrees.

"You Brexiteers" - is that really necessary?

Yeah your right. I'm just upset that the country that I live in and love (especially London) is being made a laughing stock through this Brexit Shambles.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I dont pretend to know the ins and outs of Irish politics and feeling, but the sea border makes the most obvious sense to me.

It is a natural border, it has the customs checks in place, it wouldnt take much to just enforce things there.

So this is once again Mays determination to cling on fudging the whole thing because she had to get in bed with the DUP?

The other thing that needs to happen is Ireland start wooing the unionists and set out a vision of a dual-faith country. They have basically always been hesitant because of the financial burden of incorporating such a poor region.

Interestingly the father of Irish Nationalism - Wolfe Tone - was protestant. More separation of religion from associations with either Eire or Britain would be really positive.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Ignorance and lies, he's a very British Trump. Believes in nothing but self-aggrandisement.

I was thinking "Trump-lite" but truthfully he could be just as dangerous. Vile man, I hope he disappears but suspect he'll be angling for leadership soon enough.

Yeah your right. I'm just upset that the country that I live in and love (especially London) is being made a laughing stock through this Brexit Shambles.

I understand you are upset, I just dont understand the need for petty divisions.

Its like the whole labour/tory thing on here, people already have their backs up on an "us and them" front before even reading a post.

 

[DTA]

Even if the final border poll doesn't come for a while, Sinn Fein are only 1 seat away from being the biggest party in government. That and different arithmetic at Westminster after the next general election (Corbyn and McDonnell are long champions of a united Ireland) mean an Irish Sea customs border will be able to happen quickly

You have brought this up constantly... And I haven't really challenged you because I wasnt sure if you are serious.

But what you are saying is that when the Catholics in NI become the narrow majority. Then there will be a united Ireland! And what would the DUPs buddies in the Orange order have to say about that?

 

[Gutter Boy]

You have brought this up constantly... And I haven't really challenged you because I wasnt sure if you are serious.

But what you are saying is that when the Catholics in NI become the narrow majority. Then there will be a united Ireland! And what would the DUPs buddies in the Orange order have to say about that?

The Catholics are already the majority. But they don't become the voting age majority until about 2022 or 2023.

The Good Friday Agreement says that when that comes to pass, there can be something called a border poll, when everyone votes if they want to be part of Ireland or Britain. If Ireland gets 50% + 1 vote, then NI becomes Irish. The Orange Order nutjobs will just have to lump it, the same as the IRA nutjobs have done for the last 100 years.

But we're really in the endgame now

 

[DTA]

The Catholics are already the majority. But they don't become the voting age majority until about 2022 or 2023.

The Good Friday Agreement says that when that comes to pass, there can be something called a border poll, when everyone votes if they want to be part of Ireland or Britain. If Ireland gets 50% + 1 vote, then NI becomes Irish. The Orange Order nutjobs will just have to lump it, the same as the IRA nutjobs have done for the last 100 years.

But we're really in the endgame now

Oh ok... They have to lump it. Ok yeah completely can't see any problems arising there. Nothing to see here..... Oh look a unicorn

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The Catholics are already the majority. But they don't become the voting age majority until about 2022 or 2023.

The Good Friday Agreement says that when that comes to pass, there can be something called a border poll, when everyone votes if they want to be part of Ireland or Britain. If Ireland gets 50% + 1 vote, then NI becomes Irish. The Orange Order nutjobs will just have to lump it, the same as the IRA nutjobs have done for the last 100 years.

But we're really in the endgame now

And RoI are just happy to reintegrate them?

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The agreement reached was that Northern Ireland was part of the United Kingdom, and would remain so until a majority of the people both of Northern Ireland and of the Republic of Ireland wished otherwise. Should that happen, then the British and Irish governments are under "a binding obligation" to implement that choice.

I guess so! (Assuming they would vote for it)

 

[Rorschach]

The only reason we've not signed a Canada deal months ago was because Ireland kicked up a fuss about Northern Ireland. The bind there has basically screwed over the whole of Brexit. That's why we won't be able to have full Brexit until the nationalist voting age majority comes about in a few years' time.

Of course, Ireland kicked up a fuss. This is not a footnote to the process but a core issue.
The complications of uniting Ireland, which I agree will happen at some point, are a puzzle to be solved over many years I would suggest. It is not a switch to be flicked with a nationalist majority

 

[Gutter Boy]

Oh ok... They have to lump it. Ok yeah completely can't see any problems arising there. Nothing to see here..... Oh look a unicorn

It's called national self determination. It's a principle that should apply all around the world (but is denied in places like Catalonia).

People are already gearing up for it

Mary Lou McDonald: "unionists have to be at home in a new Ireland and nothing, from the flag to the anthem would be 'taboo'".

Arlene Foster has said she'll move to Scotland when it happens, though Christopher Stalford from the DUP replied to her saying "for my part though, I would never leave this island. We need to show that you can be British and Irish at the same time."