Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

I'll stop spamming the thread after this post.

This article by the Institute for Government on negotiating a trade deal with the US is an interesting read

https://www.instituteforgovernment....mfortable-truths-about-quick-deal-uk-us-trade

 

[the dza]

Norway has an emergency break on immigration (which has never been used) if numbers become excessive.

I think that EEA membership is a sensible compromise. It was said repeatedly by members of the leave campaign that they were not proposing that we leave the EEA during the campaign. Crucially, it is also more likely to be achieved within the timescales. It could also be used as a staging post to a full exit if it could be demonstrated that it was in the countries interest to do so.

Yeah, previously, as far as I knew, a Norway type of arrangement meant free movement remained the same. I think, politically, we'd need more control on immigration than the current EEA members get, but I can't really find the information on what their options are. The emergency brake is a bit vague to me, maybe it's as straightforward as it sounds.

Also, the cynic in me thinks the EU wouldn't let us have such a good deal, otherwise too many current EU members might be inclined to leave and ask for the same arrangement.

I found this helpful for an 'at a glance' look at EEA membership (from http://reaction.life/liberal-minded-internationalists-risk-backing-wrong-horse/ ):

 

[scaramanga]

I can imagine that there will be a lot of countries that are desperate to have trading with us, but I would imagine they would be low wage countries which I would not want to compete with.

It's not about competing.

Our goods and services should be available to us at the lowest possible price. If other countries can do that cheaper then good for them. If we can't compete then we should be making/doing something else.

 

[scaramanga]

Norway has an emergency break on immigration (which has never been used) if numbers become excessive.

I think that EEA membership is a sensible compromise. It was said repeatedly by members of the leave campaign that they were not proposing that we leave the EEA during the campaign. Crucially, it is also more likely to be achieved within the timescales. It could also be used as a staging post to a full exit if it could be demonstrated that it was in the countries interest to do so.

I think an EEA model with an agreement that we are not required to provide in or out of work benefits to immigrants (an allowance to reflect our massive input to the EEA) would work well.

 

[milo]

Yeah, previously, as far as I knew, a Norway type of arrangement meant free movement remained the same. I think, politically, we'd need more control on immigration than the current EEA members get, but I can't really find the information on what their options are. The emergency brake is a bit vague to me, maybe it's as straightforward as it sounds.

Also, the cynic in me thinks the EU wouldn't let us have such a good deal, otherwise too many current EU members might be inclined to leave and ask for the same arrangement.

I found this helpful for an 'at a glance' look at EEA membership (from http://reaction.life/liberal-minded-internationalists-risk-backing-wrong-horse/ ):

The emergency break means that they can put a stop to additional immigration from the EU if the numbers are excessive. I believe that this is defined as putting pressure on public services. I will see if I can find some information on it, I read up on it quite entensively in the autumn but less so recently.

We are already a member of the EEA. There is an argument that leaving the EEA is a separate process to leaving the EU and there is a current court case going on to answer this.

 

[milo]

I think an EEA model with an agreement that we are not required to provide in or out of work benefits to immigrants (an allowance to reflect our massive input to the EEA) would work well.

I agree and think that would be achievable. I would think that the block on benefits would probably have to be limited to something like five years but I this shouldn't be a showstopper.

 

[scaramanga]

There's no problem getting a trade deal. Getting one that suits us will be more difficult. I would imagine that Trump would love to have a deal with us that opens up the NHS to US health providers but is that what we want?

Yep!

 

[parklane1]

There's no problem getting a trade deal. Getting one that suits us will be more difficult. I would imagine that Trump would love to have a deal with us that opens up the NHS to US health providers but is that what we want?

Sorry mate but that is just speculation.

 

[SpurMeUp]

A number of banks confirmed today they would be moving thousands of people into Europe post brexit.

As well as knocking tax revenues - their activities are worth millions probably billions - it might have a longer term effect on London and property prices. Probably a welcome easing of the inflated housing market.

Over the long term, will banks move more of their operations into the free EU trading area? If London becomes peripheral to say Frankfurt?

We know more or less what will happen with banks now. What about car factories? How will May get access to the EU for them? What will we have to give in return to get access without tariffs?

Is anyone feeling more sovereign by the way? Honest question.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[SpurMeUp]

It's authoritarian, dogmatic, undemocratic, unaccountable and economically inert. It's a power-hungry empire that thwarts the ambitions and diversity of its constituent nations.

There was an Italian guy on Newsnight last night saying - "you want a free trade area, scientific and security co-operation, all the good bits. If the UK gets that then everyone else will want that." Then why on earth persist with all the bad stuff? The transfer of political and legal powers, and the trafficking of unskilled labour etc. The stuff that counters sovereignty and damages communities, and serves no one other than proliferating the existence of the EU institutions themselves.

Where to start? Maybe diversity. The EU nations are some of the most diverse in the world. Linguistically, culturally they are massively distinct. The EU hasn't thwarted being French from being English has it? Walob.

How is it economically inert? The UK in the 1970s pre EU single market was economically inert! It's the largest trading block in the world. Far from inert, it's putting in place freer word trade deals each year - I think you quoted the recent Canadian agreement.

Essentially the key downsides for you are, cheap labour from Eastern Europe in the U.K., and the EU making laws to perpetuate free trade and people's rights?

Who will pick fruit, do the cleaning, or the unskilled building jobs? Why not have access to a free market and satisfy this economic need for labour?

Are m/any of these EU laws actually that bad for the uk? I can't think of any thy are clearly bad for us. I'm sure you'll have some examples [emoji4]




Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

A number of banks confirmed today they would be moving thousands of people into Europe post brexit.

As well as knocking tax revenues - their activities are worth millions probably billions - it might have a longer term effect on London and property prices. Probably a welcome easing of the inflated housing market.

Over the long term, will banks move more of their operations into the free EU trading area? If London becomes peripheral to say Frankfurt?

We know more or less what will happen with banks now. What about car factories? How will May get access to the EU for them? What will we have to give in return to get access without tariffs?

Is anyone feeling more sovereign by the way? Honest question.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

HSBC were talking about taking jobs to Hong Kong a couple of years ago, long before Brexit was even talked about. When we have had positive stories about the country post Brexit we were told to wait to see what the country looked like in a couple of years time, you yourself were one of those that tried to hold the mature/patient approach, soon as a story comes up that goes along with your prejudice you are quick to put it up, showing your bias and immaturity.

Should I mention how Google expanding in London in the lovely Kings Cross(if your ever down that way get yourself to the German Gymnasium) or Facebook locating its European headquarters in London.

Some Banking jobs will leave London, Europe with its slavish approach of regularity and red tape will not keep them for long as they are not productive enough, it is a problem with the EU. But anyway the future of finance is with China, Brazil, India that is where our country should be focusing. The city has an excellent record of reinventing itself and finding new opportunities, with technology and the skill set and the verve that London has shown I would expect it to be in a far better state in 5 years time then it is today, but the will be a few negative stories for you to get a hard on over.

As for your honest question about whether anyone is feeling more soverign?

Yes I am, if this is the start of Britain looking out into the world to trade with the world if it is the start of Britain making its on laws to truly govern ourselves, do you know I could go on but i feel we have done this a thousand times. Should I when the next tech firms expands and looks for bigger premises in London because it will hire more staff(seems to be in the Standard on a weekly basis) should I put it on here. You could put every negative story and childishly ask if people who voted Brexit still have the same ideological beliefs, only problem is it will take up this whole thread.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Where to start? Maybe diversity. The EU nations are some of the most diverse in the world. Linguistically, culturally they are massively distinct. The EU hasn't thwarted being French from being English has it? Walob.

How is it economically inert? The UK in the 1970s pre EU single market was economically inert! It's the largest trading block in the world. Far from inert, it's putting in place freer word trade deals each year - I think you quoted the recent Canadian agreement.

Essentially the key downsides for you are, cheap labour from Eastern Europe in the U.K., and the EU making laws to perpetuate free trade and people's rights?

Who will pick fruit, do the cleaning, or the unskilled building jobs? Why not have access to a free market and satisfy this economic need for labour?

Are m/any of these EU laws actually that bad for the uk? I can't think of any thy are clearly bad for us. I'm sure you'll have some examples [emoji4]




Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Maybe the same ones who used to do it pre 2008. When I was working on the building sites we used to get a lot of student teachers in the summer months, it would help them to pay off any debts they had. Maybe students could do seasonal fruit picking jobs to pay for their university fees instead of expecting a free ride, would also teach them a work ethic.

Maybe some of our long term unemployed could do the seasonal work or lose benefits.

It is well known that Europe is slow and over regulated and full of red tape that is why Europe is the area with slowest growth rates in the World. As for people's rights, do we really need the EU to give us rights or can we do it ourselves. Did we not vote to have Gay marriage, did we recently agree to take in Syrian asylymseekers(a true and just thing).

If the tories go to far to the right and forget about peoples rights and employment rights then the Liberals like they did in the 90's will become a political force again. That is the great thing about national politics, people get the governments they want. The liberals and Labour have some good sound policies on everyday life, if the tories ignore them and go to far to the right then they will get in. When Labour or the Liberals get in, if they go to far to the left then the tories will get in and so on. We will not be beholden to a bunch of gangsters in a super state that want to create an empire.

 

[milo]

Sorry mate but that is just speculation.

It is speculation that it will be harder to get a good deal than a bad one?

When we leave the customs union we will go from having over 50 trade deals with other countries to none. We will need to agree deals quickly but will not have experienced trade negotiator to do this. Our need for urgency and lack of experience, mean that it will be difficult (not impossible) for us to agree good deals. If you think that I am wrong, I would be interested in hearing what you think our strengths are in negotiations.

 

[milo]

A number of banks confirmed today they would be moving thousands of people into Europe post brexit.

As well as knocking tax revenues - their activities are worth millions probably billions - it might have a longer term effect on London and property prices. Probably a welcome easing of the inflated housing market.

Over the long term, will banks move more of their operations into the free EU trading area? If London becomes peripheral to say Frankfurt?

We know more or less what will happen with banks now. What about car factories? How will May get access to the EU for them? What will we have to give in return to get access without tariffs?

Is anyone feeling more sovereign by the way? Honest question.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Our top 5,000 earners generated roughly £12bn in income taxes last year.

 

[milo]

Yep!

Have a read of the Institute for Government piece that I posted earlier? It goes into what the US is likely to want in a trade deal.

 

[parklane1]

It is speculation that it will be harder to get a good deal than a bad one?

When we leave the customs union we will go from having over 50 trade deals with other countries to none. We will need to agree deals quickly but will not have experienced trade negotiator to do this. Our need for urgency and lack of experience, mean that it will be difficult (not impossible) for us to agree good deals. If you think that I am wrong, I would be interested in hearing what you think our strengths are in negotiations.

I am not saying you are wrong mate, what i am saying is the NO ONE knows for sure what will happen. From the minute the result came in there have been several folks who have been doing the DOOM and GLOOM and spamming this thread with links from so called experts about how we are ALL going to suffer because of the result.

Now i have no idea if it will be sunshine and cream or brick on a shovel but there seems to be a few who are quick to post what may happen ( along as it fits there DOOM and GLOOM narrative) but so far its not been the collapse of the country ( as some were trying to suggest it would), we have no idea how it will turn out so lets wait and see before we start writing obituaries for the country.

 

[Baleforce]

I think all the positive spin stories have been posted here quite quickly too

 

[milo]

I am not saying you are wrong mate, what i am saying is the NO ONE knows for sure what will happen. From the minute the result came in there have been several folks who have been doing the DOOM and GLOOM and spamming this thread with links from so called experts about how we are ALL going to suffer because of the result.

Now i have no idea if it will be sunshine and cream or brick on a shovel but there seems to be a few who are quick to post what may happen ( along as it fits there DOOM and GLOOM narrative) but so far its not been the collapse of the country ( as some were trying to suggest it would), we have no idea how it will turn out so lets wait and see before we start writing obituaries for the country.

It is quite easy to see whether we are in a strong or weak negotiating position for any trade talks. Our need to conclude deals quickly is a disadvantage, as is us not having any experienced trade negotiators. Any country that did not try to take advantage of that would be selling their citizens and businesses short.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I think all the positive spin stories have been posted here quite quickly too

I have been doing that, though to be fair it was to try in small way to offset all the doom and gloom talk. I am fully prepared to not post every time a foreign company creates new jobs in this country if the other side do not post every time a few jobs leave the country.

You could call that a fair trade deal, and what would you know it took no time to broker.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I am not saying you are wrong mate, what i am saying is the NO ONE knows for sure what will happen. From the minute the result came in there have been several folks who have been doing the DOOM and GLOOM and spamming this thread with links from so called experts about how we are ALL going to suffer because of the result.

Now i have no idea if it will be sunshine and cream or brick on a shovel but there seems to be a few who are quick to post what may happen ( along as it fits there DOOM and GLOOM narrative) but so far its not been the collapse of the country ( as some were trying to suggest it would), we have no idea how it will turn out so lets wait and see before we start writing obituaries for the country.

Difference is, we now know we will not be in the single market. As a direct result of that some banks have published their contingencies so they can keep access by moving staff to Europe. It's not doom - they are not closing their operations in London. But it is certainally worth reporting as it's a direct result of brexit. You can speculate on what the longer term effects of that will be.


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