Politics, politics, politics

[milo]

Sorry, thought you meant long grass for Sturgeon (or at least her protests).
I don't see how she can hold out for too long over Brexit.
What she might be doing however is sending a message to the EU in the guise of her conversation with Sturgeon. The EU wants the UK to act quickly over Article 50 to avoid all the uncertainty but refuse to talk options until it is invoked. She is effectively saying to them I am not in a hurry and will take time to get everyone here on board. It might just help bring the EU to the table ahead of article 50.

There is no way that it is going to happen quickly. She has just set up a new department to handle it and another to deal with international trade. It will take them at least a year to be fully operational. If it is going to happen, I think that you are looking at the end of 2017 to trigger Article 50. If it is not done by then, I cannot see it happening this side of an election because there will not be time to complete it.

 

[Glenda's Legs]

There is no way that it is going to happen quickly. She has just set up a new department to handle it and another to deal with international trade. It will take them at least a year to be fully operational. If it is going to happen, I think that you are looking at the end of 2017 to trigger Article 50. If it is not done by then, I cannot see it happening this side of an election because there will not be time to complete it.

I think she'll drag it out as long as possible, but I'm not sure that 18 months will be acceptable - there are too many dissenters within her own party. I think end of this year/beginning 2017 is more likely. Time will tell.

 

[milo]

I think she'll drag it out as long as possible, but I'm not sure that 18 months will be acceptable - there are too many dissenters within her own party. I think end of this year/beginning 2017 is more likely. Time will tell.

She has already said that she won't trigger it this year. In the first three quarters of next year we have the German and French elections, we will not want this to become a political football during those or to waste time negotiating with governments that are on their way out. Besides, as I have already said, the Brexit departments will take a while to be set up, so will not be ready to go much before the end of next year. EU budgets run on the calendar year, leaving at the end of a year will be simpler than midway through, so whenever we do it, I would expect a December notification. Finally, we have to have a general election by May 2020, if we haven't triggered Article 50 by the end of next year, we will be running it too close to the next election.

 

[monkeybarry]

She has already said that she won't trigger it this year. In the first three quarters of next year we have the German and French elections, we will not want this to become a political football during those or to waste time negotiating with governments that are on their way out. Besides, as I have already said, the Brexit departments will take a while to be set up, so will not be ready to go much before the end of next year. EU budgets run on the calendar year, leaving at the end of a year will be simpler than midway through, so whenever we do it, I would expect a December notification. Finally, we have to have a general election by May 2020, if we haven't triggered Article 50 by the end of next year, we will be running it too close to the next election.

Exactly this

Clever political tactics could see her get Germany and France to "support" the delay

Hardly healthy for anyone involved

 

[scaramanga]

So, Owen Smith has declared himself economically illiterate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818050

He'll fit right in as leader of that lot.

 

[scaramanga]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

Surely it's not Sturgeon's decision to make. Doesn't the UK Parliament have to grant Scotland the chance to have a referendum?

In which case there's no way they'd get Labour support as that would make them unelectable pretty much forever. The Conservatives won't grant it because they mostly believe in the Union.

I don't see what grounds she has to claim there will be a referendum. It's like me saying I might drop income tax next year.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

So, Owen Smith has declared himself economically illiterate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818050

He'll fit right in as leader of that lot.

So your definition of economic illiteracy, is any proposal that might have a negative impact on you? There are more schools of economics than the free market voodoo theories that you ascribe to. Also, your economic interest is not necessarily the interest of others. Trickle down is dead.

 

[scaramanga]

So your definition of economic illiteracy, is any proposal that might have a negative impact on you? There are more schools of economics than the free market voodoo theories that you ascribe to. Also, your economic interest is not necessarily the interest of others. Trickle down is dead.

Far from it. Economically illiterate is not understanding why capital gains tax has to be significantly lower than income tax.

I hope for his sake he just has a habit of spouting off without thinking about what he's saying because otherwise his understanding of economics is similar to that of a junior school kid.

The top end tax stuff isn't so much an economics issue (although we do need to remain competitive) as an electoral one. Start pushing too hard for what is a rich man's tax rate on a fairly middling London salary and you start to lose votes in those Labour heartlands such as Islington.

 

[parklane1]

So, Owen Smith has declared himself economically illiterate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818050

He'll fit right in as leader of that lot.

Its about time they raised the higher tax level,( and i say that as someone who it will effect).

 

[parklane1]

So Brexit is not all doom and gloom. Who would have thought.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36818055

 

[StephenH]

So Brexit is not all doom and gloom. Who would have thought.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36818055

Other than Fosters and Wine what else is there

 

[parklane1]

Other than Fosters and Wine what else is there

Have you never tasted Kangaroo meat?

 

[StephenH]

Have you never tasted Kangaroo meat?

Ostrich is farmed big time in OZ and I like that - never tasted Roo

 

[milo]

So Brexit is not all doom and gloom. Who would have thought.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36818055

Good news but we cannot agree a deal with them until we have left the EU. I would expect quite a few countries to make similar noises, we are going to be desperate to do a deal and that will mean that we are not in such a strong negotiating position and may be prepared to accept lesser terms.

We need to be realistic, the EU has 50 trade deals that we will need to replace to find ourselves in the same position as we are now. They take on average 7 years to negotiate and we do not currently have any trade negotiators.

 

[richie_spur]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

Surely it's not Sturgeon's decision to make. Doesn't the UK Parliament have to grant Scotland the chance to have a referendum?

In which case there's no way they'd get Labour support as that would make them unelectable pretty much forever. The Conservatives won't grant it because they mostly believe in the Union.

I don't see what grounds she has to claim there will be a referendum. It's like me saying I might drop income tax next year.

She doesn't appear to have thought through this very well. I realise she is blinded by a nationalist agenda (and using the EU as an excuse), but how well would Scotland trade with the rest of the UK under WTO tariffs? I don't see they have a very good bargaining position with the rest of the EU for joining either (especially as they would no longer be financially propped up by the English taxpayer) and, unless free movement was agreed with the EU, why would we allow Scotland free movement of people?

 

[scaramanga]

Good news but we cannot agree a deal with them until we have left the EU. I would expect quite a few countries to make similar noises, we are going to be desperate to do a deal and that will mean that we are not in such a strong negotiating position and may be prepared to accept lesser terms.

We need to be realistic, the EU has 50 trade deals that we will need to replace to find ourselves in the same position as we are now. They take on average 7 years to negotiate and we do not currently have any trade negotiators.

The more countries that publicly announce that they want free trade deals, the stronger our hand is.

Also, isn't 7 years the EU time to negotiate a deal? The EU legislation I've dealt with is at least 10x longer than required and is the very worst side of self-serving politics. I think we could comfortably do what the EU do in a fifth of the time, and that's being generous.

 

[milo]

The more countries that publicly announce that they want free trade deals, the stronger our hand is.

Also, isn't 7 years the EU time to negotiate a deal? The EU legislation I've dealt with is at least 10x longer than required and is the very worst side of self-serving politics. I think we could comfortably do what the EU do in a fifth of the time, and that's being generous.

Absolutely but it is going to be difficult to negotiate decent deals with the rest of the world until we have settled our trading position with the EU.

Comprehensive trade deals take a long time to negotiate but I wouldn't want to pretend that I have any idea how long they take. Only needing the approval of two states obviously makes it easier than negotiating on behalf of 28 but we as a market of 65 million as opposed to 500 million, we are less attractive to other countries and will carry less weight.

Of course the easiest way of concluding a deal quickly is to accept the other sides terms.

 

[scaramanga]

Absolutely but it is going to be difficult to negotiate decent deals with the rest of the world until we have settled our trading position with the EU.

Comprehensive trade deals take a long time to negotiate but I wouldn't want to pretend that I have any idea how long they take. Only needing the approval of two states obviously makes it easier than negotiating on behalf of 28 but we as a market of 65 million as opposed to 500 million, we are less attractive to other countries and will carry less weight.

Of course the easiest way of concluding a deal quickly is to accept the other sides terms.

Seeing as most of the world is trading with us from behind EU tariff barriers, I suspect most would be keen on no tariffs at all. I don't see a problem there.

 

[milo]

Seeing as most of the world is trading with us from behind EU tariff barriers, I suspect most would be keen on no tariffs at all. I don't see a problem there.

What about non-tariff barriers? What about the service sector? What about the impact of zero tariffs on UK manufacturing?

 

[scaramanga]

What about non-tariff barriers?

They're already in place, why would they change?

What about the service sector?

It's the same as materials. Money flows one way, benefit the other. It's not that special.

What about the impact of zero tariffs on UK manufacturing?

It's not done us much damage in the EU. As with all industry, competition will improve efficiency and quality or price. Competition is good.