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Politics, politics, politics

Glenda's Legs said:
I believe the economists who advised the Treasury against joining the Euro are the same economists now advising against Leave.
I have seen that mentioned in a few articles. I am typing from my phone now but will try to find those articles later
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That is the problem which ever way you look at it' economists are only giving a opinion, they get things right but they also get a lot of things wrong.
 
parklane1 said:
That is the problem which ever way you look at it' economists are only giving a opinion, they get things right but they also get a lot of things wrong.
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My reply was in the context of your question in relation to the Euro "If they were so wrong then, why not now"? So you could equally say about the same economists, having advised against entering into the Euro, "if they were so right then, why not now"?
 
re
Glenda's Legs said:
My reply was in the context of your question in relation to the Euro "If they were so wrong then, why not now"? So you could equally say about the same economists, having advised against entering into the Euro, "if they were so right then, why not now"?
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Of course they could get things wrong which is the point i was ( trying) to make. My objection is that the stayers seem to do nothing but talk about how ( some) economists are saying we would suffer if we left, and that is what they dwell on and not the other things that matter to most folks, the schools are full, the health service is on its knees and the welfare system is failing.

Now i am not saying that all these things will be solved by a exit vote but scare stories about how the country will crumble if we leave ( according to some economists) and as we have already discussed they are well know for getting things wrong. At the end of the day its down to each person to vote how he feels and that's the way it should be, and if the majority vote to leave ( and i do not think that will happen) i hope those who persist in the notion that the leavers are all anti immigration will give that idea a rest.

We live in hope but i doubt they will.
 
parklane1 said:
That is the problem which ever way you look at it' economists are only giving a opinion, they get things right but they also get a lot of things wrong.
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If i can be bothered to vote, I will vote out. So that I can see in future years I did. This is because of a massive mistrust of the way the European Union is headed and the lunacy of anyone thinking we can make them(Germany) change course.

But some of the scaremongering from the people in mainland Europe is bizarre. As for the IMF would that be the IMF run by the former left bank failed politician from France who told us that the austerity was wrong 5 years ago but then had to admit it was the right thing after all, the same lady who is being investigated for fraud, hmmm.

It might be better for us financially to be in the EU though when the trouble hit in 2008 our being not in the euro helped us, even if we had to help to bail out the currency despite not being in it. But yeah I can see we export a lot to them so maybe it is better to be in the EU for finances. But I would rather not here it from someone with such vested interests as Lagarde a woman who is clearly after a shot at president and needs the UK's net contribution to the EU project so lazy French farmers can keep getting their subsidies.

By the way despite previously being a fan I think Farage is no better then all the others in this debate. It is why I am not even certain to vote, probably will. But then at the last election I just drew a penis on the ballot paper and popped it in the box. The wife thinks I might have brain cancer or something. I just think as I get older I can be more and more belligerent and not worry what people think.

If I were young or poor I might worry about the way the UK is going but in or out of the EU we are going to be run by a set of arse^oles just depends which accent they speak with and as long as it is not a Birmingham one I am not going to get to worked up about it.
 
parklane1 said:
Are those the same ones who said we should join the euro? if so they were wrong then so why not now.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1371736.stm
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The economist who wrote the Treasury paper on the financial impact of leaving the EU was the economist who kept us out of the Euro. I assume that you would say that he was right then and is right now. Similarly, Nigel Lawson was the chancellor who had the pound shadowing the Deutsch Mark and believed in a fixed exchange rate, this led to us joining and later crashing out of the ERM. He was wrong then, is he wrong now?
 
parklane1 said:
That is the problem though ( imo) both sides are not really giving any proof of what will happen. All we get is some econmists giving their opinion ( and lets be honest they have been wrong several times before) and the stay campaign highlighting it as a reason we should stay.

The truth is no one can say what will really happen ( its guesswork in most parts) what it will come down too is the individual choice of the voters. I know which way i lean and all the scare stories from both sides are to be discussed equally and ( imo) that is not happening, see my earlier post when i commented on those who think/believe that all those who want out are doing so just because they/we are against immigration. Which is cobblers and is yet another scare comment.
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I think that you are being disingenuous if you think that economists are just giving an opinion and that they have not provided proof. All of the serious economic bodies publish their methodology, so it is quite clear how they came to their conclusions.

There is very little disagreement over the short term impact of a vote to leave the EU and that is because it is not a lot more complicated to predict than if there are less apples, the price of apples will go up. Markets do not like uncertainty, as we have seen over the last few weeks. A vote for Brexit creates massive uncertainty and that will take several years to resolve. During that time, foreign companies are very likely to put investment into the UK on hold and investors who can, will move their money elsewhere. This would have a cost on all of us and this would be particularly pronounced as we have not recovered from the last recession yet. I cannot recall us having back to back recessions before.

I would agree that the picture is less clear in the medium term and this is magnified by the Brexit campaign not saying what kind of deal it would seek with the EU. It seems unlikely to me that we would be able to agree a deal that gives us access to the EU on better terms than we have now and even if we could mitigate against this by increasing trade outside the EU, it is likely that this would take years to build up.

Economists such as Patrick Minford who make more favourable short term predictions do so on us following an ultra liberal economic policy of cutting all barriers on all imports, cutting employment rights and protection for the environment and maintaining the current levels of immigration. They accept that this would end manufacturing in this country and that the economy would be more or less entirely service based. I could be wrong but I do not think that many people voting for Brexit this week think that this is what they are voting for.
 
milo said:
Economists such as Patrick Minford who make more favourable short term predictions do so on us following an ultra liberal economic policy of cutting all barriers on all imports, cutting employment rights and protection for the environment and maintaining the current levels of immigration. They accept that this would end manufacturing in this country and that the economy would be more or less entirely service based. I could be wrong but I do not think that many people voting for Brexit this week think that this is what they are voting for.
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That would probably make me vote for Brexit.
 
scaramanga said:
That would probably make me vote for Brexit.
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I thought that might be the case but you do not know if that is what would follow and the leaders of the Leave campaign have promised pretty much the opposite.

I think that it is the economies best chance of success if we did leave the EU but it would come at a high price. There would be a huge amount of resentment within the country about reduced job security and employment benefits. Parts of the north would suffer greatly from the end of manufacturing. London would become even more of a home for foreign billionaires hiding and/or laundering their money. If politicians continued to blame immigrants for their unpopular decisions it could become very toxic.
 
Uncertainty is never a good thing when you are comfortable. So for many people brexit just isn't worth the risk. I will stay for that reason primarily. Also most of the major personalities in the leave campaign are colossal c*nts.
 
LutonSpurs said:
Uncertainty is never a good thing when you are comfortable. So for many people brexit just isn't worth the risk. I will stay for that reason primarily. Also most of the major personalities in the leave campaign are colossal c*nts.
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In truth you can say that about both sides of the debate.
 
milo said:
I know that "people have had enough of experts" but claminess is my particular field of expertise and leave definitely have more :p
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Well you might know more about being a clam ;) then me but we will disagree about that ( as well). :D
 
It's 25 minutes long and some of you might not like what he has to say but this is well worth watching

 
scaramanga said:
The EU is a huge amount over the top of a customs union.

The biggest is obviously the complete lack of borders. Whilst I believe immigration is a good thing and that anyone should be free to work wherever they like, I don't think they should be able to move unchecked.

I also don't believe that the tax payer should shoulder the cost of any provision for those who have yet to pay in a significant proportion. I'm not an actuary and I have no plans to become one so I'd have to take advice, but a best guess would be something like 5 years of average salary payments or above. A far better solution would be that all healthcare and out of work costs are covered by the person's country of origin under that country's own rules. In work benefits would be provided by the country of residence but capped at the country of origin's rates.

Worst of all are the non product related regulations that have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with socialism. The Working Time Directive, Solvent Emissions Directive, etc - these are huge costs to businesses that have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with protectionism.
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How do you allow working people free movement but check everyone else? What is wrong with being free to travel to Italy at the drop of a hat - I'm in Lake Como now. In less than 2 hours you can be in Barcalona, Milan, Lisonbon, why would you want to check that? Its terrific. It would be awful if you needed a visa.

Fair play with country services and costs. But does it really cost the UK a lot? What would it cost to administer a setup like you outline? Whilst business would love to make more and more cash, they have to be regulated. Is it a bad thing to stop pollution, or to protect peoples' working conditions? I'm sure you are making enough cash from your biz, and these small EU laws don't stop that. Sadly they've become seen as 'meddling' or the other intervening. A bit like if The Scum were able to dictate the FAs policy. This has all been built up in the media for a couple of decades - as it sells papers. Real stories about Europe are fuking dull, stories about how they are controlling us, meddling, controlling far more interesting! Publishers like them.

But the reality is, the EU is pretty boring, functional, and has done the UK proud. If you look at where we were in the 70s, we are in a far far better place. Take out the emotion, and the 'them and us' media gonads, which is gonads, and its a positive association that we'd be crazy to leave.
 
These are the key points to Migration based on the independent watchdog:
  • The current scale of migration to the UK, 330,000 a year, of which roughly half is from the EU, is completely unsustainable.
  • As a result our population is projected to rise by half a million every year – the equivalent of a city the size of Liverpool.
  • England is already twice as crowded as Germany and 3.5 times as crowded as France.
  • Population growth adds to the pressures on public services when public spending is being reduced
  • Those now being accepted in the EU as refugees, and their families, will become EU citizens entitled to free movement to the UK in 5-6 years.
  • If Turkey were to join the EU 79 million people would have the right to live and work in the UK and Turkey would become a significant power in the EU.
  • The split between non EU and EU migrants is nearly 50/50 year on year
Migration Watch revealed immigration costs us £17billion a year
 
I've not watched it all but isn't that the point, you need a 25 minute video just to give you a brief EU overview, it's so bloated and bureaucratic that no one understands it.
 
SpurMeUp said:
How do you allow working people free movement but check everyone else? What is wrong with being free to travel to Italy at the drop of a hat - I'm in Lake Como now. In less than 2 hours you can be in Barcalona, Milan, Lisonbon, why would you want to check that? Its terrific. It would be awful if you needed a visa.
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I doubt you will need visa's for Europe if we vote to leave, I can already visit dozens of non EU countries without a visa.
 
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