I think they are undoubtedly a political earth quake. Yes, local elections are often where people register a protest vote, but that protest vote has not generally gone to new or fringe parties. UKIP, nor the Brexit Party never got near what Reform just got. For the first time Reform actually have real power and influence, for example. Yes, only over local authorities, but this isn't a protest vote, this is handing Reform the keys to local decision making over signifant parts of the country. It reminds me of how the SNP's rise from a fringe political party to the dominant force in Scottish politics occurred. Started odd by them winning significantly in local elections then in Hollyrood and then winning consistently or competing for every Westminster seat in Scotland.
The key difference between Reform and Farage's previous parties is the level of backing he has. Theyve seen significant defections from the tories both in terms of political candidates and donors.
The significance of the Reform results wasn't reflected just in the seats and mayoralities they won, but the fact that they were inevitably the closest challenger in the seats the other parties won.
And its building upon a significant vote share in the 2024 GE and first WM seats, which certainly were not protest votes. This is an absolute earth quake occurring at an almost unprecedented pace. They are a serious political force with more support, and importantly far broader support and appeal and significantly more financial backing than any of Farage's previous parties.