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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Gutter Boy said:
I think that's Labour just thrown away the next general election. The North remembers...
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We'll see, but I'm not certain that leave Labour voters in leave constituencies will put the Tories in over a left-wing government, particularly when the General Election offer is made. I'd be surprised if Labour doesn't have some constituency polling on this issue, I'm pretty sure there is some about.
 
It's clear a GE is the best option.
Shake up the make up of the house.
Few seats would be that safe, depending on how voters view their local MP and what type of democracy individuals believe in.

Maybe you a leaver Tory in Domonic Grieves constituency.
Or you live in Streatham.
Or you are a Tory who believes in compromise and integrity in Nick Bowled constituency.
A leaver with a remainer MP; a remainer with a leaver MP.

All bets are off.
 
the dza said:
We'll see, but I'm not certain that leave Labour voters in leave constituencies will put the Tories in over a left-wing government, particularly when the General Election offer is made. I'd be surprised if Labour doesn't have some constituency polling on this issue, I'm pretty sure there is some about.
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They will. Brexit wasn't an issue in 2017 because both parties had the same policy - to implement leave - so it became about domestic policies. But Labour will get wiped out outside of London if they become remain to the Tories' leave. 61% of Labour constituencies are leave.
 
They are talking about doing something again on Wednesday. Maybe they should all drop some acid and see what they come up with.
 
monkeybarry said:
It's clear a GE is the best option.
Shake up the make up of the house.
Few seats would be that safe, depending on how voters view their local MP and what type of democracy individuals believe in.

Maybe you a leaver Tory in Domonic Grieves constituency.
Or you live in Streatham.
Or you are a Tory who believes in compromise and integrity in Nick Bowled constituency.
A leaver with a remainer MP; a remainer with a leaver MP.

All bets are off.
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A GE will only present the same situation - a Tory minority propped up by the DUP, or a Labour minority who give the SNP a shot at independence in exchange for the keys of number 10.
 
Gutter Boy said:
They will. Brexit wasn't an issue in 2017 because both parties had the same policy - to implement leave - so it became about domestic policies. But Labour will get wiped out outside of London if they become remain to the Tories' leave. 61% of Labour constituencies are leave.
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Even then, in 2017 Labour wanted to be in a customs union and aligned with the single market. So a customs union and in the single market (via efta) isn't that big of a move from 2017. If any soft Brexit happens with a Tory government at the helm, it's the Tories that will lose more votes over it imo, as they have more leave voters (and ardent hard-brexiters).
 
Gutter Boy said:
A GE will only present the same situation - a Tory minority propped up by the DUP, or a Labour minority who give the SNP a shot at independence in exchange for the keys of number 10.
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The SNP only want a vote on independence if they can win it. If we end up with a soft-brexit under a Labour government, they won't have anything to hold another independence vote over.
 
SpurMeUp said:
How many of these things are we likely to want to do? Easy to write a list of the things that the EU covers, but the vast majority of laws are determined in the UK. The laws the Eu covers tend to be on areas that are for the greater good and that, if you inspect them, we would not change anyway. Like the working time directive. Do your staff work the full 48 hours a week as is, as standard? If not then there is wiggle room for you and who is suggesting forcing people to work more than 48 hours against their will!? It’s is not a law we’d pass!?
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As per usual, you've entirely missed the point - I take some of the blame for that as I'm not very good at putting concepts into very simple terms. Rather than use real world examples (which aren't getting through) I'll try theoretical ones.

Let's say that we, as an electorate, vote in a Labour government who create some rules that are really bad for all of us, like high taxes, magic money trees, etc. In 4 or 5 years time, we have the ability to vote in a government that can reverse that legislation - no government can bind the hands of the next. It's a vital tenet of democracy. However, in the EU, if that Labour government votes for an EU regulation that's bad for us, the next government cannot reverse that decision. If we're in the EU then we are forever bound by the decisions of that government at that time.

SpurMeUp said:
If the gov granted 5% off one sector, other sectors would want it too. And we can reduce taxation across the board, so why not do that? So again it’s not something we would do, cut tax in one industry, and it is therefore no loss.
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Governments alter legislation to promote some industries over others all the time. Whilst others want what some have, I'd hate to believe you're serious in making that an argument against us being able to do so - you're capable of working a keyboard so I have to assume you're putting up a straw man.

SpurMeUp said:
What services are you thinking off? As things stand we have all sorts of US companies invested in the UK with offices that serve as a European HQ. Many now have plans to move out, as Sony have.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Again, the point has gone sailing over your head.

Swap services and the US for hipsters and Peru if you like. That fact, that again I'll assume you understand but are simply being obtuse, is that we cannot create any trade deal that suits us whatsoever. We are bound to only be a part of trade deals that suit an entirely disparate group of countries, none of which closely resemble our own.

Returning to my second point, do you think Sony would be moving out if we were able to set them a CT level of 5% for EU profits? Same goes for Nissan.
 
monkeybarry said:
It's clear a GE is the best option.
Shake up the make up of the house.
Few seats would be that safe, depending on how voters view their local MP and what type of democracy individuals believe in.

Maybe you a leaver Tory in Domonic Grieves constituency.
Or you live in Streatham.
Or you are a Tory who believes in compromise and integrity in Nick Bowled constituency.
A leaver with a remainer MP; a remainer with a leaver MP.

All bets are off.
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If that happens, can the Conservatives put up a candidate in Buckingham? Not quite sure of the rules there.
 
the dza said:
They are talking about doing something again on Wednesday. Maybe they should all drop some acid and see what they come up with.
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Pointless doing it again on Wednesday, you may not like the Tories but to give them credit they've allowed free votes on this whilst the cabinet abstained both times. Labour have whipped both times which kind of belies the process depending on your viewpoint.
 
scaramanga said:
As per usual, you've entirely missed the point - I take some of the blame for that as I'm not very good at putting concepts into very simple terms. Rather than use real world examples (which aren't getting through) I'll try theoretical ones.

Let's say that we, as an electorate, vote in a Labour government who create some rules that are really bad for all of us, like high taxes, magic money trees, etc. In 4 or 5 years time, we have the ability to vote in a government that can reverse that legislation - no government can bind the hands of the next. It's a vital tenet of democracy. However, in the EU, if that Labour government votes for an EU regulation that's bad for us, the next government cannot reverse that decision. If we're in the EU then we are forever bound by the decisions of that government at that time.
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Hehe when you're losing an arguement you don't half whine! "You just don't understand!" :) No need to blame yourself.

Your point is, we are sovereign, the UK can re-vote on any mistakes it make. Thus you would back a second referendum on Brexit?

I hate to sound like you, but you have missed the point here. It's an arguement for pragmatism over blind principle: if the EU controls laws that we would not change anyway, what is it we are missing? We would not change the working time directive because forcing people to work more than 48 hours a week without consent would never get votes in a democracy. And most people would also find it unreasonable. So although we can actually influence Europe (and the working time directive we changed to suit us if I recall plus we have a veto on new laws we don't like?) we are not missing anything. No we can't change free mobile phone roaming laws. But who would apart from mobile phone companies? Same applies to air polution laws. What you are missing is eu laws are not "really bad for all of us" as you put it.


scaramanga said:
Governments alter legislation to promote some industries over others all the time. Whilst others want what some have, I'd hate to believe you're serious in making that an argument against us being able to do so - you're capable of working a keyboard so I have to assume you're putting up a straw man.
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There is a big difference between changing legislation and giving one industry 5% off its tax bill. Yet I would suggest that if we really wanted to, there are ways for us to support an industry whilst in the EU (as you said changing legislation for example or some kind of rebate or investment rebate, see SEIS etc). Being able to trade freely is worth not having complete freedom to cut tax for one industry. Or was Margaret Thatcher wrong when she backed this continent wide free trading setup, which has seen the UK go from broke to prosperous?


scaramanga said:
Again, the point has gone sailing over your head.

Swap services and the US for hipsters and Peru if you like. That fact, that again I'll assume you understand but are simply being obtuse, is that we cannot create any trade deal that suits us whatsoever. We are bound to only be a part of trade deals that suit an entirely disparate group of countries, none of which closely resemble our own.

Returning to my second point, do you think Sony would be moving out if we were able to set them a CT level of 5% for EU profits? Same goes for Nissan.
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You mentioned selling services to the US, I just asked for exmaples. Probably has gone over my head. I take your point re. bespoke UK trade deal. Fair point. It is the price we pay. But is it offset by the EUs weight to negotiate good deals? Obviously all nations want access to the EUs 550m consumers, and will normally cut better deals to access such a large market. It makes us less agile, but then trade deals are not quick things to broker are they? They take years to put in place, and smaller nations tend to be lower down the pecking order for obvious reasons. Then there is the power of trade regulation to sort your own out. The EU has clought to bully and manipulate in its favour, not sure we do.

Yes I think Sony would have left anyway. The cost of moving their European HQ to Amsterdam would have been significant. But with all else equal, apart from Brexit, they chose to be in the EU. To have unrestricted access to those 500m people. That is why they were in London. Pre-Brexit we didn't have to bribe companies to be here. They came of their own accord.
 
scaramanga said:
If that happens, can the Conservatives put up a candidate in Buckingham? Not quite sure of the rules there.
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I think Bercow said he is stepping down after this Parliament didn't he?

So they could choose to put a different candidate forward in any event as the speaker is chosen per session. And if it wasn't a Tory govt, it's unlikely to be a Tory speaker.
To help unite Parliament, you might even see independent Speakers.

@Gutter Boy
That is why I think we will get an influential outcome.
Labour will deselect some people.
The Tories will too - even though that isn't usually their approach.

I would expect to see alot of change in the house as well as in how Parliamentary business is delivered.
 
Gutter Boy said:
As you know, my normal home is Green. But for the past few months it feels like the backbench Tories are the only ones standing up for the majority of the country - the working and middle classes beyond the London bubble. The only ones preventing the great sell-out
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Enjoy the dark side of self and racism!
 
Gutter Boy said:
They will. Brexit wasn't an issue in 2017 because both parties had the same policy - to implement leave - so it became about domestic policies. But Labour will get wiped out outside of London if they become remain to the Tories' leave. 61% of Labour constituencies are leave.
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There are two things that are clear imho, Leave is a more important factor amongst grass roots Tories, so it is a bigger election issue for the Tories. Secondly that 2017 showed the North will not, apart from in a few affluent constituenxies vote for Tories.
 
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