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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Gutter Boy said:
Not once you explain to people what the CU actually is - that it takes away all economic sovereignty. We would be contracting our entire economic policy - tariffs, quotas, trade agreements etc. - to Brussels.
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you think - unless you can back this up?

also as almost half the voters voted to remain you only need a relatively small amount to switch over (net) and you have the majority.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Not once you explain to people what the CU actually is - that it takes away all economic sovereignty. We would be contracting our entire economic policy - tariffs, quotas, trade agreements etc. - to Brussels.
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They will probably do a better job than our shower.
don't see the problem.
 
r-u-s-x said:
you think - unless you can back this up?

also as almost half the voters voted to remain you only need a relatively small amount to switch over (net) and you have the majority.
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You just have to explain to people how it works for Turkey. The implications of a CU haven't even really been discussed yet in popular debate because even the remainers don't dare get into that.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Im well aware the vote was all things to all people, but it is undeniable the EU exerting control over our policies and Freedom of Movement were two key factors in many (most?) leave votes.

It is also undeniable (to my knowledge at least!) these two factors will be compromised with any off the shelf option except Canada - which Im pretty sure people have already dismissed.

Any sort of Canada+/Norway+ deal will require significant negotiation still, and Id wager the EU will baulk at those negotiations including a compromise of their four pillars.

Which brings us right back to square 1.
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"undeniable the EU exerting control over our policies and Freedom of Movement were two key factors in many (most?) leave votes."

you only need two percent voting to give two fingers up to the establishment ( a common theme at the time ) and the vote is switched, so yes it is deniable.

The EU do not want no deal and are willing to negotiate within the four freedoms, we come to them with a plan to do this and they will negotiate imo - they are not scared of no deal however and if we dont do that it will go that way. its exactly the same as it was two years ago except we now know whats achievable and that we fear no deal more than the Eu.
 
StephenH said:
They will probably do a better job than our shower.
don't see the problem.
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Because it would be in their interests to advance themselves at our cost - i.e actively screw us over.

High tariffs on all the stuff we make and/or need, low tariffs on all the stuff they make and/or need
 
Gutter Boy said:
You just have to explain to people how it works for Turkey. The implications of a CU haven't even really been discussed yet in popular debate because even the remainers don't dare get into that.
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When you explain th CU everyone wants in - its been discussed in popular debate pre referendum (this sweeping statement stuff with nothing to back it up is really easy isnt it)
 
r-u-s-x said:
"undeniable the EU exerting control over our policies and Freedom of Movement were two key factors in many (most?) leave votes."

you only need two percent voting to give two fingers up to the establishment ( a common theme at the time ) and the vote is switched, so yes it is deniable.

The EU do not want no deal and are willing to negotiate within the four freedoms, we come to them with a plan to do this and they will negotiate imo - they are not scared of no deal however and if we dont do that it will go that way. its exactly the same as it was two years ago except we now know whats achievable and that we fear no deal more than the Eu.
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We don't know what is achievable, because leave has been negotiated by remainers.

It's like Labour putting Ken Livingstone in charge of their anti-Semitism inquiry.
 
r-u-s-x said:
When you explain th CU everyone wants in - its been discussed in popular debate pre referendum (this sweeping statement stuff with nothing to back it up is really easy isnt it)
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Why haven't Labour been transparent then that all their manifesto pledges on nationalisation are illegal in the customs union?
 
r-u-s-x said:
"undeniable the EU exerting control over our policies and Freedom of Movement were two key factors in many (most?) leave votes."

you only need two percent voting to give two fingers up to the establishment ( a common theme at the time ) and the vote is switched, so yes it is deniable.

The EU do not want no deal and are willing to negotiate within the four freedoms, we come to them with a plan to do this and they will negotiate imo - they are not scared of no deal however and if we dont do that it will go that way. its exactly the same as it was two years ago except we now know whats achievable and that we fear no deal more than the Eu.
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So you deny that freedom of movement and EU governance were major factors in the leave vote? Are you sure?

The EU do not want no deal because despite popular belief we do actually hold some cards and it will adversely effect them. I think they are scared of it, but I also think they know they can bully our weak leadership and will set about doing so to get things their way.

The four freedoms are a fundamental issue, if we go back willing to work within them then - lets be blunt - whats the fudging point? Its not Brexit.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Because it would be in their interests to advance themselves at our cost - i.e actively screw us over.

High tariffs on all the stuff we make and/or need, low tariffs on all the stuff they make and/or need
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I honestly think it makes little difference in the big scheme of things.
I would love to go back to Bavaria to live if I was younger, love the place.
I can now watch the footy and cricket from anywhere and I love Oberammergau.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Assuming remainers havent changed their mind in equal numbers...
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The poll's I have been looking on yougov have the remain vote about 8-10 points ahead more or less consistently for months now. The interesting thing that happend in a poll from Mar 11th is a drop of of 10 points in the leave support and 6 points in the remain support from a poll from a week previous. All of this went to not sure/don't know. So remain 40%, leave 32% and don't know 29% (extra 1% in there I know. That's a lot of don't knows.
 
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Here is how I see it going;

Tonight - vote down no deal
A50 extended.
GE called.
Labour take the commons, probably as minority.
People's vote.
Withdraw A50.
Then whip up internal support for EU change. The EU have shown there is movement and negotiation in some areas, so the targets are there. "If you can enter negotiation with someone leaving, you can do it within the family"
 
monkeybarry said:
Here is how I see it going;

Tonight - vote down no deal
A50 extended.
GE called.
Labour take the commons, probably as minority.
People's vote.
Withdraw A50.
Then whip up internal support for EU change. The EU have shown there is movement and negotiation in some areas, so the targets are there. "If you can enter negotiation with someone leaving, you can do it within the family"
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Actually, John McDonald just said Labour want to take a stab at getting a deal then taking it to the people if it isn't passed.
 
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