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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Theresa May says she wants to remind MPs of what is in the deal.

This includes the end of free movement, full reciprocal protection of the rights of EU citizens in the UK, the end of the Common Agricultural Policy and an implementation period that "gives everyone time to adjust to leaving the EU.

"All delivered by the deal," she says.
 
Rorschach said:
Unsurprising. The AG's take that the deal hasn't really changed in substance from the previous version meant that it would never get the votes.

So a vote tonight which will fail, the tomorrow's vote to rule out no deal, which will likely pass and then it's back to square one with a few weeks left.
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Its actually worse than that. Taking no deal off the table leaves us completely at the EUs mercy.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Its actually worse than that. Taking no deal off the table leaves us completely at the EUs mercy.
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My understanding of the vote tomorrow is that no deal is actually not really off the table. The vote tomorrow will decide whether the UK goes straight to no deal on the 29th, don't pass go and don't collect 200. Or in otherwords lets not fudge around with any more negotiations and just leave with a hard brexit, it's done. If the vote decides against this nuclear option then no deal could still happen on the 29th irrespective, depending on how the next few weeks play out. I am open to correction on this if I have it wrong.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Its actually worse than that. Taking no deal off the table leaves us completely at the EUs mercy.
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It also stops blind panic, billions spent on contingencies and probably job losses. At the same time the EU are not in a bubble or uninformed - they know what no deal means for the UK and how undesirable it really is. So I'm not sure it has the leverage you think it does. Imo it was a rather immature and unrealistic approach this government has taken - but whats new there?
 
Rorschach said:
My understanding of the vote tomorrow is that no deal is actually not really off the table. The vote tomorrow will decide whether the UK goes straight to no deal on the 29th, don't pass go and don't collect 200. Or in otherwords lets not fudge around with any more negotiations and just leave with a hard brexit, it's done. If the vote decides against this nuclear option then no deal could still happen on the 29th irrespective, depending on how the next few weeks play out. I am open to correction on this if I have it wrong.
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My reading of it was more "No deal isnt at all palatable so we need to prevent that from happening".

A) I actually dont think WTO terms would be the end of the world and
B) Taking that option away neuters us completely.

So I certainly hope you are right!
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
My reading of it was more "No deal isnt at all palatable so we need to prevent that from happening".

A) I actually dont think WTO terms would be the end of the world and
B) Taking that option away neuters us completely.

So I certainly hope you are right!
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I'm pretty sure no deal is the default option on the 29th of March if they don't agree on anything else in the meantime. The vote tomorrow is just a shortcut straight to no deal is the way I understand it.

Assuming they don't do that, which is likely, it is a vote for extension or we're into options land again - referendum, off the shelf deal or bizarrely May's deal will still be on the table from a EU perspective.

The mood points towards a push for an extension but the extension will be short-lived because of the upcoming European elections. Everything has to be sorted one way or the other before then, which is the end of May. "We want an extension" will not be enough though. There will have to be a plan on the table to go with it. And of course each member state has their say on the extension too and some may play hardball, so an extension is not a given. If none of these options are taken it's no deal.

So I haven't a clue which way it will go but I do have a small window into how it is playing out as I work in tax and customs, and from an economic perspective it is a bit of a disaster for the UK already. Call it project whateveryoulike but it is going to be a brick show if no deal happens.

Edit: I missed the vote for extension which happens after the vote for no deal.
 
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Rorschach said:
I'm pretty sure no deal is the default option on the 29th of March if they don't agree on anything else in the meantime. The vote tomorrow is just a shortcut straight to no deal is the way I understand it.

Assuming they don't do that, which is likely, we're into options land again - referendum, extension, off the shelf deal or bizarrely May's deal will still be on the table from a EU perspective. The mood points towards a push for an extension but the extension will be short-lived because of the upcoming European elections. Everything has to be sorted one way or the other before then, which is the end of May. "We want an extension" will not be enough though. There will have to be a plan on the table to go with it. And of course each member state has their say on the extension too and some may play hardball, so an extension is not a given. If none of these options are taken it's no deal.

So I haven't a clue which way it will go but I do have a small window into how it is playing out as I work in tax and customs, and from an economic perspective it is a bit of a disaster for the UK already. Call it project whateveryoulike but it is going to be a brick show if no deal happens.
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Not only that, any extension will have to be bought, either with further concessions or, more likely, more cash for the divorce bill.

An extension of a couple of months because we started all this 18 months in could cost billions of pounds...
 
richie_spur said:
Not only that, any extension will have to be bought, either with further concessions or, more likely, more cash for the divorce bill.

An extension of a couple of months because we started all this 18 months in could cost billions of pounds...
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Pro rata membership rather than more cash that's what I read but the headline in the mail stated EU demand more cash for extension
 
r-u-s-x said:
Pro rata membership rather than more cash that's what I read but the headline in the mail stated EU demand more cash for extension
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I thought the legal advice was that we didn't really need permission to extend on current terms? Might be my failing memory though
 
scaramanga said:
I thought the legal advice was that we didn't really need permission to extend on current terms? Might be my failing memory though
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No permission from EU? Only wiki but wording seems quite clear

The treaties cease to apply to the member state concerned on the entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, in the absence of such an agreement, two years after the member state notified the European Council of its intention to leave, although this period can be extended by unanimous agreement of the European Council
 
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