I think he’ll lose the by-election and that will be the end of his political career, which will be no bad thing imo. I don’t trust him at all. It’s always appeared to me that his main interest is Andy Burnham.
John Curtice said this week that the ‘decline’ in the Reform vote overall needs to be treated with caution as the vast majority of seats up for grabs in the council elections were in areas which are traditionally Labour, whereas in the previous election the results are being compared to this wasn’t the case.
I think he wins but I agree he's definitely a chancer, stops being an MP during the bleak opposition years then just wants to swoon back in when there's a chance to be PM. If Starmer was more popular or the Tories were still in no way he's be clamoring to come back.
I'm not sure why he's considered the savior, he's already lost 2 leadership elections and didn't seem like a master planner when he botched his takeover at the last Labour conference.