Looking at the UEFA rankings, taking a simplistic approach of saying the top 16 will be in the first two pots next year, then if we do finish top 4 we're only just going to scrape into pot 2.
Of the 17 above us, Roma are outside the CL spots in Italy (only by a point though), and now looking less likely that Man U will get CL football - that would put us 16th prior to factoring in (i) the Arse/Chelsea EL/PL permutations and (ii) whether there are league winners who get a seeding despite being lower in the rankings
https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html#/yr/2019
Of the 17 above us, Roma are outside the CL spots in Italy (only by a point though), and now looking less likely that Man U will get CL football - that would put us 16th prior to factoring in (i) the Arse/Chelsea EL/PL permutations and (ii) whether there are league winners who get a seeding despite being lower in the rankings
https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html#/yr/2019