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*** Official Betting Thread ***
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
WTF you picked out a 20/1 winner of the Oaks, what made you choose it mate, I read the previews and thought it was between about 5 so didnt bet, was it just a simple lucky guess, had a good jockey on board in Hughes ??
I had Gregorian as a £20 single bet at 7/2 so a nice profit...
Mumorn
Vic Buckingham
French Cup Final:
Evian
£10 returns £45
Quite the story really. Evian have only been around since 2007. They got about 3 promotions in 4 years and are now in Ligue 1, they finished 16th this year only 2 points off relegation and are now just 90 minutes away from European football!! They beat PSG in the quarters and smashed Lorient in the semis and now meet Bordeaux. It kicked off just now so I thought I'd jump on them, love an underdog!!
Evian
£10 returns £45
Quite the story really. Evian have only been around since 2007. They got about 3 promotions in 4 years and are now in Ligue 1, they finished 16th this year only 2 points off relegation and are now just 90 minutes away from European football!! They beat PSG in the quarters and smashed Lorient in the semis and now meet Bordeaux. It kicked off just now so I thought I'd jump on them, love an underdog!!
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
The Racing Post spotlight write up sounded promising and with Hughes on it I thought it was a good outside shout. As well as my Lucky 15, I had £5 e/w on it last night. Then today I had another £15 on it to win when I was putting a few bets on for my Grandad
Good stuff, it won very very well, just looking at the Derby now, I fancy a non-english winner
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
That was my choice too, from same trainer who won 2 years ago with Pour Moi
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
This guy is very good on punters lounge
Epsom Derby Saturday 1st June – Preview
The Stats
Looking at the last 14 years performance, price is key as the largest price over the 14 years was 7/1 however only 5 favs have won (2 were Jt fav). The irish win again last year ago made it 3 in 5 years after the prize was dominated by the English trainers. French trained winner in 2011 shows this remains a global prize.
All 14 winners had had either 1 or 2 runs that season & all but 4 had won LTO. Career runs were between a total of 3 & 7 although 11 of the 14 had between 3 & 5 runs. However 2012 winner Pour Moi & 2010 winner Workforce had only ran twice before which is uncommon.
Looking at the trial's, 8 of the winners won a recognised Derby trial, 3 Dante winners, 2 Chester Dee stakes winners & 3 Leopardstown Derby trial winners, so we must really look at those races in depth. 2009 winner Sea The stars turned out to be one of the best ever and he came from winning the 2000 Guineas as did Camelot last year, both had the staying pedigree though required for this race. In 2010, Workforce bucked the poor trend of Dante placed horses to win.
Looking at the breeding Stamina on the sire side is not essential as 4 of the 14 were bred by sires who stayed less than 10f. The others are recognised Derby pedigrees (Gallileo, Montjeu, Sadlers Wells).
The Key Trials
Dante Stakes York
Ended as a strange trial with 33/1 Libertarian winning for Mrs K Burke. However is bred by a recent Derby winner New Approach, so stamina guaranteed and does meet the other stats. Trading Leather 2nd in the race, won a Group 3 at Newmarket least season and has had 5 runs now for trainer Bolger. .
Derby Trial – Leopardstown
Battle of Marengo won this race for Aidan O’Brien and remains to be seen what it beat. Bred by Galileo, has now won 5 out 6 races.
Dee Stakes – Chester
Magician won the Dee stakes for O’brien and the horse really handled the track and the softer going that day. Impressive turn of foot in the end. 2nd that day Contributer isn’t entered.
Lingfield Derby trial
Won by Nevis, another from O’brien, Possibly needs it soft to feature here.
2000 Guineas
Dawn Approach won this easily this year and the 7/4 price tag is now down to evens as most pundits believe this one can go onto better things and prove a worthy winner.
Of the 3 trials, the Dante stakes at York had proved to be the best pointer in recent years with 2004, 2005 & 2007 winner coming from this race, it remains a true test. However, 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach may well be too good for these having romped the race this year and breeding on the sire side is ok but not on the Dam side. I think though this could be a serious horse in a weak Derby.
The main players
Dawn Approach
Has won all 7 of his races including the Dewhurst and 2000 Guineas. The last 3 wins all being Group 1 level. Won the 2000 Guineas easily this year. Should stay and the only unknown is handling the track.
Battle of Marengo
Has won 5 from 6 and a decent trial in ireland. O’Brien would be seeking at least a top 4 finish.
Ruler of the world
Won the Chester Vase in May, Quickened clear that day, remains to be seen which of the O’Brien horses is favoured.
The others
The trends show that horses have to have finished 1st or 2nd on last outing, so of the others, i would only be interested in Libertarian, Ocovango.
An interesting trend is that the last 11 winners have made thier debut at a Group 1 track, this rules out Libertarian from those i have named above.
Current betting
Dawn Approach Evs
Battle of Marengo 5/1
Ocovango 8/1
Ruler of the World 10/1
12/1 Bar
Epsom Derby Saturday 1st June – Preview
The Stats
Looking at the last 14 years performance, price is key as the largest price over the 14 years was 7/1 however only 5 favs have won (2 were Jt fav). The irish win again last year ago made it 3 in 5 years after the prize was dominated by the English trainers. French trained winner in 2011 shows this remains a global prize.
All 14 winners had had either 1 or 2 runs that season & all but 4 had won LTO. Career runs were between a total of 3 & 7 although 11 of the 14 had between 3 & 5 runs. However 2012 winner Pour Moi & 2010 winner Workforce had only ran twice before which is uncommon.
Looking at the trial's, 8 of the winners won a recognised Derby trial, 3 Dante winners, 2 Chester Dee stakes winners & 3 Leopardstown Derby trial winners, so we must really look at those races in depth. 2009 winner Sea The stars turned out to be one of the best ever and he came from winning the 2000 Guineas as did Camelot last year, both had the staying pedigree though required for this race. In 2010, Workforce bucked the poor trend of Dante placed horses to win.
Looking at the breeding Stamina on the sire side is not essential as 4 of the 14 were bred by sires who stayed less than 10f. The others are recognised Derby pedigrees (Gallileo, Montjeu, Sadlers Wells).
The Key Trials
Dante Stakes York
Ended as a strange trial with 33/1 Libertarian winning for Mrs K Burke. However is bred by a recent Derby winner New Approach, so stamina guaranteed and does meet the other stats. Trading Leather 2nd in the race, won a Group 3 at Newmarket least season and has had 5 runs now for trainer Bolger. .
Derby Trial – Leopardstown
Battle of Marengo won this race for Aidan O’Brien and remains to be seen what it beat. Bred by Galileo, has now won 5 out 6 races.
Dee Stakes – Chester
Magician won the Dee stakes for O’brien and the horse really handled the track and the softer going that day. Impressive turn of foot in the end. 2nd that day Contributer isn’t entered.
Lingfield Derby trial
Won by Nevis, another from O’brien, Possibly needs it soft to feature here.
2000 Guineas
Dawn Approach won this easily this year and the 7/4 price tag is now down to evens as most pundits believe this one can go onto better things and prove a worthy winner.
Of the 3 trials, the Dante stakes at York had proved to be the best pointer in recent years with 2004, 2005 & 2007 winner coming from this race, it remains a true test. However, 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach may well be too good for these having romped the race this year and breeding on the sire side is ok but not on the Dam side. I think though this could be a serious horse in a weak Derby.
The main players
Dawn Approach
Has won all 7 of his races including the Dewhurst and 2000 Guineas. The last 3 wins all being Group 1 level. Won the 2000 Guineas easily this year. Should stay and the only unknown is handling the track.
Battle of Marengo
Has won 5 from 6 and a decent trial in ireland. O’Brien would be seeking at least a top 4 finish.
Ruler of the world
Won the Chester Vase in May, Quickened clear that day, remains to be seen which of the O’Brien horses is favoured.
The others
The trends show that horses have to have finished 1st or 2nd on last outing, so of the others, i would only be interested in Libertarian, Ocovango.
An interesting trend is that the last 11 winners have made thier debut at a Group 1 track, this rules out Libertarian from those i have named above.
Current betting
Dawn Approach Evs
Battle of Marengo 5/1
Ocovango 8/1
Ruler of the World 10/1
12/1 Bar
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Got good previous in the race, its a 20 runner 5f sprint though so all horses need a bit of luck in running
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Main Derby bet is Battle of Marengo 6/1, secondary choice is Ocovango
El Guepardo
Rafael Van Der Vaart
Won £180 on the Euromillions last night; 4 numbers & 1 Lucky Star. I had staked £10, buying 5 tickets.
So used to getting the emails telling me that I have won, only to find that the win was minimal, that it's a bonus to win an amount like that!
So used to getting the emails telling me that I have won, only to find that the win was minimal, that it's a bonus to win an amount like that!
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Been some great racing at Epsom so far, St Nicks Abbey won easily and to think Frankel beat this horse without even trying, frightening how good that horse was..
Brilliant ride from Ryan Moore on Duke of Firenze in the Dash, real eye of a needle ride, bookies getting walloped so far with 3 favs out of 4 winning
Brilliant ride from Ryan Moore on Duke of Firenze in the Dash, real eye of a needle ride, bookies getting walloped so far with 3 favs out of 4 winning