General Transfer Rumour Discussion Thread

[alekaras]

Good points about whether Berahino is a Poch target or not. And I'll add one more thing: everyone says he'll hit the ground running and slot in seamlessly and be productive. But that's not a shoo in either. Torres is a great example of a sure-fire signing gone bad.

If the scouting team is looking at both and they consider them to be equivalent, both in terms of ability and likely success in Poch's system, then the cheaper option will win out. Quite frankly, I don't care which one this turns out to be, as long as it's a solid player that will improve our squad.

 

[DubaiSpur]

Quite frankly, I don't care which one this turns out to be, as long as it's a solid player that will improve our squad.

Was Campbell a 'solid option' that improved our squad? Was Nelsen? Was Saha? Was Stambouli?

Generally, you get what you pay for. You pay for Stambouli, you get Stambouli. You pay for Schneiderlin, you get Schneiderlin: and those players exist on entirely different planes when it comes to their attributes and suitability for Poch's system. I agree that players like Berahino aren't guaranteed to have good careers at Spurs, but I think they (generally) come with a better chance of integrating into the side than cheaper options.

 

[Gazzasrightboot]

Was Campbell a 'solid option' that improved our squad? Was Nelsen? Was Saha? Was Stambouli?

Generally, you get what you pay for. You pay for Stambouli, you get Stambouli. You pay for Schneiderlin, you get Schneiderlin: and those players exist on entirely different planes when it comes to their attributes and suitability for Poch's system. I agree that players like Berahino aren't guaranteed to have good careers at Spurs, but I think they (generally) come with a better chance of integrating into the side than cheaper options.

That is true, but you buy a Mane you get a Mane. You buy an Ajaz Suarez, you get a Suarez. You buy a Bony, you get a Bony. For every "bargain" that is bought abroad that doesn't quite work out, there is another that is bought that works out fantastically. You do not need to buy at sky high prices to guarantee quality. Torres, Carrol, and Soldado to name but a few. I don't think there are any generalisms that can be made in reality on transfers. Good scouting is the key.

 

[DubaiSpur]

I posted the list of the biggest transfers of all time (Top 100, I believe) here a while back, and asked people to judge whether the majority of those transfers had been failures or successes: I think the consensus was a 2 to 1 split in favour of successes over failures, even allowing for the obvious difficulty of pigeon-holing players into one of those two categories.

(Here it is, btw, if you want to have a gander at it yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_association_football_transfers )

Again, you generally end up getting what you pay for. And again, I agree that expensive players aren't always the best options: there is absolutely a case to be made for good scouting making up for deficiencies in the club's ability to recruit players. However, where I am highly suspicious of this system is when it comes to clubs like ours, where the cheaper option isn't always 'considered to be equivalent' to the more expensive one in terms of talent, but is bought anyway because hey, he's cheap and there's large profits that need to be made.

 

[mudshark]

Become 'bland' since Harry and then Sherwood left the club in terms of rumours but that is probably just coincidence.

If you ask me, it's about as coincidental as the fact there's no Mrs Bergoglio in the Apostolic Palace

 

[Gazzasrightboot]

I posted the list of the biggest transfers of all time (Top 100, I believe) here a while back, and asked people to judge whether the majority of those transfers had been failures or successes: I think the consensus was a 2 to 1 split in favour of successes over failures, even allowing for the obvious difficulty of pigeon-holing players into one of those two categories.

(Here it is, btw, if you want to have a gander at it yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_association_football_transfers )

Again, you generally end up getting what you pay for. And again, I agree that expensive players aren't always the best options: there is absolutely a case to be made for good scouting making up for deficiencies in the club's ability to recruit players. However, where I am highly suspicious of this system is when it comes to clubs like ours, where the cheaper option isn't always 'considered to be equivalent' to the more expensive one in terms of talent, but is bought anyway because hey, he's cheap and there's large profits that need to be made.

I understand that. But we do not operate in that market. The list that you have posted are pretty much the top players in the world that have been transferred so it stands to reason that they would be expensive. Gareth Bale would only have been allowed to leave for a ridiculous fee. Lamela aside, we don't shop there because we cannot. We have to buy those very same players before they get there with effective scouting. Inevitably we will make some mistakes as finding a bargain is not easy, but it is not impossible. With regards to Schneiderlin, who really knows the reason as to why we didn't sign him last season. Our relations with Southampton were not great, but also we do also have a hard bargainer. That same negotiator bought Modric, Berbatov, Bale and Van der Vaart so it's not as if we have missed out on targets completely because of that style.

 

[DubaiSpur]

I understand that. But we do not operate in that market. The list that you have posted are pretty much the top players in the world that have been transferred so it stands to reason that they would be expensive. Gareth Bale would only have been allowed to leave for a ridiculous fee. Lamela aside, we don't shop there because we cannot. We have to buy those very same players before they get there with effective scouting. Inevitably we will make some mistakes as finding a bargain is not easy, but it is not impossible. With regards to Schneiderlin, who really knows the reason as to why we didn't sign him last season. Our relations with Southampton were not great, but also we do also have a hard bargainer. That same negotiator bought Modric, Berbatov, Bale and Van der Vaart so it's not as if we have missed out on targets completely because of that style.

Again, I don't disagree with most of what you say: we don't shop in that market, absolutely. I only used that list to illustrate that, generally, more expensive players will have a higher success rate than less expensive ones. If I could cement that fact by finding a table of free transfers/nominal fees and putting that out there for discussion(with the intention of proving that less expensive players have higher failure rates), I would: unfortunately, I don't even think that's possible to do. Still, the point I was making was that the prices that the market sets are (generally, allowing for significant variation) the right ones: not that we should shop exclusively in that top 100 bracket.

Where I feel we routinely fail as a club is in occasionally accepting extraneous values, and in pushing the boat past the cheaper option to the more expensive buy at crucial times. By extraneous values, I mean the intrinsic worth a player has to our manager, not necessarily to either our chairman or our scouting team: for example, I don't think there was any doubt about Schneiderlin being Poch's primary target last summer (along with Rodriguez), and despite that the club decided to forgo bidding for him and gave Poch Stambouli instead. Stambouli (objectively) isn't a bad player: he may even really be the low-cost alternative to Schneiderlin that the club probably thought he was when getting him in. But Poch never played him, rarely used him in any capacity and disinterestedly sold him on just a year after his arrival. Think of the difference Schneiderlin would have made to our 14/15 season, instead of the low-cost alternative that Poch ended up getting and hardly using because his valuation of said low-cost option didn't match his valuation of his primary target. Think of the difference Villa, Hulk or Moutinho could have made to AVB's 12-13 and 13-14 seasons. Think of the difference a real defender and striker (worth actual transfer fees) would have made to our (then) title-chasing side in January 2012, instead of Ryan Nelsen and Louis Saha. Think of the difference Eto'o and Villa could have made in 2008-2009, instead of Pav and Fraizer Campbell.These players were all passed over in favour of the cheaper options, and we have suffered for it, imo. And it isn't like these players are in the Top 100 list, beyond our reach: in all these cases, these players were ones eminently within our ability to acquire them at the time, but were passed over in favour of the cheap, value signings that ended up costing Ramos, Harry and AVB their jobs. They all came out afterwards and criticized this habit of the club: and, looking back, they were all absolutely right, even if we scoffed at their individual claims when they made them.

 

[indianspur]

I think in Poch Levy has a manager who is sympathetic to our limited resources at the current time and is a manager who is prepared to happily blood the youngsters and also buy cleverly and cheaply in the market.

However, im sure even Poch would like to make one or two key signings, players who he really feels will make a difference and who he would like the club to stretch themselves a little to purchase them. Schneiderlin was one last summer, this summer we dont know who it may be but lets go along with Berahino. Its like Dubai says above

in pushing the boat past the cheaper option to the more expensive buy at crucial times.

the intrinsic worth a player has to our manager, not necessarily to either our chairman or our scouting team

I think we could do well with this approach

 

[billyiddo]

I don't think we can go along with anything based on rumours to be quite honest - with Schneiderlin we had the quotes from Sotons chairman saying we had bid, we have nothing to go on for Berahino being a target other than media reports and itk ie nothing concrete - personally I'd have him if it was down to me but who knows the thinking of those at the club? Could be that Yarmalenko has now become a possibility and we're now pursuing that ...

My way of thinking is we probably have tentative discussions throughout the window/season with clubs about potential signings - some of those will get leaked and become news stories, some remain concealed - the ones which get leaked early become our primary targets for those easily lead.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Surely you're joking?

You're more aware than most that we don't have the deepest pockets. The club has to function as one. Levy may have final say, but they will work on transfers together. So a list of targets will be drawn up. First, second choice etc. and the club will try and bring each target in. Its childish to say 'Daddy' is not getting Poch his favorite toy. If a CL team are in for a player, if the player doesn't want to sign, or is not decent value for the club etc the transfer won't happen.

I'm sure there is some flexibility too as players availability changes. Things are not the black and white picture fans paint of Levy not giving Poch his players.

 

[THFC39]

The biggest issue with this transfer window is quite simple: we have seemingly passed on numerous players we could've afforded and who ended up at clubs with less financial clout and arguably prestige than we have. Just look at the list of players who went for fairly modest prices (by today's standards) that would've been contenders for starting XI places this Saturday against United for us: Cabaye, Clasie, Imbula, Suarez, Ayew, Payet, Wijnaldum, Konoplyanka, and soon, Aranguiz. There's some serious quality in that mix of players (and many who would fit the criteria of Pochettino's high press system), all went for less than 16 million pounds of transfer fees, and they all ended up at clubs with wage bills significantly smaller than ours. So why did we pass on all of them? I have a hard time imagining we had an interest in any of them and they just didn't want to move to us. Alternatively, it seems that there was an undercurrent among some fans that perhaps we had better players lined up, which struck me as wishful thinking. We are working within the confines of a transfer policy where you can't spend more than you bring in via sales, and even if you're sitting on a 25 million pound surplus, it's unlikely that Levy will spend that on August 31st on a single player.

So that brings us to the present. Here's what people have to understand about shopping late in the 2015 transfer window. The EPL television deal has changed everything for teams in the league. West Brom will not be bullied into selling Berahino on Levy's financial terms, as it makes no sense when they could keep him, potentially assure being in the top flight next season, and guarantee a payday of 100+ million pounds in television revenue. The same thing goes for Everton and McCarthy. These clubs don't need to sell these players unless you make it worth their while to a degree that the financial windfall would serve as a hedge against any performance related revenue dip they'd suffer as a result.

To some degree, we'll also have issues buying from the continent, as teams abroad know English clubs are swimming in cash. This is made even more difficult by the fact that we are seemingly interested in some very important players at clubs that are actually more prestigious than us (Dortmund) or are in the Champions League (Leverkusen and Lyon). These teams have their own ambitions, and again, the only way they'd part with important players in their squads is if you compensated them tremendously. Does anyone seriously think we'll pay 25+ million pounds for Kramer or Bender in the latter part of August? How would Leverkusen and Dortmund go about spending that money so late in the window? That's the issue with trying to buy genuine quality in late August. It's really hard, unless the player has only 1 year on his contract left and will take active steps to move to your club, the selling club has major financial woes, or the player has a release clause (see Fazio last season).

Unless Levy is seriously ready to engage in a net spend that involves spending above and beyond what we've been told is our maximum transfer outlay, then what we'll see is likely a signing or two not too dissimilar to Stambouli and Fazio. Serviceable players from much smaller clubs who you hope can add squad depth and improve over time, but will struggle to catch up with the rest of the squad having missed out on training with them all summer. We might be able to sign someone like Timo Werner, but he's not ready to come in and be a major force for you yet, as he isn't the finished article, and will take a lot of time to settle (1 goal and 0 assists in his last 24 games at Stuttgart).

This is the strongest collection of talent in Premier League history in my opinion. Mid-table clubs are spending the television revenue from the television deals of 2013-2016 and are not afraid to spend even more on the basis of an extra 50 million pounds of TV revenue to come after next season. As currently constituted, our squad is vulernable to results suffering as a result of a squad that lacks major experience and depth that can cope with playing a high pressing style over the course of 4 competitions. We are even more vulnerable to an injury crisis, which can decimate even highly talented teams. Go look at Dortmund last season as an example. Better squad than us on paper with an elite manager, but with injuries, loss of form, and players not developing, they had a disastrous domestic campaign.

 

[DubaiSpur]

You're more aware than most that we don't have the deepest pockets. The club has to function as one. Levy may have final say, but they will work on transfers as one. So a list of targets will be drawn up. First, second choice etc. and the club will try and bring each target it. Its childish to say 'Daddy' is not getting Poch his favorite toy. If a CL team are in for a player, if the player doesn't want to sign, or is not decent value for the club etc the transfer won't happen.

I'm sure their is some flexibility too as players availability changes. Things are not the black and white picture fans paint of Levy not giving Poch his players.

That is where we balls up, imo. I get the feeling that our limits on what players we can buy aren't quite as flexible as you're suggesting they are, especially when the club's valuation of a player routinely seems to undercut even the regular market prices, never mind what our manager might (might) want us to pay for the guy.

And we generally don't do any first-team business in January windows. That's why I asked if he was joking: the last first-team players we brought in during the January window were Saha and Nelsen, and the last one we paid a fee for was Pienaar the year before that in January 2011. If we end the window with a large profit, it is most definitely not going to be spent in January, that's all.

 

[Storky]

That is where we balls up, imo. I get the feeling that our limits on what players we can buy aren't quite as flexible as you're suggesting they are, especially when the club's valuation of a player routinely seems to undercut even the regular market prices, never mind what our manager might (might) want us to pay for the guy.

And we generally don't do any first-team business in January windows. That's why I asked if he was joking: the last first-team players we brought in during the January window were Saha and Nelsen, and the last one we paid a fee for was Pienaar the year before that in January 2011. If we end the window with a large profit, it is most definitely not going to be spent in January, that's all.

Shouldn't you be at the Jays game?? It's a beauty of an afternoon!!

 

[SpurMeUp]

Essentially we're frustrated as we haven't strengthen in attack. Defense was our Achilles heel last season and to be fair we went out and did our defensive business early, did we not? But I feel the frustration too. Eriksen and Kane must have accounted for a majority of our points last season, in terms of goals scored. Throw in Chadli and we're dependent on 3 players in attack. Loss of form, tiredness, injury to any of them and we're weak, on paper. Lamela may come through, Townsend too at a stretch, but we need some extra spark and options.

The club know this. We know this. We have to be patient. On the whole the club seem to make the right decisions with transfers.

 

[parklane1]

I don't think we can go along with anything based on rumours to be quite honest - with Schneiderlin we had the quotes from Sotons chairman saying we had bid, we have nothing to go on for Berahino being a target other than media reports and itk ie nothing concrete - personally I'd have him if it was down to me but who knows the thinking of those at the club? Could be that Yarmalenko has now become a possibility and we're now pursuing that ...

My way of thinking is we probably have tentative discussions throughout the window/season with clubs about potential signings - some of those will get leaked and become news stories, some remain concealed - the ones which get leaked early become our primary targets for those easily lead.

Bang on, its stupid to suggest or believe otherwise as it just does not make sense. It amazes me that there are some fans who STILL believe in rumours ( it must be against their better judgement to believe in rumours without proof), then go on when these rumours are shown to be just that ( rumours) to slag of Levy and the club.

 

[parklane1]

who would you like us to sign from the players out there atm to fit in the CF/WF role? Of course Ronaldo,Neymar, Suarez and Messi are currently slightly out of our reach. But from the rest and who would fit in with our structure at Spurs and with what you see Poch likes his players to offer?

That never answered the question I asked, however I am not saying that I do not want Berahino . What gets me is there is no definite proof that Poch wants him but they seems to be suggestions by some that if he does not sign then Levy must be to blame.That sounds a bit like a agenda against Levy to me.

 

[DubaiSpur]

Shouldn't you be at the Jays game?? It's a beauty of an afternoon!!

I know, don't remind me. Unfortunately, I'm in India at the moment, alternately watching TFC lose embarassingly to New England on a five-pixel stream and watching my FB feed fill up with posts about the brilliant weather back home. Thankfully it's apparently going to be overcast for the next two days, so my long-distance jealousy will hopefully abate shortly.

 

[NWND]

The biggest issue with this transfer window is quite simple: we have seemingly passed on numerous players we could've afforded and who ended up at clubs with less financial clout and arguably prestige than we have. Just look at the list of players who went for fairly modest prices (by today's standards) that would've been contenders for starting XI places this Saturday against United for us: Cabaye, Clasie, Imbula, Suarez, Ayew, Payet, Wijnaldum, Konoplyanka, and soon, Aranguiz. There's some serious quality in that mix of players (and many who would fit the criteria of Pochettino's high press system), all went for less than 16 million pounds of transfer fees, and they all ended up at clubs with wage bills significantly smaller than ours. So why did we pass on all of them? I have a hard time imagining we had an interest in any of them and they just didn't want to move to us. Alternatively, it seems that there was an undercurrent among some fans that perhaps we had better players lined up, which struck me as wishful thinking. We are working within the confines of a transfer policy where you can't spend more than you bring in via sales, and even if you're sitting on a 25 million pound surplus, it's unlikely that Levy will spend that on August 31st on a single player.

So that brings us to the present. Here's what people have to understand about shopping late in the 2015 transfer window. The EPL television deal has changed everything for teams in the league. West Brom will not be bullied into selling Berahino on Levy's financial terms, as it makes no sense when they could keep him, potentially assure being in the top flight next season, and guarantee a payday of 100+ million pounds in television revenue. The same thing goes for Everton and McCarthy. These clubs don't need to sell these players unless you make it worth their while to a degree that the financial windfall would serve as a hedge against any performance related revenue dip they'd suffer as a result.

To some degree, we'll also have issues buying from the continent, as teams abroad know English clubs are swimming in cash. This is made even more difficult by the fact that we are seemingly interested in some very important players at clubs that are actually more prestigious than us (Dortmund) or are in the Champions League (Leverkusen and Lyon). These teams have their own ambitions, and again, the only way they'd part with important players in their squads is if you compensated them tremendously. Does anyone seriously think we'll pay 25+ million pounds for Kramer or Bender in the latter part of August? How would Leverkusen and Dortmund go about spending that money so late in the window? That's the issue with trying to buy genuine quality in late August. It's really hard, unless the player has only 1 year on his contract left and will take active steps to move to your club, the selling club has major financial woes, or the player has a release clause (see Fazio last season).

Unless Levy is seriously ready to engage in a net spend that involves spending above and beyond what we've been told is our maximum transfer outlay, then what we'll see is likely a signing or two not too dissimilar to Stambouli and Fazio. Serviceable players from much smaller clubs who you hope can add squad depth and improve over time, but will struggle to catch up with the rest of the squad having missed out on training with them all summer. We might be able to sign someone like Timo Werner, but he's not ready to come in and be a major force for you yet, as he isn't the finished article, and will take a lot of time to settle (1 goal and 0 assists in his last 24 games at Stuttgart).

This is the strongest collection of talent in Premier League history in my opinion. Mid-table clubs are spending the television revenue from the television deals of 2013-2016 and are not afraid to spend even more on the basis of an extra 50 million pounds of TV revenue to come after next season. As currently constituted, our squad is vulernable to results suffering as a result of a squad that lacks major experience and depth that can cope with playing a high pressing style over the course of 4 competitions. We are even more vulnerable to an injury crisis, which can decimate even highly talented teams. Go look at Dortmund last season as an example. Better squad than us on paper with an elite manager, but with injuries, loss of form, and players not developing, they had a disastrous domestic campaign.

I doubt any of those players would have improved us. They mostly play in positions we didn't need to strengthen in. Your entire post seemed to be a bit of a keeping up with the Joneses about it. In 2013, all the clubs were probably jealous of our transfer activity. But as it turned out, signing a tonne of players don't make up for losing a genuinely world-class one.

We've kept all of our best players, so to actually improve the squad, is quite difficult. We finished 5th last season so we have an extremely talented squad.

You just seem to want to sign these players, just because they're decent highlights players who have a big reputation and are good to watch. Payet for example, what is the big fascination with this guy? At the end of the day he is a journeyman. I get the appeal, he's a flair player like Di Canio. But like Di Canio, he is great to watch, will be a fan favourite, but he'll never play for a top club. Why? Because he isn't good enough. He's not as good as Eriksen, so why would we even be interested in him? The same thing goes for most on that list. The reason they've moved to 'less fashionable and poorer clubs', is a lot to do with the fact that nobody decent was interested.

 

[DubaiSpur]

We are still looking for a DM. Apparently a good one, too. How does that fit into the idea that we're happy to trust in Bentaleb when it comes to the DM position? I certainly don't see Bentaleb as a holding player, anyway (we've had that conversation as well): but the very fact that we're still looking for a DM after shifting bargain-bin Stambo is indicative of our continuing desire to see a quality midfielder step into that DM position. Bentaleb will become one in time (albeit a box-to-box midfielder more than a 'pure' DM, imo) , but given our defensive frailties, we need one now. We also needed one last summer. We went for one, made an unbelievably derisory bid to start the process off, and then ran away when it was rejected, consoling ourselves with a cheap player Poch clearly didn't want in any capacity. Suffice it to say, I don't consider that a sensible sequence of events at all. And I'm somewhat surprised that you still seem to believe that Poch wanted anything to do with Stambo.

 

[DubaiSpur]

Cabaye, Clasie, Imbula, Suarez, Ayew, Konoplyanka...all either DMs or left-wingers, positions we definitely need to strengthen in. I think you've done the man an injustice, NWND.