southstand1882
Mitchell Thomas
Seriously...if Argentina do invade, I hope we give them a fudging good hiding
cheeky c*unts
cheeky c*unts
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Falklands
- Thread starter southstand1882
- Start date
southstand1882
Mitchell Thomas
Argentina to invade Falklands after 30th anniversary furore dies down, commander warns
Argentina is likely to reinvade the Falklands once Britain drops its guard after the furore over the 30th anniversary events dies down, the former commander of British land forces has said.
In one of the starkest warnings over the islands’ future sovereignty Major Gen Julian Thompson said once the reinforced garrison and naval presence disappears at the end of this year Buenos Aires will look to repeat its 1982 action.
“The Argentines could invade and seize the Falkland Islands again,” he said in a speech to the Royal United Services Institute, the respected military think tank.
The former Royal Marine disclosed that after the British Government was “alerted” by the Argentina president Cristina Kirchner “stoking the sovereignty fires” it discretely reinforced the Falklands garrison and naval presence.
This would make an invasion “highly unlikely” this year but “in a few years time however, when the fuss has died down, and the UK’s guard is lowered, an Argentine coup de main operation to take the airfield is perfectly attainable”.
With at least four RAF Typhoons stationed at Stanley airfield alongside 1,200 troops, equipped with radar, surface-to-air missiles and the Navy’s latest Type 45 destroyer in the area, a conventional attack would be difficult.
But military analysts have suggested that a lighting Argentine special forces raid could seize the airfield with just 200 troops hiding in a civilian aircraft.
“With no airfield, reinforcing the islands by air would be impossible, as would any form of air-lifted attempt at recovering them. The only way to take them back would be an amphibious assault as in 1982,” Major Gen Thompson said.
While today’s Royal Marines and Parachute Regiment, the key units used in the war, were far better trained, battle-hardened and equipped than 30 years ago the “problem would be getting them there”.
“Once in the Falklands, they would have even less trouble defeating an Argentine invader, than we did in 1982,” he said.
While Britain could still “cobble together” a task force to carry a phalanx of up to 5,000 troops the “killer” point was that without an aircraft carrier neither the fleet nor the landing force would have air cover, the general said. This would make it extremely vulnerable to the Argentine air force “notwithstanding its poor quality”.
The nearest airbase at Ascension Island would not be able to provide air cover as it was 4,000 miles away.
The Navy sent 112 warships, submarines and freighters in the 1982 task force and the campaign would have been lost without its power.
“Those fighting on land administered the coup de grace, but the conditions enabling them to do so were shaped by sea power at considerable cost not only in ships, but also in lives; of 253 British servicemen killed, 173 (68 per cent) were lost at sea,” the general said.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “Unlike in 1982, the Ministry of Defence has a well-defended airfield in the Falklands with ground-based air defences, and continues to have the ability to reinforce by air and sea. People should be reassured by the contingencies that we now have in place compared to 30 years ago.
"That said, there is absolutely no evidence of any current credible military threat to the Falkland Islands.”
Argentina is likely to reinvade the Falklands once Britain drops its guard after the furore over the 30th anniversary events dies down, the former commander of British land forces has said.
In one of the starkest warnings over the islands’ future sovereignty Major Gen Julian Thompson said once the reinforced garrison and naval presence disappears at the end of this year Buenos Aires will look to repeat its 1982 action.
“The Argentines could invade and seize the Falkland Islands again,” he said in a speech to the Royal United Services Institute, the respected military think tank.
The former Royal Marine disclosed that after the British Government was “alerted” by the Argentina president Cristina Kirchner “stoking the sovereignty fires” it discretely reinforced the Falklands garrison and naval presence.
This would make an invasion “highly unlikely” this year but “in a few years time however, when the fuss has died down, and the UK’s guard is lowered, an Argentine coup de main operation to take the airfield is perfectly attainable”.
With at least four RAF Typhoons stationed at Stanley airfield alongside 1,200 troops, equipped with radar, surface-to-air missiles and the Navy’s latest Type 45 destroyer in the area, a conventional attack would be difficult.
But military analysts have suggested that a lighting Argentine special forces raid could seize the airfield with just 200 troops hiding in a civilian aircraft.
“With no airfield, reinforcing the islands by air would be impossible, as would any form of air-lifted attempt at recovering them. The only way to take them back would be an amphibious assault as in 1982,” Major Gen Thompson said.
While today’s Royal Marines and Parachute Regiment, the key units used in the war, were far better trained, battle-hardened and equipped than 30 years ago the “problem would be getting them there”.
“Once in the Falklands, they would have even less trouble defeating an Argentine invader, than we did in 1982,” he said.
While Britain could still “cobble together” a task force to carry a phalanx of up to 5,000 troops the “killer” point was that without an aircraft carrier neither the fleet nor the landing force would have air cover, the general said. This would make it extremely vulnerable to the Argentine air force “notwithstanding its poor quality”.
The nearest airbase at Ascension Island would not be able to provide air cover as it was 4,000 miles away.
The Navy sent 112 warships, submarines and freighters in the 1982 task force and the campaign would have been lost without its power.
“Those fighting on land administered the coup de grace, but the conditions enabling them to do so were shaped by sea power at considerable cost not only in ships, but also in lives; of 253 British servicemen killed, 173 (68 per cent) were lost at sea,” the general said.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “Unlike in 1982, the Ministry of Defence has a well-defended airfield in the Falklands with ground-based air defences, and continues to have the ability to reinforce by air and sea. People should be reassured by the contingencies that we now have in place compared to 30 years ago.
"That said, there is absolutely no evidence of any current credible military threat to the Falkland Islands.”
mick cooper
Neil Sullivan
they got their arses kicked when they invaded under a military dictatorship
what politician is going to try to re-enact that little fiasco?
what politician is going to try to re-enact that little fiasco?
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Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
People in the UK need to calm the fudge down about the Falklands. Since the last war, the armed forces here have been continuously upgrading technologies and hardware while the Argentinian armed forced have effectively stood still.
They won't be stupid enough to invade and if they do, they'll get trounced. But they won't, because they're not macaronic buffoons.
Seriously, both sides need to cut out the jingoistic crap about a brick island with about 4 inhabitants. Come to some kind of agreement with regards to the future oil (because that is why they've brought this all up again) and let self-determination decide who the people want to be ruled by. Seeing as they almost unanimously want to remain British, that is what they shall remain. Its boring.
What a ridiculous situation, when the descendants of Italian and Spanish colonialists attempt to wrest control of an island which is inhabited by the descendants of British colonialists and are then subsequently accused of colonialism by the PM of the country which possessed the world's largest ever empire and which still maintains some colonies.
They won't be stupid enough to invade and if they do, they'll get trounced. But they won't, because they're not macaronic buffoons.
Seriously, both sides need to cut out the jingoistic crap about a brick island with about 4 inhabitants. Come to some kind of agreement with regards to the future oil (because that is why they've brought this all up again) and let self-determination decide who the people want to be ruled by. Seeing as they almost unanimously want to remain British, that is what they shall remain. Its boring.
What a ridiculous situation, when the descendants of Italian and Spanish colonialists attempt to wrest control of an island which is inhabited by the descendants of British colonialists and are then subsequently accused of colonialism by the PM of the country which possessed the world's largest ever empire and which still maintains some colonies.
NewYorkSpurs
Steven Caulker
Argentina, 30 Years On, Pushes on Falklands
Despite Demands to Recover Islands From Britain, Its Forces Are Drained
By MATT MOFFETT
BUENOS AIRESÔÇöPresident Cristina Kirchner has vociferously pressed to reclaim the Falkland Islands, after Argentina failed to do so in a war for the isolated archipelago that began 30 years ago Monday.
But there is little risk the country will mount another surprise attack: These days, its ragtag military can hardly put on a decent parade.
During Argentina's bicentennial celebration in 2010, the defense ministry said it didn't put the country's antiquated tanks on the street because it was trying to "demilitarize" the parade.
Thirty years ago the U.K. went to war against Argentina over the Falkland Islands but according to newly released documents from the Reagan Library, the U.S. almost took sides against the U.K. WSJ's Cassell Bryan-Low reports on the anniversary. Photo: AP
Argentinian veterans mark 30th anniversary of the Falklands war at a ceremony in Ushuaia from where the invasion was launched. (Video: Reuters/Photo: Getty Images)
But Congressman Julio C?®sar Mart?¡nez, who was president of the legislature's Defense Commission that year, said the real reason was that organizers feared the rickety tanks would break down on the parade route.
What is more, there were no air force flyovers because 15 of its planes have crashed over the past 11 years because of age and lack of maintenance, he added. Many planes are "only fit to teach pilots how to be kamikazes," Mr. Mart?¡nez said.
Neither the Argentine Defense Ministry nor the Kirchner administration responded to several requests for comment.
Even as she talks tough about the Falklands, the leftist Mrs. Kirchner has been starving the 60,000-member Argentine armed forces of funds as part of a strategy to expunge Argentine militarism and quash any possibility of another dictatorship like the one that killed thousands of Argentines in the 1970s and 1980s. That regime also invaded the Falklands in 1982, sparking a brief war with the U.K that Argentina lost.
In a recent paper, Argentine academic Carlos Escud?® described Mrs. Kirchner's strategy as "one of the most radical pacifist experiments of all time."
Argentina's military spending, which had been about 3% of GDP at the time of the Falklands War, has fallen steadily to 0.9% of GDP by 2010, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. Today, even as Mrs. Kirchner has elevated overall public spending to historic highs, Argentina's military budget is at a record low both as a percentage of GDP and of the total budget, said political scientist Rosendo Fraga.
Alfredo Dato, a pro-government congressman who recently took over as chairman of the Defense Commission, said in an interview that Mrs. Kirchner's defense policy and her punishment of the human-rights abuses committed by the former military has widespread support from Argentines.
On Monday, Ms. Kirchner will visit the southernmost Argentine city of Ushuaia to lead rallies nationwide that honor Falklands War veterans and likely further press her country's claim.
Few lament the demise of the brutal dictatorship. But some defense hawks say Mrs. Kirchner has taken pacifism too far, noting that Argentina's northern border with Paraguay and Brazil is populated by drug traffickers, smugglers and arms dealers.
In addition, many Latin American countries have taken advantage of booming commodity prices to strengthen their defense, said Alejandro Corbacho, a specialist in defense at the Center for Macroeconomic Studies in Buenos Aires. Chile, Argentina's neighbor and longtime rival, has an armed force that is nearly 1.5 times larger than Argentina's in a country with only one-third the population. Chile spent 3.5% of GDP on defense in 2009, according to the Stockholm Institute.
Mrs. Kirchner's benign neglect of the military contrasts with her fierce diplomatic push for the islands, many analysts say. She has initiated a boycott of British goods in Argentina, called for neighboring Latin American countries to deny harbor to ships coming from the islands and threatened to sue companies involved in drilling for oil and gas off the archipelago's shore. On the stump, she has railed against English "colonialism" and "militarism."
While Mr. Mart?¡nez doesn't back another war for the Falklands, he said building up Argentina's military could buttress the country's diplomatic effort by forcing the U.K. to respond, making the islands a greater financial and political burden for Britain. "England ended up returning Hong Kong to China because China is China," Mr. Mart?¡nez added.
But other analysts point to risks that Mrs. Kirchner's swaggering Falklands posture could provoke an incident that Argentina might not be able to back up militarily.
In December, a brief standoff ensued when an Argentine coast guard cutter, patrolling the River Plate between Argentina and Uruguay, started shadowing a Spanish fishing boat, which had a permit to fish in the Falklands, Uruguayan naval officials told the local press. The Kirchner government has accused Spanish fishing boats of fishing illegally in Falkland waters Argentina claims as its own. A Uruguayan military reconnaissance plane conducted a flyover to monitor the situation. After a tense period, the fishing boat shucked the Argentine pursuer and sailed off into international waters. "We have capacity for an incident, not for a war," said Mr. Fraga.
One hundred years ago, Argentina had the largest army in Latin America, Mr. Corbacho said. Argentina was riven by a succession of military coups throughout much of the past century, with the most brutal junta seizing power in 1976. Fighting leftist guerrilla groups and ruthlessly repressing all opponents, the junta "disappeared" and murdered at least 10,000 Argentines. Amid public discontent, the government in 1982 seized the Falklands in a bid to win public support. But British leader Margaret Thatcher sent a force across the Atlantic to take back the islandsÔÇöin a 74-day conflict in which more than 900 people diedÔÇödealing Argentina a humiliating defeat.
[ARGARMY]
These days, about 80% to 90% of the defense budget is absorbed by salaries and pensions, analysts say. Tthe Kirchner government has made only limited defense investmentsÔÇörenationalizing an arms factory and ramping up a project to build nuclear powered submarines.
About half of the respondents to a Defense Ministry poll in 2008 said they had been considering leaving the service and many had taken second jobs to supplement their meager paychecks.
Voting data suggests Mrs. Kirchner is unpopular in the military, Mr. Fraga said. In voting in the 2011 presidential election in the Argentine military base in Antarctica, where around 100 armed forces members are stationed, Mrs. Kirchner got only 13% of the vote, he said, about one quarter of the support she got at a national level.
Despite Demands to Recover Islands From Britain, Its Forces Are Drained
By MATT MOFFETT
BUENOS AIRESÔÇöPresident Cristina Kirchner has vociferously pressed to reclaim the Falkland Islands, after Argentina failed to do so in a war for the isolated archipelago that began 30 years ago Monday.
But there is little risk the country will mount another surprise attack: These days, its ragtag military can hardly put on a decent parade.
During Argentina's bicentennial celebration in 2010, the defense ministry said it didn't put the country's antiquated tanks on the street because it was trying to "demilitarize" the parade.
Thirty years ago the U.K. went to war against Argentina over the Falkland Islands but according to newly released documents from the Reagan Library, the U.S. almost took sides against the U.K. WSJ's Cassell Bryan-Low reports on the anniversary. Photo: AP
Argentinian veterans mark 30th anniversary of the Falklands war at a ceremony in Ushuaia from where the invasion was launched. (Video: Reuters/Photo: Getty Images)
But Congressman Julio C?®sar Mart?¡nez, who was president of the legislature's Defense Commission that year, said the real reason was that organizers feared the rickety tanks would break down on the parade route.
What is more, there were no air force flyovers because 15 of its planes have crashed over the past 11 years because of age and lack of maintenance, he added. Many planes are "only fit to teach pilots how to be kamikazes," Mr. Mart?¡nez said.
Neither the Argentine Defense Ministry nor the Kirchner administration responded to several requests for comment.
Even as she talks tough about the Falklands, the leftist Mrs. Kirchner has been starving the 60,000-member Argentine armed forces of funds as part of a strategy to expunge Argentine militarism and quash any possibility of another dictatorship like the one that killed thousands of Argentines in the 1970s and 1980s. That regime also invaded the Falklands in 1982, sparking a brief war with the U.K that Argentina lost.
In a recent paper, Argentine academic Carlos Escud?® described Mrs. Kirchner's strategy as "one of the most radical pacifist experiments of all time."
Argentina's military spending, which had been about 3% of GDP at the time of the Falklands War, has fallen steadily to 0.9% of GDP by 2010, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. Today, even as Mrs. Kirchner has elevated overall public spending to historic highs, Argentina's military budget is at a record low both as a percentage of GDP and of the total budget, said political scientist Rosendo Fraga.
Alfredo Dato, a pro-government congressman who recently took over as chairman of the Defense Commission, said in an interview that Mrs. Kirchner's defense policy and her punishment of the human-rights abuses committed by the former military has widespread support from Argentines.
On Monday, Ms. Kirchner will visit the southernmost Argentine city of Ushuaia to lead rallies nationwide that honor Falklands War veterans and likely further press her country's claim.
Few lament the demise of the brutal dictatorship. But some defense hawks say Mrs. Kirchner has taken pacifism too far, noting that Argentina's northern border with Paraguay and Brazil is populated by drug traffickers, smugglers and arms dealers.
In addition, many Latin American countries have taken advantage of booming commodity prices to strengthen their defense, said Alejandro Corbacho, a specialist in defense at the Center for Macroeconomic Studies in Buenos Aires. Chile, Argentina's neighbor and longtime rival, has an armed force that is nearly 1.5 times larger than Argentina's in a country with only one-third the population. Chile spent 3.5% of GDP on defense in 2009, according to the Stockholm Institute.
Mrs. Kirchner's benign neglect of the military contrasts with her fierce diplomatic push for the islands, many analysts say. She has initiated a boycott of British goods in Argentina, called for neighboring Latin American countries to deny harbor to ships coming from the islands and threatened to sue companies involved in drilling for oil and gas off the archipelago's shore. On the stump, she has railed against English "colonialism" and "militarism."
While Mr. Mart?¡nez doesn't back another war for the Falklands, he said building up Argentina's military could buttress the country's diplomatic effort by forcing the U.K. to respond, making the islands a greater financial and political burden for Britain. "England ended up returning Hong Kong to China because China is China," Mr. Mart?¡nez added.
But other analysts point to risks that Mrs. Kirchner's swaggering Falklands posture could provoke an incident that Argentina might not be able to back up militarily.
In December, a brief standoff ensued when an Argentine coast guard cutter, patrolling the River Plate between Argentina and Uruguay, started shadowing a Spanish fishing boat, which had a permit to fish in the Falklands, Uruguayan naval officials told the local press. The Kirchner government has accused Spanish fishing boats of fishing illegally in Falkland waters Argentina claims as its own. A Uruguayan military reconnaissance plane conducted a flyover to monitor the situation. After a tense period, the fishing boat shucked the Argentine pursuer and sailed off into international waters. "We have capacity for an incident, not for a war," said Mr. Fraga.
One hundred years ago, Argentina had the largest army in Latin America, Mr. Corbacho said. Argentina was riven by a succession of military coups throughout much of the past century, with the most brutal junta seizing power in 1976. Fighting leftist guerrilla groups and ruthlessly repressing all opponents, the junta "disappeared" and murdered at least 10,000 Argentines. Amid public discontent, the government in 1982 seized the Falklands in a bid to win public support. But British leader Margaret Thatcher sent a force across the Atlantic to take back the islandsÔÇöin a 74-day conflict in which more than 900 people diedÔÇödealing Argentina a humiliating defeat.
[ARGARMY]
These days, about 80% to 90% of the defense budget is absorbed by salaries and pensions, analysts say. Tthe Kirchner government has made only limited defense investmentsÔÇörenationalizing an arms factory and ramping up a project to build nuclear powered submarines.
About half of the respondents to a Defense Ministry poll in 2008 said they had been considering leaving the service and many had taken second jobs to supplement their meager paychecks.
Voting data suggests Mrs. Kirchner is unpopular in the military, Mr. Fraga said. In voting in the 2011 presidential election in the Argentine military base in Antarctica, where around 100 armed forces members are stationed, Mrs. Kirchner got only 13% of the vote, he said, about one quarter of the support she got at a national level.
Thanks. Can't see the invading again, for the reasons that Hootnow mentioned.
Wait, so would Messi be eligible to play for England? Might choose Northern Ireland though.
NewYorkSpurs
Steven Caulker
Would be pretty pointless to go to war there. It's not like if you won you could completely destroy the country's infrastructure and then try to instill your own beliefs upon them while simultaneously killing their population off.
NewYorkSpurs
Steven Caulker
Such an awesome show, worth an hour if you got it.
[video=youtube;7FNAoPtdIg0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FNAoPtdIg0&feature=related[/video]
[video=youtube;7FNAoPtdIg0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FNAoPtdIg0&feature=related[/video]
Mulletperm
Mauricio Taricco
Spot on.
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
Or how about (if the oil is even viable)
Its the Falklanders oil (seeing as its on their land) and they come to an agreement with Argentina to be able to land their oil there, considering it is easily the closest country to the Islands.
The Falklanders voted pretty much unanimously to be British territory - proximity has no relevance at all whatsoever. Argentina can go fudge themselves, it's our oil.
The only reason this is ever debated is because they had the nerve/stupidity to attack British soil - they should not get any kind of gain from such an act of aggression.
Hootnow
Jermaine Jenas
I know they did, I've already said this in my post. Of course proximity has relevance, you don't want to sail half way around the world just to drop off the oil.
You seem to be letting your jingoism get in the way of interpreting what I'm saying. I'm not saying to hand the Falklands over or give the Argentinians a share of the oil but to calm the ridiculous rhetoric on both sides so that we can sit down and talk. Not to 'reward' a failed military venture but for British self interest. Then, if it ever becomes viable, the oil remains the Falklanders' and is simply dropped off in Argentina to be refined/shipped off whatever, considering they have the nearest ports and are therefore likely to be the best economically.
The Falklands/British economy gets a boost. The Argentinian economy gets a boost. The two countries have good relations. And young men and women on both sides don't die because of the high games of politicians and generals. Great stuff.
the onion bargies national obsession with the falklands is ridiculous, they need to get over it
this is a great read - http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/97083/the-sovereignty-dispute-from-a-british-point-of-view
this is a great read - http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/97083/the-sovereignty-dispute-from-a-british-point-of-view