jaysea67
Erik Edman
After all the chatter from the win at Swansea piped down, the pub chat turned to upcoming fixtures, fates and fortunes.
Win both matches against Basel, and we earn five UEFA points - two for each win, one for advancing to semis. That would put us a full point up on Emirates Marketing Project in the UEFA co-efficient tables and in with a strong likelihood of being placed in the second seeds' pot for a CL group stage draw, a strategic advantage that AVB has no doubt already digested.
A win and a draw would leave us dead level and no one had a clue what the tie-breaker would be.
So it makes it worthwhile to give this round a good go. Wins will definitely be harder to achieve in the semi-finals.
UEFA's site does indeed have us 4 points behind Emirates Marketing Project but Bert Kassies' site, which I find more reliable, has us only 3 points behind. The tie-breaker is the team with the most coefficient points in the most recent season - that would be Spurs. Assuming there is only a 3 point gap, beating Basel over the two legs, whatever the individual results, would guarantee that Tottenham have a higher coefficient than Emirates Marketing Project in the UEFA rankings for next season. If Spurs don't reach the semi-finals then they will be ranked behind Emirates Marketing Project.
So, just to nerd out a little further, we're 26th ranked on the UEFA list. If we can earn max points in the two legs with Basel, it lifts us into 20th place. There's a chance PSG could nudge ahead of us, but they'd have to earn a win or a draw vs. Barcelona. Juventus currently are 19th and are still active in CL and likely to earn more points.
If we sit 20th, there's at least four higher-ranked clubs that won't be in CL next season - Liverpool, Sporting, Inter and Zenit. If we're in, then one of Chelsea or Arsenal is out, so effectively we'd be no worse than the 15th-ranked club and within the second seed range. There's also a further cushion available if one or more of four clubs fails to succeed from close battles currently going on in their domestic leagues - Valencia(5th, 2 pts. out), Schalke(4th, up by 3 pts. and in a battle), Lyon(2nd, up by 3 on St. Etienne), Marseille(3rd, up by 1 on St. Etienne, more close by.)
To win the cup we need to play five more matches, granting a possible maximum of 12 points(assuming all a club gets is two points for winning the final). Earn that and we'd be tied with Liverpool, a club soon destined to plummet in the rankings as their two best recent seasons will begin to come off UEFA's five year co-efficient equation. They'll be lucky to stay in the top 50 after next season.
Sorry to be picky but if we're 20th then I think we'd be above Sporting and Zenit. There could be a lot of highly ranked teams in the CL play-offs next season. If we hadn't moved above Ajax and PSV we might have found ourselves in the play-offs but unseeded. Below are the UEFA rankings and league positions as they currently stand.