Coronavirus

[djp82]

What restrictions can/should they enforce now? I know it may sound heartless and dismissive to people who work in the health service, but we can’t afford to keep shutting down the economy, telling everyone to work from home and print money we don’t have. We’ve got to come up with smarter ways of dealing with pandemics besides flipping the off switch to the economy because there will be more pandemics in the future.

I agree, I don’t want to see any more restrictions. Was just saying no way does Boris cancel Xmas again .

 

[monkeybarry]

A new strain you say? On the eve of a major celebration period? That is a lot more transmittable? That happens at a time when vaccine uptake is under pressure? That takes longer to be detected, increasing your risk to your family?
Hmmmmm.
You can see how some people go down certain paths

 

[DubaiSpur]

Why do you think the omicron variant is already here? There's only a few thousand cases in s africa. Mostly limited to one region. Yes a few cases have been found abroad, hong kong and belgium have had a case each. It might be, but it's not certain. The odds are actually against it. As it's so new.
Even if it is, it's still unsure if it is more transmissable than delta. As said s africa hasn't got that many cases of covid at the moment., so the variant isn't really competing. The uk it's everywhere and has been for months.
Also does it actually evade vaccines or prior transmission? Yes there may be reinfections but there are with delta. We know anti bodies drop and you can get reinfected. Tcells less so and might not prevent reinfection but prevent serious illness and death.


We need more information before talking of coffins being loaded into army vans.

You misunderstand me - I'm not saying this causes a more serious illness than Delta or other variants, that hasn't been proven yet. You're right that all we have to go on are preliminary field estimates in terms of R numbers and transmission rates.

But let's say that we do find that it bypasses vaccines and prior infections at a greater rate than Delta does. I would argue that would be a public health threat on par with that which spurred the first global lockdowns a year and a half ago.

But do you think compliance with those lockdowns will be anywhere near as complete as was the case in March/April 2020? People aren't willing to do so anymore. They may accept some measures, but compliance rates will drop faster and more pervasively than at any previous time, and public belief in lockdowns as a way to control the spread of the virus is falling inexorably.

Which sets up a major dilemma - to get people voluntarily following public health measures like in March/April 2020 will require major incidences of public trauma, like those coffins in Italy. But if it does get to that point, we have already failed at controlling this variant.

That was the thrust of my point - we're more vulnerable to this variant because public appetite for control measures is falling.

 

[Jurgen the German]

Nobodyhas suggested that. Just mask wearing in shops.

Wearing a mask is of very little inconvenience to people, it’s annoying and not always practical but I’m happy to do it for the short term. But you know the media will start pushing for a lockdown again if the cases start to go up significantly.

 

[LutonSpurs]

Not just flight bans. Quarantine, having to spend 10 days in quarantine then getting a hefty bill on top. Might ruin it.

Absolutely this.

Also not in response to you. But wear a mask. Even if you think it's placebo, many people are scared and most people have lost someone to this virus. It isn't oppression. It's nothing like genocide and protesting about it is tinpot thunderc*ntery

 

[Lilbaz]

You misunderstand me - I'm not saying this causes a more serious illness than Delta or other variants, that hasn't been proven yet. You're right that all we have to go on are preliminary field estimates in terms of R numbers and transmission rates.

But let's say that we do find that it bypasses vaccines and prior infections at a greater rate than Delta does. I would argue that would be a public health threat on par with that which spurred the first global lockdowns a year and a half ago.

But do you think compliance with those lockdowns will be anywhere near as complete as was the case in March/April 2020? People aren't willing to do so anymore. They may accept some measures, but compliance rates will drop faster and more pervasively than at any previous time, and public belief in lockdowns as a way to control the spread of the virus is falling inexorably.

Which sets up a major dilemma - to get people voluntarily following public health measures like in March/April 2020 will require major incidences of public trauma, like those coffins in Italy. But if it does get to that point, we have already failed at controlling this variant.

That was the thrust of my point - we're more vulnerable to this variant because public appetite for control measures is falling.

Agree. Especislly those who got vaxxed.

 

[LutonSpurs]

Unless this variant escapes the vaccines we don't need another lockdown. It's endemic. And now boosters are going to be available for all and sooner. But the first point is key. Increased transmission is an issue in terms of NHS capacity. But we should not disregard the amazing treatments we have now too..

My point here is that we cannot compare the current situation to last winter. There is so much that is different.

 

[Mikey10]

I agree, I don’t want to see any more restrictions. Was just saying no way does Boris cancel Xmas again .

That depends. As a country we are particularly vulnerable as we have accepted living with high levels of infection. If this new variant does have an R rate of 2, and if it does have some level of vaccine resistance, then it won’t take long for the NHS to really start to crumble, as there will be exponential growth from an existing high base rate of infection.

If that happens then there won’t really be an option other than lockdown.

For now, though, no one knows enough to see how this plays out. It’s a case of keeping fingers crossed.

 

[Lilbaz]

A new strain you say? On the eve of a major celebration period? That is a lot more transmittable? That happens at a time when vaccine uptake is under pressure? That takes longer to be detected, increasing your risk to your family?
Hmmmmm.
You can see how some people go down certain paths

A new strain yes we've had loads. Delta was in spring. We don't know if it's more transmissable. It took almost no time to be detected. Vaccine uptake is as good as it's going to get in the uk.
It was discovered in south africa that are now regretting sharing.

People go down certain paths becsuse they have that path set. Then fit everything to fulfill their narative.

 

[Lilbaz]

That depends. As a country we are particularly vulnerable as we have accepted living with high levels of infection. If this new variant does have an R rate of 2, and if it does have some level of vaccine resistance, then it won’t take long for the NHS to really start to crumble, as there will be exponential growth from an existing high base rate of infection.

If that happens then there won’t really be an option other than lockdown.

For now, though, no one knows enough to see how this plays out. It’s a case of keeping fingers crossed.

Totally disagree. We've accepted living with high levels which means our hospitals are at less threat than those that didn't. We have very good immunity in the population and are seeing hospitalisations and deaths falling. Where the rest of europe are seeing the opposite. We also test a lot more 6x as much as germany per capita. France has more people in hospital with covid than us at the moment.

 

[Lilbaz]

 

[Jurgen the German]

I’m not an epidemiologist, nor am I claiming to be an expert on this particular virus given how quickly things change, but don’t most scientists and virologists say that viruses tend to get milder as the virus wants to spread to as many people as possible and it can’t do that if it kills the host?

 

[Jurgen the German]

That depends. As a country we are particularly vulnerable as we have accepted living with high levels of infection. If this new variant does have an R rate of 2, and if it does have some level of vaccine resistance, then it won’t take long for the NHS to really start to crumble, as there will be exponential growth from an existing high base rate of infection.

If that happens then there won’t really be an option other than lockdown.

For now, though, no one knows enough to see how this plays out. It’s a case of keeping fingers crossed.

Infections/case numbers aren’t necessarily a problem if they don’t translate into higher hospitalisation and deaths.

 

[Lilbaz]

I’m not an epidemiologist, nor am I claiming to be an expert on this particular virus given how quickly things change, but don’t most scientists and virologists say that viruses tend to get milder as the virus wants to spread to as many people as possible and it can’t do that if it kills the host?

For ones that have a high fatality rate yes. Otherwise they kill the host before they can infect others. Covids fatality rate isn't that high. Just above flu. You become infectious after day 2 and usually an infection lasts a week. For more vulnerable it can last longer with deaths averaging 4 weeks after infection.

Although asymptmomatic cases will be out and about more. Spreading. While those ill might be home in bed. So it is possible.

 

[Lilbaz]

There is not concious effort in mutations. They are totally random. The ones that are beneficial to it replicating will most likely survive. Those that aren't won't.

The mutations can be anything. Make it stay airborne longer. Survive better in different temperatures. Trick immune systems. Replicate faster. Or even do less damage to a host.

 

[monkeybarry]

A new strain yes we've had loads. Delta was in spring. We don't know if it's more transmissable. It took almost no time to be detected. Vaccine uptake is as good as it's going to get in the uk.
It was discovered in south africa that are now regretting sharing.

People go down certain paths becsuse they have that path set. Then fit everything to fulfill their narative.

It has been reported in interviews by reputable epidemiologists that it's significantly more transmittable.
It has been reported in Germany (perhaps Belgium) that someone was a-symptomic for 11 days prior to discovery.
The UK isn't the world.

Everything I posted is the currently reported position - we live in a post truth age, so you can see how people go down a certain path.

 

[Mikey10]

Totally disagree. We've accepted living with high levels which means our hospitals are at less threat than those that didn't. We have very good immunity in the population and are seeing hospitalisations and deaths falling. Where the rest of europe are seeing the opposite. We also test a lot more 6x as much as germany per capita. France has more people in hospital with covid than us at the moment.

Our hospitals are already pretty close to breaking point. They have been run at capacity over winters for many years before Covid arrived on the scene.

Add in a highly transmissible variant which has some vaccine evasion and we will quickly be in a real mess.

As I said earlier, no one really knows yet how this variant behaves, or what the effects of it are. We only have speculation.

It’s pretty clear, though, that governments all over the world (who will know more about this variant than any of us random posters on a football forum) are scrambling to bring in restrictions. They are, at the very least, being extremely cautious. It may be that they are pretty worried.

Hopefully the news from the scientists will be good. Until we have reliable data no one really knows.

 

[Lilbaz]

It has been reported in interviews by reputable epidemiologists that it's significantly more transmittable.
It has been reported in Germany (perhaps Belgium) that someone was a-symptomic for 11 days prior to discovery.
The UK isn't the world.

Everything I posted is the currently reported position - we live in a post truth age, so you can see how people go down a certain path.

It may be more transmissable. It is reported as more transmissable because in s africa it out competed delta. 1 issue with that there was hardly any cases of delta to out compete.
We don't know yet.

Yes a woman was asymptomatic for 11 days before showing any symptoms. Does that mske it worse than if she had dropped dead after 2? Ok it might mean it goes undetected for an extra few days. But it was detected. If it's as transmissable as made out it would be.

Everything is speculation. It may turn out not to cause any severe illness whatsoever. It might turn out to not survive long in cold weather. We don't know. It might kill us all. We don't know.

Making assumptions is pointless.

 

[Lilbaz]

Our hospitals are already pretty close to breaking point. They have been run at capacity over winters for many years before Covid arrived on the scene.

Add in a highly transmissible variant which has some vaccine evasion and we will quickly be in a real mess.

As I said earlier, no one really knows yet how this variant behaves, or what the effects of it are. We only have speculation.

It’s pretty clear, though, that governments all over the world (who will know more about this variant than any of us random posters on a football forum) are scrambling to bring in restrictions. They are, at the very least, being extremely cautious. It may be that they are pretty worried.

Hopefully the news from the scientists will be good. Until we have reliable data no one really knows.

You said as a country we are particularly vulnerable. Which is what i disagree with. We are probably one of the countries in europe that is least vulnerable.

 

[monkeybarry]

It may be more transmissable. It is reported as more transmissable because in s africa it out competed delta. 1 issue with that there was hardly any cases of delta to out compete.
We don't know yet.

Yes a woman was asymptomatic for 11 days before showing any symptoms. Does that mske it worse than if she had dropped dead after 2? Ok it might mean it goes undetected for an extra few days. But it was detected. If it's as transmissable as made out it would be.

Everything is speculation. It may turn out not to cause any severe illness whatsoever. It might turn out to not survive long in cold weather. We don't know. It might kill us all. We don't know.

Making assumptions is pointless.

Yeah, no brick Sherlock.
That's why my post was about the people that take information, jump to conclusions, make 2 plus 2 equal 9 and go down the rabbit hole.