Coronavirus

[Danishfurniturelover]

Another thing we've really liked and will keep doing in future

We've had deliveries of meat from the local butcher and also fruit and veg from farms, far far superior to supermarket produce and helping local businesses too

That is something i love to hear. Would like to see more of this happen in the future. I know people work long hours but if they can do local pick ups it could become a thing.

Im in a village and a restaurant wholesalers is selling us 400 eggs which the neighbourhood watch are going to sell round.

 

[Hootnow]

These are the words of the editor of the Lancet at the end of January:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1220606842449072128

He is probably the loudest and most qualified critic of the government's actions. There's some very selective amnesia going on amongst those who simply want to criticise the government, no matter what.

This tweet is totally true, yet it does not quite convey the message you think it does.

Covid-19 is not a 'killer' virus. Ebola is a killer virus. The average mortality rate is 50% for Ebola. Rabies is a killer virus. Left untreated, the mortality is essentially 100%. Right now, the case fatality rate of Covid-19 worldwide (albeit mostly in countries with good HC systems) is 17% for closed cases, approx 5% overall. Considering the likely high number of people who have had mild symptoms who haven't been tested, the real fatality rate is likely lower.

It is also true that it has moderate transmitability. The R0 of Covid-19 will differ based on the PH measures put in place but the average quoted is usually between 2.3-2.8 (this is the average number of people each person will infect). To again provide some comparison, measles is is somewhere between 12-15, Mumps about 5, Influenza usually between 1-2, chickenpox around 10. It does have lower transmitability.

So yes, I agree that the media reporting has not been helpful. It has added to anxieties, even for younger people with no co-morbidities who, for the most part, are left relatively unscathed by the virus.

What I think you have taken from this tweet is that 'This virus is not as bad as people think, everybody carry on'.

This is not what he's been saying generally or what he believes. It is not what most doctors or epidemiologists believe either. It is just the media reporting is incredibly unhelpful.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

The Chinese government is more attuned with what their people want than the caricature many Westerners have built in their heads about that country.

Which is not to say that their government is not a brutal, repressive one.

Wow.

Mate your usually the most intelligent one on here and i get you hate the tories, i didn't vote for them either.

But china does not treat its citizens well, glad you at least acknowledge that a bit at the end.

 

[scaramanga]

1.4 BN people in China, original source of virus which one human spreads at an alarming rate and has a 5-10% mortality rate.

Then you read about the political positioning of the Dr who died after speaking out about the disease who was silenced then hailed a hero.

They are definitely lying about a lot of this.

I don't disagree they're lying here, but I think 5% is way too high.

 

[Grays_1890]

The Chinese government is more attuned with what their people want than the caricature many Westerners have built in their heads about that country.

More like the public obey what the government want and it seems that way.

I work in travel and have worked for a number of hotel chains based in China and although like anything western opinion is over the top the initial sentiment is spot on.

Xi Jinping is a nut job

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Thanks mate. It is slightly concerning to see the rate of healthcare worker infections (and deaths) in China, Italy and Spain, especially when the government is not providing proper PPE for us but there is not much we can do currently. I at least tell myself I am still (relatively!) young and thankfully have no other medical issues.

We probably do become slightly numb at times to this stuff (have to) but I do think the emotional impact will be unlike anything we've ever faced. I've already seen some harrowing things. Even though my trust is probably one of the most well prepared in the country, we are already having to make difficult decisions about who should go the intensive care and this will get worse as time goes on.

We are literally on a war footing, with some doctors and nurses sending kids away to grandparents, sleeping in hotels near the hospital/ hospital itself, moving to crisis teams etc etc.

Quite a few HCWs have already died from the infection in the UK and a few have also committed suicide. We're still only really at the beginning of the curve too.

Difficult times ahead.

Stay safe.

You would think if we were on a war footing a couple of weeks ago that the government should have got you guys the right equipment.

That is a poor response and on the government as far as im concerned.

 

[Grays_1890]

Yes, they should plan for epidemics. That is the point of being in government and leading a country, rather than being a lout who's at the pub every day and thinks they can do a better job that Mourinho or Pep or Johnson. Just like countries prepare for war, natural disasters, cyber attacks etc.

In fact, we do have drills for exactly situations like these. They ran a simulation in 2016, to assess our preparedness for a flu pandemic:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...s-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic

Which found, surprise surprise, we weren't prepared. So what did they change? Nothing.

Outstanding.

And Boris has been in total charge since December when this broke, so I think he is allowed fair breathing space on the blame that he couldn’t reverse 10 years of decline in by the end of December.

 

[scaramanga]

This tweet is totally true, yet it does not quite convey the message you think it does.

Covid-19 is not a 'killer' virus. Ebola is a killer virus. The average mortality rate is 50% for Ebola. Rabies is a killer virus. Left untreated, the mortality is essentially 400%. Right now, the case fatality rate of Covid-19 worldwide (albeit mostly in countries with good HC systems) is 17%. Considering the likely high number of people who have had mild symptoms who haven't been tested, the real fatality rate is likely lower.

It is also true that it has moderate transmitability. The R0 of Covid-19 will differ based on the PH measures put in place but the average quoted is usually between 2.3-2.8 (this is the average number of people each person will infect). To again provide some comparison, measles is is somewhere between 12-15, Mumps about 5, Influenza usually between 1-2, chickenpox around 10. It does have lower transmitability.

So yes, I agree that the media reporting has not been helpful. It has added to anxieties, even for younger people with no co-morbidities who, for the most part, are left relatively unscathed by the virus.

What I think you have taken from this tweet is that 'This virus is not as bad as people think, everybody carry on'.

This is not what he's been saying generally or what he believes. It is not what most doctors or epidemiologists believe either. It is just the media reporting is incredibly unhelpful.

I agree with your analysis above but was already well aware of that - laymen in this thread have even been passing that analysis around for a while.

My point is that at the end of January, he was intentionally and publicly stating that this was not a case for alarm. Had he meant that govt should be ramping up defences for an imminent battle, I think he would have phrased what he said very differently.

 

[Hootnow]

Wow.

Mate your usually the most intelligent one on here and i get you hate the tories, i didn't vote for them either.

But china does not treat its citizens well, glad you at least acknowledge that a bit at the end.

I didn't say that it treats them well. It treats certain elements of their population like crap and is running actual concentration camps in the NW of the country. They have widespread censorship (though probably not quite as hard to get around as many people in the West think) and no elections. There's a lot of corruption.

I would never want to live under their system at all.

I was just saying that unlike for instance Kim or most of the Arab dictators, who treat their country as their own personal piggy bank and couldn't care a jot about what their citizens think or do, there is a little bit more to and fro in China. For instance, the protests in HK would have have been brutally put down in Arab countries, with many thousands of casualties.

That was my only point.

 

[Parklaner81]

Covid-19 is not a 'killer' virus. Ebola is a killer virus. The average mortality rate is 50% for Ebola. Rabies is a killer virus. Left untreated, the mortality is essentially 400%. Right now, the case fatality rate of Covid-19 worldwide (albeit mostly in countries with good HC systems) is 17%. Considering the likely high number of people who have had mild symptoms who haven't been tested, the real fatality rate is likely lower.

Is this a typo? If not, please could you explain how you've arrived at this figure?

 

[DTA]

That took them over a month and due to the nature of the communist party the data coming out was likely to be slow and inaccurate including the death toll.

Hardly helpful

That did take them over a month. Because no country takes the decision to lock down millions of people and losing billions lightly.

But having seen what they done, the way the uk government failed to prepare properly is negligent.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

I didn't say that it treats them well. It treats certain elements of their population like crap and is running actual concentration camps in the NW of the country. They have widespread censorship (though probably not quite as hard to get around as many people in the West think) and no elections. There's a lot of corruption.

I would never want to live under their system at all.

I was just saying that unlike for instance Kim or most of the Arab dictators, who treat their country as their own personal piggy bank and couldn't care a jot about what their citizens think or do, there is a little bit more to and fro in China. For instance, the protests in HK would have have been brutally put down in Arab countries, with many thousands of casualties.

That was my only point.

Kardashian ?

 

[Grays_1890]

I don't disagree they're lying here, but I think 5% is way too high.

yeh sorry I was just using the reported case v death rate not taking into account those who have it we don’t know about actually having it

 

[Hootnow]

And Boris has been in total charge since December when this broke, so I think he is allowed fair breathing space on the blame that he couldn’t reverse 10 years of decline in by the end of December.

I actually am not blaming Boris (or certainly not him alone) in this.

Hence why I've been saying Tories as opposed to Boris in my posts.

The main thing I blame him for currently is the EU ventilator scheme. Otherwise this is a genuinely difficult situation. The other thing I blame him and the government for is as follows:

I have some background in Public Health (though am not a PH doctor by any means). A lot of my old colleagues are now Profs in PH or big figures in it, epidemiology etc. Some of them have been involved in controlling Ebola outbreaks etc in the past.

And yet until quite recently, they were not really engaged at all. Other experts they know were also not engaged. These are British experts, living and working in the UK.

Very poor imo.

Of course the other stuff is not on Boris though.

 

[Grays_1890]

I didn't say that it treats them well. It treats certain elements of their population like crap and is running actual concentration camps in the NW of the country. They have widespread censorship (though probably not quite as hard to get around as many people in the West think) and no elections. There's a lot of corruption.

I would never want to live under their system at all.

I was just saying that unlike for instance Kim or most of the Arab dictators, who treat their country as their own personal piggy bank and couldn't care a jot about what their citizens think or do, there is a little bit more to and fro in China. For instance, the protests in HK would have have been brutally put down in Arab countries, with many thousands of casualties.

That was my only point.

The comparison of Arab countries versus China is a little off if you are using them as a direct like for like.

Wowzers

 

[Grays_1890]

I didn't say that it treats them well. It treats certain elements of their population like crap and is running actual concentration camps in the NW of the country. They have widespread censorship (though probably not quite as hard to get around as many people in the West think) and no elections. There's a lot of corruption.

I would never want to live under their system at all.

I was just saying that unlike for instance Kim or most of the Arab dictators, who treat their country as their own personal piggy bank and couldn't care a jot about what their citizens think or do, there is a little bit more to and fro in China. For instance, the protests in HK would have have been brutally put down in Arab countries, with many thousands of casualties.

That was my only point.

The comparison of Arab countries versus China is a little off if you are using them as a direct like for like.

Wowzers

 

[Hootnow]

The fact that the death toll is likely to come from bizarre habits that comes from old folk story beliefs which are more rife in a communist or sheltered society shows there is no exact science in this.

I won’t ignore that we have problems but we are reacting to something that scientists believe had a 99.9% chance of jumping from a market where highly contagious animals from all over the globe that shouldn’t be kept next to each other were sold for old wives tail medicine, ironically for a cough.

I'll be totally honest. I may be misreading this but I don't quite understand this post or its relevance to what I'd written. The wet markets are a complete shambles of course, for so so many reasons.

 

[Hootnow]

Is this a typo? If not, please could you explain how you've arrived at this figure?

Apologies, that was a typo. I meant to write 17% of closed cases. Mortality rate in total so far (with mostly still ongoing cases) is approx 5%, though like I said, likely much much lower in reality as many people will have mild symptoms and won't be tested.

I'll go back and edit the post to avoid further confusion in the future.

FFs, I typoed typo in this post! Brain working faster than my fingers I think.

 

[Grays_1890]

I'll be totally honest. I may be misreading this but I don't quite understand this post or its relevance to what I'd written. The wet markets are a complete shambles of course, for so so many reasons.

And it’s an example of a community action that are common in regimes that are sheltered like communism.

And based on fact that this kind of bizarre living habit caused the virus I would be careful about praising how the Chinese are governed and live because although I’m happy to question the West and we should let’s not be blind to what caused this and sick and stupid it is.

 

[Hootnow]

More like the public obey what the government want and it seems that way.

I work in travel and have worked for a number of hotel chains based in China and although like anything western opinion is over the top the initial sentiment is spot on.

Xi Jinping is a nut job

I also have quite a few colleagues from China and have been to China a few times previously. The public obey what the government wants. There are also many (including those who have settled in the West) who are perfectly happy with how the government runs things.

Of course I disagree but they are saying this as totally free citizens in the West.

Agreed that Xi is a total nutter.

And I'm not using the Arab countries and China as a direct comparison. I am saying that the caricatures of them doing things without any thought whatsoever as to public opinion is, imo, wrong. And there are examples of dictatorships around the world that we can see where this exact mentality does apply.

That doesn't mean the communist party is nice or that I'd want to live under their government.