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Coronavirus

Grays_1890 said:
Ok based on the fact we all saw what was going on should we then summarise that the self employed would have seen it coming and squirrelled away and not moaned about lack of backing once the brick hit the fan? Or is every point a fault of the Government and no one needs take self responsibility? Like being told to stay home and not like this week? This point is off piste but wanted to make it as I think it encapsulates the whole argument in some ways.

From your points do you think in taking advise from round the world and from scientific experts of which you have to take one point of view over a noise of opinion that the government did this on purpose? When you see Italy, US, Sweden refusing lock down everyone taking totally different routes that its just a hard and fast rule? I don't personally.

The herd immunity will raise its head again because the current way means 12 months lock down and the Government can't afford to nationalise the entire nation and nor can it afford to have 40-60% of the country unemployed.

Could they have done things better.....400% but the infect to death rate is huge and its spread like wildfire in less than a month, even the best prepared are ill prepared.

Its 99.9% certain this came from the weird and wonderful faith that eating highly contageous animals for healing caused this, the rest of the world has to deal with the fall out from that, I don't expect them to do that perfectly, especially not when deaths involved.

Others on here are arguing that you can play football behind closed doors and others want the country locked down weeks ago, Thats the public without the pressure of running the country.

I for one will give Bojo a break, government is circumstance as much as it is planning
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But good governance is planning for circumstance.

This should have been appearing quite prominently on Matt Hanrooster's risk register. It's low probability but the highest of impact, so draft mitigation actions should exist and be constantly updated, with an action plan that is ready to go.
It should have been scaled up and any small gaps (the kind of gaps that exist naturally on a passive policy) filled in as soon as Wuhan happened so it was ready to go if needed.
We have treated this more like disaster recovery from a society security point of view rather than managing the emerging risk.
And that right there is the danger (and IMHO the issue) with (C)conservative and libertarians politics.
So anyone buying into that ideology will have to take some responsdibilty for whatever unfolds.
China can call upon the shock of the quick escalation. The two or three countries it spread to afterwards can.
No-one else can. Anything after that is governance that should have been better. (I won't say poor governance, because it's more down to poor ideology. But it wasn't good governance either.)
 
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monkeybarry said:
But good governance is planning for circumstance.

This should have been appearing quite prominently on Matt Hanrooster's risk register. It's low probability but the highest of impact, so draft mitigation actions should exist and be constantly updated, with an action plan that is ready to go.
It should have been scaled up and any small gaps (the kind of gaps that exist naturally on a passive policy) filled in as soon as Wuhan happened so it was ready to go if needed.
We have treated this more like disaster recovery from a society security point of view rather than managing the emerging risk.
And that right there is the danger (and IMHO the issue) with (C)conservative and libertarians politics.
So anyone buying into that ideology will have to take some responsdibilty for whatever unfolds.
China can call upon the shock of the quick escalation. The two or three countries it spread to afterwards can.
No-one else can. Anything after that is governance that should have been better. (I won't say poor governance, because it's more down to poor ideology. But it wasn't good governance either.)
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Or maybe they were mislead by data from circumstances like SARS which was contained, which was a highly contagious disease.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Or maybe they were mislead by data from circumstances like SARS which was contained, which was a highly contagious disease.
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Doesn't change the need for appropriate mitigation planning.
"Large scale spread of virus with no immediately available vaccine" should be on the risk register.
 
monkeybarry said:
Doesn't change the need for appropriate mitigation planning.
"Large scale spread of virus with no immediately available vaccine" should be on the risk register.
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Fact is, and also according to the DR that led the fight against SARS based in HK the fault lays squarely with China. As soon as the first case was known they should have done more to contain, this is their 2nd mad outbreak.

Didn’t report to WHO till end of December with fudged data and didn’t close travel till Jan 23rd. Sorry just because they are further down line and being used as a mark of the green shoots of recovery doesn’t mean they are not to blame.

They set the tone that the world followed and ultimately had to adapt.
 
Grays_1890 said:
On what respect? Better the leader of the country dies?

Next you will be wanting a bullet proof car on the tax payer too?
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Nah, I was just jesting. My Dad was a postie for 40 years after we left London!

Bullet proof car sounds cool. More like a James Bond one though please, not a brick pope mobile.
 
DTA said:
I think when they saw what was happening in Wuhan in January then they should have prepared.

1.They should have taken precautions at entry points to slow down the spread.
2. They should have ramped up testing capabilities to at least cover key workers
3.they should have been buying up ventilators from January
4. Shut down large events sooner
5.not lose EU procurement emails for joint purchasing of ventilators in the junk mail (what a fudging excuse that is)
6. Not faffed about with the idea of herd immunity

I could go on but you get the idea. And before any one accuses me of saying this in hindsight. Have a look at my message to chich when he came back from china... to me it was patently obvious what was going to happen.
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These are the words of the editor of the Lancet at the end of January:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1220606842449072128

He is probably the loudest and most qualified critic of the government's actions. There's some very selective amnesia going on amongst those who simply want to criticise the government, no matter what.
 
DTA said:
Even if herd immunity is the way to go. What you absolutely need to do is buy time to prepare. Be proactive not reactive. Imagine if they prepared properly and bought 40,000 ventilators ramped up testing capabilities so all key workers could be tested. bought enough protective clothing for the NHS. Quadrupled ICU beds. Invested in therapeutic treatments using existing drugs.... oh and be sure that any kind of immunity is actually possible... because we are still not sure about that yet.

If they done all this first... then they could have looked in to herd immunity.
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If the govt did that every time things looked like they did in January, they'd have been (rightly) criticised for wasting stack of our money in all the time it didn't turn out to be a pandemic.

As for the bolded bit, I'm not sure I've seen any credible still saying that reinfection is possible in anything but a small proportion of cases.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Or maybe they were mislead by data from circumstances like SARS which was contained, which was a highly contagious disease.
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As soon as they saw the measures that china were putting into place they should have been on war planning mode.

I'm no expert on the chinese state. But I know that they wont lock down a city the size of London unless it was deadly serious.
 
DTA said:
I absolutely did yeah. The only thing I didnt do which I should have done is short the market. But I just dont have the Stones for that to honest...
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Did you do that for SARS and MERS too or did you just get lucky on this one?
 
scaramanga said:
If the govt did that every time things looked like they did in January, they'd have been (rightly) criticised for wasting stack of our money in all the time it didn't turn out to be a pandemic.

As for the bolded bit, I'm not sure I've seen any credible still saying that reinfection is possible in anything but a small proportion of cases.
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14% of recovered patients in China were found to be still contagious. We don't know brick about this thing. Until we have a vaccine, caution is the only option. Think about something other than money, you dingdong.
 
scaramanga said:
How much of our money should they have blown on something like that just in case?
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As soon as the chinese locked down wuhan (actually before) it was no longer just in case.

So the answer to you question is a lot less then they ended up spending.
 
DTA said:
As soon as they saw the measures that china were putting into place they should have been on war planning mode.

I'm no expert on the chinese state. But I know that they wont lock down a city the size of London unless it was deadly serious.
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The Chinese would lock down a fudging city if someone tweeted something they don't like.

I'm not sure you understand China and/or communism.
 
DTA said:
As soon as the chinese locked down wuhan (actually before) it was no longer just in case.

So the answer to you question is a lot less then they ended up spending.
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When we knew nothing about it?

Would almost certainly have been a massive waste if money without hindsight.
 
nayenezgani said:
14% of recovered patients in China were found to be still contagious. We don't know brick about this thing. Until we have a vaccine, caution is the only option. Think about something other than money, you dingdong.
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Don't trust any of the data you get from China.

Without money everyone dies. It's a bit more important than some old and infirm people.
 
scaramanga said:
The Chinese would lock down a fudging city if someone tweeted something they don't like.

I'm not sure you understand China and/or communism.
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scaramanga said:
When we knew nothing about it?

Would almost certainly have been a massive waste if money without hindsight.
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Dude if you think that the chinese lock down a city that size for s hits and giggles then it is you that knows nothing about the chinese.
 
DTA said:
Dude if you think that the chinese lock down a city that size for s hits and giggles then it is you that knows nothing about the chinese.
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It's not like they're going to get voted out in the next election cycle.

Any action the Chinese govt makes is entirely without consequence. So yes, I think they'd do whatever the fudge they want to do whenever the fudge they want.
 
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