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Coronavirus

Lilbaz said:
They are talking zbout a 2 week circuit breaker after xmas. Which is a lockdown. That is what i don't want or think is needed.
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The policy won’t be decided on what people want or need. It will be decided on whether the NHS and other public services can withstand collapse.

There is a bit of foot stamping in all of this: “But we don’t want a lockdown!” Who does? It’s about what we have to do as a nation to cope with this latest wave.

As Javid said on Marr this morning, Omicron accounted for 1% of London infections a fortnight ago - the numbers in hospitals of those affected with that variant are the result of those infections. It now accounts for 60% of London infections; so a fortnight from now we’ll have more of an idea as to where we stand.
 
Grays_1890 said:
I'm generally talking from a non selfish POV because I'm not earning 70k salary because of the pandemic I just see a balance because of the worse case scenario theory is wrong we needlessly ruin people's lives and I understand the counter arguments to that I just feel we are all far too comfortable with people's jobs and general lives being ample collateral damage in all this.
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Excellent point.
Some food for thought there in general - thanks.

A furlough must run alongside any lockdown type situation - that is a conundrum the world is going to have to solve very soon as funding them in the medium term is ultimately going to be non capitalist/non conservative.
 
Mikey10 said:
The policy won’t be decided on what people want or need. It will be decided on whether the NHS and other public services can withstand collapse.

There is a bit of foot stamping in all of this: “But we don’t want a lockdown!” Who does? It’s about what we have to do as a nation to cope with this latest wave.

As Javid said on Marr this morning, Omicron accounted for 1% of London infections a fortnight ago - the numbers in hospitals of those affected with that variant are the result of those infections. It now accounts for 60% of London infections; so a fortnight from now we’ll have more of an idea as to where we stand.
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Again. We have 7611 people in hospital with covid compared to almost 40,000 last january. The number is falling not going up.
 
Gutter Boy said:
I think the issue (in London anyway) is a pingdemic of NHS staff.

I guess an emergency solution could be to assign isolating staff to covid wards, and let the rest run routine services.
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The emergency situation is a lockdown and army medics if there is still a staff shortage.

If we get even remotely close to what you've described that's when you know (in the voice of uncle Roger for anyone that's a fan)....you fudged up
 
Mikey10 said:
The policy won’t be decided on what people want or need. It will be decided on whether the NHS and other public services can withstand collapse.

There is a bit of foot stamping in all of this: “But we don’t want a lockdown!” Who does? It’s about what we have to do as a nation to cope with this latest wave.

As Javid said on Marr this morning, Omicron accounted for 1% of London infections a fortnight ago - the numbers in hospitals of those affected with that variant are the result of those infections. It now accounts for 60% of London infections; so a fortnight from now we’ll have more of an idea as to where we stand.
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I’m not going to pretend to have the understanding of some of you guys when it comes to this subject. But at a very basic level it seems a bit pointless to lockdown:

- This variant is so transmissible, practically everyone is going to of had it by the time lockdown comes. If they was going to lockdown should have been much earlier when they first realised how transmissible it was.

- Locking down is pointless now, the vast majority I have spoke to won’t comply anymore and from what I’ve heard that is the case elsewhere. If the majority aren’t going to comply, the minority that do become irrelevant, it just won’t work

Feel free to come back and explain why my simpleton view is incorrect, that’s just how it appears to me….
 
monkeybarry said:
Excellent point.
Some food for thought there in general - thanks.

A furlough must run alongside any lockdown type situation - that is a conundrum the world is going to have to solve very soon as funding them in the medium term is ultimately going to be non capitalist/non conservative.
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Are they planning furlough?
 
harr1984 said:
I’m not going to pretend to have the understanding of some of you guys when it comes to this subject. But at a very basic level it seems a bit pointless to lockdown:

- This variant is so transmissible, practically everyone is going to of had it by the time lockdown comes. If they was going to lockdown should have been much earlier when they first realised how transmissible it was.

- Locking down is pointless now, the vast majority I have spoke to won’t comply anymore and from what I’ve heard that is the case elsewhere. If the majority aren’t going to comply, the minority that do become irrelevant, it just won’t work

Feel free to come back and explain why my simpleton view is incorrect, that’s just how it appears to me….
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No argument from me.
 
Lilbaz said:
Tbf i think the majority of people were in support of previous lockdowns. As was i. I think they were the right call.

Another one. When everyone has been offered a vaccine and the variant seems milder. I don't think the majority will be behind. The others we had vaccines to get to. A ray of hope. This? Nothing. It's just an endless path of new variants and lockdowns. People have had enough.
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I think most of were happy to lock down because they thought it was part of a plan and it would lead to normality.
Turns out that probably wasn't the the case.
 
monkeybarry said:
Again, the number at this point isn't the measure for the risk assessment.
That's what a forecast is.
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Ok here was the forecast.

By now we should be having almost 2 million omicron infections a day. Obviously daily testing wouldn't cover that. The symptom study can though. They say 112,650 covid infections with symptoms. Slight fudging difference.


https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
 
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Lilbaz said:
Ok here was the forecast.

By now we should be having almost 2 million omicron infections a day. Obviously daily testing wouldn't cover that. They symptom study can though. They say 112,650 covid infections with symptoms. Slight fudging difference.


https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
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That's all very good, but why aren't they putting that in front of the government, sage and jvci and asking for them to justify their figures.
 
Gutter Boy said:
It's basically to kill NYE parties. Apparently bookings for those are still massive, because people know their own risk assessment can recalibrate hugely once they've done the granny visit at xmas

The problem is, once it's on, it won't have any effect on case numbers, so the lockdown will last till June again.
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You are a drama queen GB…. If there is a lockdown it will likely be for 2 weeks.

Also can you tell me what qualifications you have that enable you to make a statement of ‘it won’t have any effect on case numbers’?
 
glasgowspur said:
That's all very good, but why aren't they putting that in front of the government, sage and jvci and asking for them to justify their figures.
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They have. Prof tim spector was trying for months to get the official symptoms for delta changed. They ignored him. Omicron seems to be the same. Even though the symptom study matches what the ons surveillance study finds (case number wise) and that is considered the gold standard. Only problem is the ons figures are usually a week behind.
 
Finney Is Back said:
You are a drama queen GB…. If there is a lockdown it will likely be for 2 weeks.

Also can you tell me what qualifications you have that enable you to make a statement of ‘it won’t have any effect on case numbers’?
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Like the netherlands 2 week lockdown? That started 12th november.
 
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