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Coronavirus

Mikey10 said:
Difficult to say for sure. Suicide rates, for example, fell during the lockdowns; plenty of evidence that anxiety and depression rose.

Anecdotal, but many people I know felt there were aspects of their lives which improved during lockdown - no commuting, more time with family - and it’s encouraged two to take the plunge and jack in the jobs they hated and start up new careers. Both are immeasurably happier.

With children, my experience as a teacher suggests things are also mixed. The vast majority of pupils have dealt with the situation very well and will have learned a lot they can take forward through the rest of their lives. Our experience is that those who struggled were those who were already struggling.

As with the pandemic as a whole, probably too early to tell what the eventual outcomes will be.
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Must have been incredibly tough for people who live by themselves.

It’s the other end of the spectrum for me. I moved in with my fiancée in February this year. It’s been great in some aspects as I’ve not had to travel to London every day but I do also think as a couple, you both need an outlet from each other. I’ve always been kind of happy in my own company anyway so I’ve appreciated having my own space. Zero chance of that in a lockdown as nothing is open apart from supermarkets. The only thing I can do for myself to get some space is running.

I think the lockdowns were necessary when no one was vaccinated and we didn’t know much about this virus but that’s not the case now. Lockdowns just cut off the spread of the virus as a temporary measure, the cases will always rise the second you lift the lockdown. Don’t want to be the profit of doom but chances are we will see more pandemics in the future (especially if we continue to be so reckless in how we produce food and if we’re not careful going into harmful habitats where animals like bats exist and breed diseases) so we can’t afford to lockdown every time that happens and print money. We’ve got to come up with smarter ways of dealing with them. If that means locking down the vulnerable/unvaxxed 10-20% so the other 80-90% can continue business as usual then so be it. I’m also strongly in favour of vaccine passports. Don’t mandate vaccines but also don’t expect to be able to go to places with mass crowds of people if you’re unvaccinated.
 
Here are some real numbers from Denmark and England, laid on top of predicted models for low infection rate, and High infection rate. Doesn't look good for England. Day 1 (dag 1) is the first day with 200 cases of omikron.
20211218_174526.png
 
Kandi1977 said:
Here are some real numbers from Denmark and England, laid on top of predicted models for low infection rate, and High infection rate. Doesn't look good for England. Day 1 (dag 1) is the first day with 200 cases of omikron.
View attachment 13288
Click to expand...

We know it's going to be massively high infection rate.
Maybe not as high as predictions go though.

Cases are less important these days. It's hospitalisations. Or more importantly the increase in the amount of people in hospital all causes.
 
A relief to see that cases might’ve now peaked for the Omicron wave in Gaunteng.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472137600181981186

Hopefully there won’t be a surge of hospitalisations in January which disproves what their local vaccinologists are saying…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tural-immunity-are-limiting-latest-covid-wave
The suggestion that previous exposure to another variant of coronavirus – or vaccination – might provide protection from the Omicron variant echoes analysis by South African experts earlier this week that suggested prior exposure or vaccination gave a degree of protection from serious disease.

That has been backed by several reports, including by public and private health providers, that suggest a lower level of hospital admissions during the current wave.

Echoing the findings of Shabir Mahdi, a vaccine expert at the University of the Witacoersrand, Johannesburg, the health minister, Joe Phaahla, told a news conference: “We believe that it might not necessarily just be that Omicron is less virulent, but … coverage of vaccination [and] … natural immunity of people who have already had contact with the virus is also adding to the protection. That’s why we are seeing mild illness.”
Click to expand...
 
Mikey10 said:
Difficult to say for sure. Suicide rates, for example, fell during the lockdowns; plenty of evidence that anxiety and depression rose.

Anecdotal, but many people I know felt there were aspects of their lives which improved during lockdown - no commuting, more time with family - and it’s encouraged two to take the plunge and jack in the jobs they hated and start up new careers. Both are immeasurably happier.

With children, my experience as a teacher suggests things are also mixed. The vast majority of pupils have dealt with the situation very well and will have learned a lot they can take forward through the rest of their lives. Our experience is that those who struggled were those who were already struggling.

As with the pandemic as a whole, probably too early to tell what the eventual outcomes will be.
Click to expand...


I can assure you that suicide rates did noy fall during lock down
 
Cases don't matter. Much more important - in South Africa hospitalisation to death ratio is 3.7%, compared to c.20% at the equivalent stage of the previous two waves

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From page 17 of this: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/u...ITAL-SURVEILLANCE-UPDATE_WEEK-48-2021_rev.pdf
 
Grays_1890 said:
Based on worse case scenario I get this however based on current infection levels versus hospitalisation and deaths we are clearly seeing a variant that is alot more milder. Comparable numbers previously on the infection numbers would have seen deaths in the 1000s which we are just not seeing. Its early says yeh I agree but there isnt anything to say this is going south anytime soon
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There isn't. But that's not the full risk measure, that's only the probability.
With zero/low two jab protection and super fast spread the impact becomes very high IF it happens. That impact has to be treated in a similar way to if the probability was high because it would result in significant loss of life.
That is also why this is almost certainly the next phase of the pandemic - faster spreading variants with lower impact. Its right to take short term precautions this time. The next time there might be a different framework in place for response. It's also really unfortunate it's at Xmas time.
 
Gutter Boy said:
The boy has cried wolf too many times already for a population suffering widespread mental trauma.

I'd certainly take my chances with covid again over going back to that prison for the rest of the winter.
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I'm not talking about the rest of winter. Nor am I talking about the Govt.

If it isn't medical professional led, no one is going to follow it.
I was talking about two weeks (appx) to get the booster program finished. At that point we are back to where we were pre-omicron - a widely vaccinated population and a small risk to medical services delivery.
If the people that choose not to get vaccinated die, that is their choice - no-one can be ignorant to the risks now.
 
Jurgen the German said:
Must have been incredibly tough for people who live by themselves.

It’s the other end of the spectrum for me. I moved in with my fiancée in February this year. It’s been great in some aspects as I’ve not had to travel to London every day but I do also think as a couple, you both need an outlet from each other. I’ve always been kind of happy in my own company anyway so I’ve appreciated having my own space. Zero chance of that in a lockdown as nothing is open apart from supermarkets. The only thing I can do for myself to get some space is running.

I think the lockdowns were necessary when no one was vaccinated and we didn’t know much about this virus but that’s not the case now. Lockdowns just cut off the spread of the virus as a temporary measure, the cases will always rise the second you lift the lockdown. Don’t want to be the profit of doom but chances are we will see more pandemics in the future (especially if we continue to be so reckless in how we produce food and if we’re not careful going into harmful habitats where animals like bats exist and breed diseases) so we can’t afford to lockdown every time that happens and print money. We’ve got to come up with smarter ways of dealing with them. If that means locking down the vulnerable/unvaxxed 10-20% so the other 80-90% can continue business as usual then so be it. I’m also strongly in favour of vaccine passports. Don’t mandate vaccines but also don’t expect to be able to go to places with mass crowds of people if you’re unvaccinated.
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I moved to Norwich so if we do lockdown again I don't have to spend it with other people :D

I'd actually quite like another lockdown purely for that reason!! :D:D:p:p
 
Lilbaz said:
If a small lockdown (as you suggested) doesn't slow anything down. What is the point?
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That doesn't correlate to the vulnerable becoming more vulnerable due to waning anti bodies - which was the point of your post.
It gives a window for wider vaccination whilst reducing the risk of exposure and insufficient medical services for the vulnerable.
 
monkeybarry said:
That doesn't correlate to the vulnerable becoming more vulnerable due to waning anti bodies - which was the point of your post.
It gives a window for wider vaccination whilst reducing the risk of exposure and insufficient medical services for the vulnerable.
Click to expand...

We know that antibodies wane over time.

We know that the risk of severe illness and death (on average) doubles every 7 years older than 18.

We have given boosters to the over 50's and most of the over 40's.

A 2 week circuit breaker, won't stop people getting infected. It just might delay their infection by a couple of weeks.

Yes it might reduce pressure on the health service, if they can't provide care for everyone at that time. But it will flare up again with the vulnersble more vulnerable. Putting even more stress on the health service.
 
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