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Coronavirus

One good thing seems to be that it doesn't seem to have originated in south africa. Many cases seem to have been travellers to nigeria before it was detected in sa.
We are not getting horror stories coming out of nigeria though.
 
Robspur12 said:
The point from @Lilbaz important because the 1% (I think slightly higher actually) reduces the selective pressure on it to dial down its virulence. It's too early to make any firm conclusions around the virulence of Omicron, although as you say early signs are promising.
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The snore comment wasn't about the stats, it was about ignoring the general point.

The 1% is relevant - viruses primary objective is to survive, so to mutate to become more/same virulent in the face of increased immunity would mean it acting like no other virus. There is little evidence thus far that Covid 19 will do this - instead finding its natural rate within its host community, as opposed to killing them. Covids pool of hosts isn't all of humanity, it's everyone it infects at one point in time - the more of those that die, the smaller the possibility of transmission, and therefore survival of the virus. Transmission isn't 100%.
 
monkeybarry said:
The snore comment wasn't about the stats, it was about ignoring the general point.

The 1% is relevant - viruses primary objective is to survive, so to mutate to become more/same virulent in the face of increased immunity would mean it acting like no other virus. There is little evidence thus far that Covid 19 will do this - instead finding its natural rate within its host community, as opposed to killing them. Covids pool of hosts isn't all of humanity, it's everyone it infects at one point in time - the more of those that die, the smaller the possibility of transmission, and therefore survival of the virus. Transmission isn't 100%.
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Like no other virus? What about flu? Infact flu can often mutate into something more severe, the asian flu and hong kong flu are examples.

I'm very optimistic that omicron is milder. But covid is under no pressure to mutate into a milder form. Yes it might come under pressure to mutate in ways that evade immunity (from vaccination or past infection). But those are 2 different things.

Covid you become infectious on day 2. 99% of people recover fully, only around 1% die and that is 4 weeks on average after infection. Long after most people would have recovered.
 
Examples of other viruses ifr:
Rabies 100%
Ebola 50%
Polio 15%
Chicken pox 0.8%.

None of these have mutated to be mild. Or milder than covid at least.
 
Lilbaz said:
Examples of other viruses ifr:
Rabies 100%
Ebola 50%
Polio 15%
Chicken pox 0.8%.

None of these have mutated to be mild.
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Fair point.
I was talking about viruses that transmit in similar ways/rates.
If any of the above spread like C19, it's hosts would be wiped out very quickly, thus killing itself - which is something it won't do, unless it's very different to anything before; and if it is, we'll never know, because we're all fudged.
 
Lilbaz said:
Examples of other viruses ifr:
Rabies 100%
Ebola 50%
Polio 15%
Chicken pox 0.8%.

None of these have mutated to be mild. Or milder than covid at least.
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There was an Ebola mutation that was milder, Reston, to humans at least, still pretty deadly to macaques.
 
monkeybarry said:
Fair point.
I was talking about viruses that transmit in similar ways/rates.
If any of the above spread like C19, it's hosts would be wiped out very quickly, thus killing itself - which is something it won't do, unless it's very different to anything before; and if it is, we'll never know, because we're all fudged.
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You might be correct in omicron but not in the way you might think.

A theory on how it came about with so many mutations is that it mutated in one person. Somebody that was immunocompromised. Their immune system would try to fight off the virus but was not strong enough to do so completely. So the virus would mutate, reinfect. The body then try to fight. Over and over till it was then passed onto someone else. Obviously if the virus killed that person it would have died with them.

There were similar stories of doctors trying to treat patients with covid, the virus would mutate as they were trying different treatments, to adapt.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was from the lab in wuhan. Where they used growth of function to make it more transmissable and mutate faster. We know that kind of research was going on there. On coronaviruses very similar to covid 19.

Lets hope omicron does only cause mild disease and is fast enough that it wipes itself out.
 
monkeybarry said:
Fair point.
I was talking about viruses that transmit in similar ways/rates.
If any of the above spread like C19, it's hosts would be wiped out very quickly, thus killing itself - which is something it won't do, unless it's very different to anything before; and if it is, we'll never know, because we're all fudged.
Click to expand...

The logical thing to go on is the 6 previous coronaviruses. The first 4 evolved into the common cold and SARS and MERS never got a strong foothold. So the logical path is to common cold, once it settles down and humanity's collective immunity gets trained.
 
Gutter Boy said:
The logical thing to go on is the 6 previous coronaviruses. The first 4 evolved into the common cold and SARS and MERS never got a strong foothold. So the logical path is to common cold, once it settles down and humanity's collective immunity gets trained.
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The ifr for delta is now lower than flu in the uk.
 
My daughter tested positive yesterday and I've had a positive test result this morning :( ...all PCRs

Strangely the Mrs has come back negative.

So 10 days it is.
 
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