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Coronavirus

Panic buying is rational. Well, the bog roll and hand sanitiser lot are a bit odd, but stocking up on tinned food, paracetemol, water and so on is definitely a good idea. The supply shock in April is going to be horrific.
 
Am I missing something here, the 24 hour news media are portraying this as the plague, in reality, yes the mortality rate is 2/3 x normal flu (which hundreds of thousands die from each year and there's no panic about) but the only real people at risk are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. In today's global traveling world, was there any likelihood this would really be contained and secondly, isn't it better for people to get this so they can build up an immunity like our body does with any other cold/flu/infection etc? My daughters school district in California closed down all 61 schools next week and no student/teacher has tested positive. Absolutely nuts.
 
Mr_B said:
Am I missing something here, the 24 hour news media are portraying this as the plague, in reality, yes the mortality rate is 2/3 x normal flu (which hundreds of thousands die from each year and there's no panic about) but the only real people at risk are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. In today's global traveling world, was there any likelihood this would really be contained and secondly, isn't it better for people to get this so they can build up an immunity like our body does with any other cold/flu/infection etc? My daughters school district in California closed down all 61 schools next week and no student/teacher has tested positive. Absolutely nuts.
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You have seen the graphic about the unmanageable impact on health care if infection is allowed to spike, versus the manageable impact if it is smoothed out over time? Not nuts, even in a weird polity like yours where politics is so polarised that epidemiology has become partisan.
 
Mr_B said:
Am I missing something here, the 24 hour news media are portraying this as the plague, in reality, yes the mortality rate is 2/3 x normal flu (which hundreds of thousands die from each year and there's no panic about) but the only real people at risk are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. In today's global traveling world, was there any likelihood this would really be contained and secondly, isn't it better for people to get this so they can build up an immunity like our body does with any other cold/flu/infection etc? My daughters school district in California closed down all 61 schools next week and no student/teacher has tested positive. Absolutely nuts.
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Current best estimates are that the mortality rate is ten times higher than typical seasonal flu. It is also more contagious than seasonal flu and there is no vaccine to protect the most vulnerable. It also has a long incubation period, so the number of people currently infected is far higher than we are aware of. I believe that the current central estimate is that 10% of the world's population will contract COVID-19, with a 1% mortality rate, that is a lot of deaths.
 
One of the bigger issues with not having good public health policy (where that is the case I must add, as many are doing the right thing) is that any over-strain on healthcare systems from Covid 19 leaves other illnesses under-covered. Seasonal flu and pneumonias will suddenly become "secondary" to corona, not to say anything of other conditions and illnesses.

The main panic, however, comes from one place only. Poor leadership. The US has always prided itself on being the big dog of the west. I have to say that had anyone other than Trump been in charge, I believe the panic and containment mechanisms would both be in much better places. What we have now is lunacy. A "leader" who cannot say anything coherent or logical, questioned even by his own trolling bootlickers! Strong, calm, decisive and authoritative leadership would've lead to states not having to declare States of Emergency. That they have done so is simply because otherwise they cannot have full-control access to the funding and resources necessary in such situations. Had Trump actually done the right thing here (he probably doesn't have a clue what that even is) then I firmly believe this would all be in a better frame.

Obviously we have to be careful and pay close attention. Pandemics demand as much. But this could be a hell of a lot worse.
 
elyid said:
Boris on TV yesterday: "One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go & allow #coronvirus to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1236778356105981953

My prediction is that at 1,000+ dead the gov start to brick themselves.
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If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd point out that the corona virus is the perfect solution for the upcoming pensions crisis in Europe.
 
Modric THFC said:
If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd point out that the corona virus is the perfect solution for the upcoming pensions crisis in Europe.
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In fairness, this is an absolutely perfect environment for conspiracy theories. The media is as much of a virus as anything. We are seeing in sharp detail how information versus knowledge are further apart than ever in many respects.
 
I assume what with all the sporting events being cancelled,. That the upcoming England vs Denmark friendly will also be cancelled?
 
Modric THFC said:
If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd point out that the corona virus is the perfect solution for the upcoming pensions crisis in Europe.
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Perhaps they'll get us all to self isolate and then feed us some brainwashing rhetoric as we all sit lonely at home with only the screens of phones, tablets and tv's to view the outside world thru?
 
Mr_B said:
Am I missing something here, the 24 hour news media are portraying this as the plague, in reality, yes the mortality rate is 2/3 x normal flu (which hundreds of thousands die from each year and there's no panic about) but the only real people at risk are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. In today's global traveling world, was there any likelihood this would really be contained and secondly, isn't it better for people to get this so they can build up an immunity like our body does with any other cold/flu/infection etc? My daughters school district in California closed down all 61 schools next week and no student/teacher has tested positive. Absolutely nuts.
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Better to get it? So more people can infect more people, among those many who will die from it. Seriously?

Already the amount of people infected is growing exponential every two days! For those who don't understand what that means (no offence, many many don't get exponential growth), that means a double the amount from whatever was the previous number.

It's the same trend in all European countries.
When this really hits USA, it will be a disaster! A test costs 1500$. Many won't afford that, and "hide" symptoms. Many wont/can't afford being away from work, a lot of people can't contact medical help because of fear of being thrown out of the country.
Belive me, it will be brutal there!

The real problem with this virus is exactly the attitude you have to it! It's just a little bit too "soft", not quite deadly enough, so lots of people will selfishly not bother. This it what will needlessly kill a lot of innocent people.

It's collective responsibility to try to fight this, and lots can be achieved with relatively small actions from each and everyone.
 
From an economic POV it'd make more sense if people with higher risk of getting very sick from this virus would be quarantined.
Mostly elderly or seriously sick people who have (sadly) little impact on world economy.
All the rest can go to work (or stay at home for some days if needed), travel, live their daily live as usual, as it happens in a flu-season.
 
Mr_B said:
In reality, yes the mortality rate is 2/3 x normal flu (which hundreds of thousands die from each year and there's no panic about)
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According to WHO, the mortality rate is estimated to be 3.4%
Mortality rate from regular flu is less than 0.1%.

If these figures are accurate then it's a minimum of 34 times more deadly than regular flu (and the rate of being hospitalised is much higher).

So based on that millions would die if it spread the same as flu (and it spreads easier than flu).

That's basically why China went crazy and why Italy is shutdown etc. We can avoid this scenario but need to take actions to quarantine people do so.
 
elyid said:
According to WHO, the mortality rate is estimated to be 3.4%
Mortality rate from regular flu is less than 0.1%.

If these figures are accurate then it's a minimum of 34 times more deadly than regular flu (and the rate of being hospitalised is much higher).

So based on that millions would die if it spread the same as flu (and it spreads easier than flu).

That's basically why China went crazy and why Italy is shutdown etc. We can avoid this scenario but need to take actions to quarantine people do so.
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I believe that's the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases. The hope in making that distinction being, that it would exclude the likely very very many undiagnosed mild cases which, if included, would result in a much lower overall mortality rate.

That's the story I'm telling myself, anyway.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I believe that's the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases. The hope in making that distinction being, that it would exclude the likely very very many undiagnosed mild cases which, if included, would result in a much lower overall mortality rate.

That's the story I'm telling myself, anyway.
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100% agree and in my mind that's quite probable.

However, the WHO did say it's their predicted mortality rate and not just the ratio... so hopefully they are proved wrong.
 
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