Baleforce
Arthur Rowe
I've not seen recent numbers but I saw some charts a few months back showing that the last lockdown and an increase in mask wearing had led to far lower than usual numbers for cases of flu
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
I've not seen recent numbers but I saw some charts a few months back showing that the last lockdown and an increase in mask wearing had led to far lower than usual numbers for cases of flu
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
People naturally go out and about during flu seasons. That is life. Precautions are taken as appropriate and HAVE BEEN given all the social distancing we do more routinely as well as other hygiene habits etc. It's not like there has been mass mixing in general (e.g. no concerts, no festivals, no football etc), what has happened is that for only a very few people life has not gone back to how it was in March before the first lockdown and more and more people are closer to the 'hermit' side of the general socialising scale.
It's the cost/benefit line of national lockdowns and lots of scientists who do not work for SAGE are saying that national lockdowns are now proving more destructive for society than they are helping with infection control.
Bare in mind that the fatality rate of covid-19 (if you ignore the accuracy issues with the PCR tests) is something like 0.001% and the vast majority of people who get it have very mild symptoms. I'm pretty sure i've also seen that the average age of death from covid-19 might even be higher than the average life expectancy!
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
Some would cynically say that flu deaths have almost disappeared worldwide...like some deaths where they would have tested for the flu virus they now don't bother because everyone admitted to hospital instead gets the PCR covid-19 test...so we might now be labeling some deaths that we previously attributed to flu just as covid-19.
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
Where are hearing this? And are you talking Northern Ireland or UK?
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
Why didn't you start the above post with the word 'I' ?
So someone who is admitted to hospital with flu would test positive for a Covid test....
..are you making it up as much as you're suggesting the doctors and hospital are?
Favour
Nicola Berti
Talking UK, been seeing it all week.
There was even a phone in on the BBC about it on Tues or Weds.
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
Why didn't you start the above post with the word 'I' ?
So someone who is admitted to hospital with flu would test positive for a Covid test....
Before i reply, do you know how the daily COVID death figures are collated?
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
I'm not sure anyone's saying that lockdowns don't reduce risk of transmission, I think the suggestion is that cases will increase and decrease with or without them.
This is the second time we've gone into a national lockdown with numbers being on a downward trend.
Favour
Nicola Berti
BBC
'Leaked documents' suggest NHS plan for Covid vaccine rollout
16:48
Everyone in the UK who wants to receive a coronavirus vaccine could get one before the end of April 2021 if supplies are sufficient, according to a report of a leaked NHS plan on how to roll-out jabs.
The Health Service Journal (HSJ) says it has seen documents that shows the government is planning a huge immunisation programme across GP-run facilities, roving vaccine teams and “mass vaccination sites”.
However, the plan relies on several assumptions, such as that only 75% of adults will accept the offer of a vaccine, and that seven million doses of the vaccine will be available in December.
And don't get too excited just yet - the Covid vaccines that have shown promising initial results in recent weeks have a long way to go before they become widely available.
The HSJ says the plan it has seen lays out the priority groups for receiving the vaccine, and the dates they'll be offered it:
Beginning of December: Healthcare workers, care home residents and care home staff
Mid-December: People aged 80 or over
Late December: Those aged 70 to 80
Early January: Everyone aged 65 to 70, as well as all high and moderate risk under 65s
Mid-January: Everyone aged 50 to 65
Late January: Everyone else over the age of 18 (but most of this group would be vaccinated during March, the report says)
Matt Hanrooster has just alluded to this during his 5pm briefing.
'Leaked documents' suggest NHS plan for Covid vaccine rollout
16:48
Everyone in the UK who wants to receive a coronavirus vaccine could get one before the end of April 2021 if supplies are sufficient, according to a report of a leaked NHS plan on how to roll-out jabs.
The Health Service Journal (HSJ) says it has seen documents that shows the government is planning a huge immunisation programme across GP-run facilities, roving vaccine teams and “mass vaccination sites”.
However, the plan relies on several assumptions, such as that only 75% of adults will accept the offer of a vaccine, and that seven million doses of the vaccine will be available in December.
And don't get too excited just yet - the Covid vaccines that have shown promising initial results in recent weeks have a long way to go before they become widely available.
The HSJ says the plan it has seen lays out the priority groups for receiving the vaccine, and the dates they'll be offered it:
Beginning of December: Healthcare workers, care home residents and care home staff
Mid-December: People aged 80 or over
Late December: Those aged 70 to 80
Early January: Everyone aged 65 to 70, as well as all high and moderate risk under 65s
Mid-January: Everyone aged 50 to 65
Late January: Everyone else over the age of 18 (but most of this group would be vaccinated during March, the report says)
Matt Hanrooster has just alluded to this during his 5pm briefing.
Diamond Lights
Alan Hutton
So based on this government's ability, by 2025 we should hopefully be able to get immunised. Wonderful.
Legohamster
Ian Walker
Almost timed to say lockdown works.....
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
I'm suggesting what you wrote didn't make sense.
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
Ok, let me explain in more detail.
The way the covid-19 daily figures are collated is as follows:
When a patient dies in hospital they are counted towards the daily covid-19 figures we get reported every day if they had a positive test (from the PCR) within 28 days prior of the date of death.
Patients who are admitted to hospital are routinely tested for covid-19 in all or nearly all hospitals.
Scenario:
A patient say on 1st August (who was asymptomatic) booked a covid-19 test because they were a contact of someone else they knew who was a positive case. They do the test and a day later on the 2nd the result comes back and surprisingly (they are asymptomatic after all) the result is that they are positive. They follow the rules as appropriate and isolate for 14 days.
They go about their life as normal after that but tragically on the 24th August they are involved in a bad road collision on their way to work. They are taken to hospital and admitted to a critical care ward and are on life-support due to their severe internal injuries. Two days later the prognosis worsens and sadly the family decide that life support is stopped and the person dies due to the multiple organ failure as a result of the collision. Upon admission this person actually had a covid-19 test which came back negative.
However, because of the positive result from earlier in the month this road traffic accident death is added to the daily covid-19 death figures due to the fact they link this death via the personal details (NHS Number, DOBs, name etc) to the database that holds all the covid-19 positive tests.
The only way in the current system would the above RTA death not be added as a covid-19 death is if the gap between this person's last positive result and the date they died was more than 28 days. No other nuance or rules are applied.
So it's not a case of any indivual nurse or doctor "inflating numbers" but the system without nuances and the tests.
You could change the abive reason for death to be seasonal flu, diabetes, cancer, injury from stabbing etc because of the constant testing on admission, the PCR inaccuracies, the fact that several asymptomatic people can test positive then you can see how the numbers might be very inflated.
In fact, do you remember when a national research unit pointed out that anybody who died and who had ever tested positive for coronavirus even if it was over 6 months ago were being added to the daily totals being reported? PHE had to 'refine' how they counted the deaths and the numbers came down by a few thousand. But you can still see that even with the '28 day refinement' how the numbers can still be inflated.
I hope that makes more sense?
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Favour
Nicola Berti
Both the government and The NHS are much better placed now than they were in March.
ricky2tricky4city
Steffen Freund
I think they are, and it's simply because they don't like the side effects of lockdown.
If lockdowns do reduce transmission then it follows they are one of the reasons cases reduce. Your implying that cases would reduce or increase regardless. They would do in respect of other reasons BUT lockdowns plainly have an affect on the reduction column.
FWIW I'm not pro or anti lockdown.(probably because none of it has really had an effect on me) I think lockdowns are only justifiable if medical care is projected to be overwhelmed. But any reset that lockdown brings should be a window of opportunity, we've failed on this front. It's also noticeable that any firm lockdown believers really have issue with relenquishing any ground regarding cited side-effects or potential built up hidden issues that lockdown WILL bring. It's polarised (as expected) just think the ranting on BOTH sides doesn't help and it all gets a bit conspiracy and/or agenda driven.
spurspinter1
Steve Carr
I realised quick that bickering with four Ozzies is like a grandmaster of chess, simultaneously beating 6 schoolkids; it's no fun for anyone really.
spurspinter1
Steve Carr
Yeah so you've made a massive assumption to guess who I am referring to. As I said, no need to carry on as it's been derailed because mouthbreathers can't figure out subtext
johnola
Jermaine Jenas
If fatality was at 0.001% then had the whole of the uk been infected the death toll would be expected to come to 680 or so.
So In reality it’s getting onto 1000 times worse than that.