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Coronavirus

Mikey10 said:
Don’t worry, we’ve got Brexit coming to sort it all out. What’s a few billion pounds of deficit once the £350 million a week from the side of Johnson and Gove’s bus starts rolling in?
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we will be paying that to France to stop them just opening the beach - which is amusingly ironic
 
Lot of interesting articles that Brexit will be fairly tame due to Covid biting harder, means the hit will be fairly on par with our recovery from Covid anyway
 
Legohamster said:
we should have followed Sweden, minus the care home error - which I think was the plan till Neil Fergurson fired up the spectrum ZX and randomly inserted some number and released them.
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Even without Ferguson's intervention, do you think our government would've withstood the media pressure that would have come from going the Sweden route? I doubt it somehow.
 
LutonSpurs said:
You do not accept that an earlier and stronger lockdown that reduced the infection rate in our country would have allowed us to open up earlier and avoided such a big slump?

I think the other things you have mentioned may have played some part but not as much as this governments ineptness.
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Quite an interesting one, looking at the data we'd peaked before lockdown officially started. I think 8 April was the day of highest deaths and there's a 3/4 week lead in I believe before someone passes so it looks like the peak was during the informal lockdown the week before when we were advised not to go out.

We have had a massively long tail though - far far longer than any of the other European countries who reduced cases to a much lower level at one point. I don't think we ever got below 500.

I think the lockdown was strong enough, the problem was that lots of people just blatantly didn't follow it - whether that's because they don't trust the gov't, don't like being told what to do, Cummings effect, didn't believe the horror stories or a combo of these things and more I don't know.
 
Parklaner81 said:
Even without Ferguson's intervention, do you think our government would've withstood the media pressure that would have come from going the Sweden route? I doubt it somehow.
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a strong Gov would, you expect a gov with an 80 seat majority to be strong.

but just proves the point they are all reactionary.
 
P.D. said:
Quite an interesting one, looking at the data we'd peaked before lockdown officially started. I think 8 April was the day of highest deaths and there's a 3/4 week lead in I believe before someone passes so it looks like the peak was during the informal lockdown the week before when we were advised not to go out.

We have had a massively long tail though - far far longer than any of the other European countries who reduced cases to a much lower level at one point. I don't think we ever got below 500.

I think the lockdown was strong enough, the problem was that lots of people just blatantly didn't follow it - whether that's because they don't trust the gov't, don't like being told what to do, Cummings effect, didn't believe the horror stories or a combo of these things and more I don't know.
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Agree on this, it is pretty much the point I made yesterday - we had a much shallower and longer decline than others. What was the reason for that? However it is termed, I can only think it was strongly influenced by insufficient strength of/adherence to the lockdown. My memory is that it held up well enough for only about 2-3 weeks before people started blatantly disregarding it, and the slippery slope began.
 
P.D. said:
Quite an interesting one, looking at the data we'd peaked before lockdown officially started. I think 8 April was the day of highest deaths and there's a 3/4 week lead in I believe before someone passes so it looks like the peak was during the informal lockdown the week before when we were advised not to go out.

We have had a massively long tail though - far far longer than any of the other European countries who reduced cases to a much lower level at one point. I don't think we ever got below 500.

I think the lockdown was strong enough, the problem was that lots of people just blatantly didn't follow it - whether that's because they don't trust the gov't, don't like being told what to do, Cummings effect, didn't believe the horror stories or a combo of these things and more I don't know.
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P.D. said:
Quite an interesting one, looking at the data we'd peaked before lockdown officially started. I think 8 April was the day of highest deaths and there's a 3/4 week lead in I believe before someone passes so it looks like the peak was during the informal lockdown the week before when we were advised not to go out.

We have had a massively long tail though - far far longer than any of the other European countries who reduced cases to a much lower level at one point. I don't think we ever got below 500.

I think the lockdown was strong enough, the problem was that lots of people just blatantly didn't follow it - whether that's because they don't trust the gov't, don't like being told what to do, Cummings effect, didn't believe the horror stories or a combo of these things and more I don't know.
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isn’t part the of the issue we don’t actually know the correct figures?

We don’t have a cut off either - we are still reporting deaths from May.

The PHE figures are a joke.
 
LutonSpurs said:
We can all look at Germany as a model for how we could have reacted.
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I agree they have had died it well

Comparisons aside I think most countries are going to have their own unique battle from now on, now it comes down to the unseen disease of economy and mental health versus COVID each country will react in a way that best meets their countries recover rather than battling the disease itself.
 
Legohamster said:
isn’t part the of the issue we don’t actually know the correct figures?

We don’t have a cut off either - we are still reporting deaths from May.

The PHE figures are a joke.
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I don't think any country knows exact figures but I'd wager the UK's are far closer to the truth than many countries. Spain and France didn't even include care homes in their initial stats, Italy too for a time. Spain even now reports their death toll as the number of deaths that happened the previous day on that exact day e.g if yesterday they had 10 deaths but another 17 were reported as catch up from previous days it's reported as 10.

I don't see why we should have a cut off, if the data comes through late because it's not released for a long time then it's important they're included in the data otherwise we'd just be making it up.
 
P.D. said:
I don't think any country knows exact figures but I'd wager the UK's are far closer to the truth than many countries. Spain and France didn't even include care homes in their initial stats, Italy too for a time. Spain even now reports their death toll as the number of deaths that happened the previous day on that exact day e.g if yesterday they had 10 deaths but another 17 were reported as catch up from previous days it's reported as 10.

I don't see why we should have a cut off, if the data comes through late because it's not released for a long time then it's important they're included in the data otherwise we'd just be making it up.
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fair.

but I don’t think other countries are having a review because you can’t recover from it in the U.K.

I think there has to be better visibility - you have dig to see the break down.

Question about a cut off - when we look at this and get figures - how long after the year do you think we should include other deaths as the counter cost - say cancer/heart issues?
 
Legohamster said:
fair.

but I don’t think other countries are having a review because you can’t recover from it in the U.K.

I think there has to be better visibility - you have dig to see the break down.

Question about a cut off - when we look at this and get figures - how long after the year do you think we should include other deaths as the counter cost - say cancer/heart issues?
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From what I read the other day about our figures being wrong it led me to believe we are over stating the figures whilst others are understating should it be carehomes or clasifying as heart issues etc rather than COVID

Did I misunderstand that?
 
Legohamster said:
fair.

but I don’t think other countries are having a review because you can’t recover from it in the U.K.

I think there has to be better visibility - you have dig to see the break down.

Question about a cut off - when we look at this and get figures - how long after the year do you think we should include other deaths as the counter cost - say cancer/heart issues?
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I agree - have you seen the dashboard (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) - the figures could be cooked but I'd say this is quite transparent information. No idea if any other countries have similar.

Agree on the cutoff, I was referring to cases where they don't get details of the death till much later because they have to contact next of kin etc first which can sometimes take months. Only when that process is complete can they be added to the statistics.

There should definitely be a cut off, it won't be 100% accurate but will give us something. Seems the lead time is 3/4 weeks from infection to death but some go on ventilators so a cut off around 6 weeks would seem appropriate. They could always maintain 2 data sets (with and without the cut off applied so people can see both).
 
P.D. said:
I agree - have you seen the dashboard (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) - the figures could be cooked but I'd say this is quite transparent information. No idea if any other countries have similar.

Agree on the cutoff, I was referring to cases where they don't get details of the death till much later because they have to contact next of kin etc first which can sometimes take months. Only when that process is complete can they be added to the statistics.

There should definitely be a cut off, it won't be 400% accurate but will give us something. Seems the lead time is 3/4 weeks from infection to death but some go on ventilators so a cut off around 6 weeks would seem appropriate. They could always maintain 2 data sets (with and without the cut off applied so people can see both).
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Grays_1890 said:
From what I read the other day about our figures being wrong it led me to believe we are over stating the figures whilst others are understating should it be carehomes or clasifying as heart issues etc rather than COVID

Did I misunderstand that?
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i think it could be bother.

I would say I trust others more than ours, they seem to have realised they had issues with reporting weeks ago and done something about it.
 
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