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Coronavirus

Parklaner81 said:
Weren't the government pilloried on here for placing too much emphasis on the first two of those measures earlier on in the piece?
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Yep the washing hands bit took a particular battering.

The idea of us not knowing enough to fully judge was also pilloried

The Government have made mistakes, no doubt, 100% they have but the idea in a national pandemic to wait to know the facts before jumping off a bridge in anger was lost on many and many of the accusations were false because of not knowing enough.

Even the gold standard WHO have been wrong
 
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Grays_1890 said:
So why was the death rate so high here? On this forum the death rate was attributed to the slowness of the lockdown?

If not that why so high?
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I don't know the answer to this. I guess we are still learning.

Parklaner81 said:
Weren't the government pilloried on here for placing too much emphasis on the first two of those measures earlier on in the piece?
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Not sure. I think they were criticised for being slow to lockdown when we had the opportunity to reduce infection rates like Germany.
 
Parklaner81 said:
They certainly were openly ridiculed for stressing the importance of handwashing. I could name names but I won't - I don't mean you.
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It's fair to say that people's politics and echo chambers largely defined their positions on the whole scenario. I don't think many of us can claim otherwise. I include myself in this although I have really tried to not let it sway me and I hope that has shown in my contributions to the discussion in this thread.
 
LutonSpurs said:
It's fair to say that people's politics and echo chambers largely defined their positions on the whole scenario. I don't think many of us can claim otherwise. I include myself in this although I have really tried to not let it sway me and I hope that has shown in my contributions to the discussion in this thread.
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Bingo.
 
LemonadeMoney said:
So would this suggest that the way to combat another wave/virus, is to immediately start with wearing face masks/social distancing measures/hand sanitising/isolate those at risk, but otherwise carry on as normal?
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No, i'd suggest giving the high level of unemployed jobs detecting and reporting the virus and building hospitals :D
 
Grays_1890 said:
So why was the death rate so high here? On this forum the death rate was attributed to the slowness of the lockdown?

If not that why so high?
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dumping infected people In homes

People not wearing masks/washing hands

Incorrectly reporting - anyone with covid that dies is a covid death

the whole lock down rather than common sense will be seen as a mistake when we have 15 percent unemployment/more deaths through other illnesses and the like.
 
Legohamster said:
dumping infected people In homes

People not wearing masks/washing hands

Incorrectly reporting - anyone with covid that dies is a covid death

the whole lock down rather than common sense will be seen as a mistake when we have 15 percent unemployment/more deaths through other illnesses and the like.
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The issue with the lockdown was that a large majority wanted it rather than a common sense approach, this forum was a HUGE hotbed for that mindset, was probably 2/3 of us championing a different approach. So not to say who was right or wrong (I still maintain we are months from knowing) they bowed to popular belief.

The carehome stuff was a huge mistake HUGE

A lot of other issues come from personal responsibility, washing hands and wearing masks, I’ve seeen 4 fights in one week for people refusing to wear masks on transport.
 
Grays_1890 said:
The issue with the lockdown was that a large majority wanted it rather than a common sense approach, this forum was a HUGE hotbed for that mindset, was probably 2/3 of us championing a different approach. So not to say who was right or wrong (I still maintain we are months from knowing) they bowed to popular belief.

The carehome stuff was a huge mistake HUGE

A lot of other issues come from personal responsibility, washing hands and wearing masks, I’ve seeen 4 fights in one week for people refusing to wear masks on transport.
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scaremongering and the failure to communicate the actual risks to groups was the meltdown

we absolutely over reacted to this, because of what was happening in Italy without actually looking at the data and how best to do this.

then you have pillocks like Neil Ferguson spouting another horrible prediction (how was this man still in Sage) that people picked up on - how close are Sweden to the 90k deaths?

A shielding of sorts was needed, but not a complete shut down.

There are going to be a lot of angry people in 6 months who have lost people to the virus through poor shielding and those that have lost loved ones from cancer
 
I read it. Very interesting.

So largely the death rate and caseload in a country was linked strongly to the median age, prevalence of obesity and increased wealth. And number of number of nurses per patient- factors outside the governments response.

Transmission (r) was flattened by locking down. But it seems the shape of the epemiological curve was pretty much baked in the pie once the virus had entered.

Note also that lockdown strongly improved rates of recovery. Whilst the failure to close borders data is compromised by the lag in the data used in the sample of countries, and may explain why this indicates a negative link to the caseload per million.

They seem at a bit of loss to understand the evidence that smokers seem to have lower case prevalence and decreased mortality rates.

So to be safe. Be young, poor, smoke and thin and live amongst nurses.

Don’t be fat, rich and lazy and live amongst similar folk.

But the governments failures in relation to cases are that an earlier lockdown may have improved rates of recovery (survival).
 
Grays_1890 said:
The issue with the lockdown was that a large majority wanted it rather than a common sense approach, this forum was a HUGE hotbed for that mindset, was probably 2/3 of us championing a different approach. So not to say who was right or wrong (I still maintain we are months from knowing) they bowed to popular belief.

The carehome stuff was a huge mistake HUGE

A lot of other issues come from personal responsibility, washing hands and wearing masks, I’ve seeen 4 fights in one week for people refusing to wear masks on transport.
Click to expand...

Legohamster said:
scaremongering and the failure to communicate the actual risks to groups was the meltdown

we absolutely over reacted to this, because of what was happening in Italy without actually looking at the data and how best to do this.

then you have pillocks like Neil Ferguson spouting another horrible prediction (how was this man still in Sage) that people picked up on - how close are Sweden to the 90k deaths?

A shielding of sorts was needed, but not a complete shut down.

There are going to be a lot of angry people in 6 months who have lost people to the virus through poor shielding and those that have lost loved ones from cancer
Click to expand...

A big problem for the UK is that we didn’t do anything properly.

We gave up on contact tracing.

We locked down later than almost everyone else - hence we have higher death rates per million than almost any other country in the world.

Our ‘lockdown’ wasn’t anything like as strict as in other European countries. Again, this affected the death rate and the rate at which the disease declined.

We made a mess of protecting care homes.

Our test and trace system continues to perform poorly which means that we are more likely to be in a worrying position come winter.

All of this has sapped public confidence and means that a lot of people are now hesitant about resuming anything resembling normal life - with continuing knock-on effects on the economy.

Letting the virus run rampant is an option - but it doesn’t look a particularly appealing one given the current situation in the US.
 
johnola said:
I read it. Very interesting.

So largely the death rate and caseload in a country was linked strongly to the median age, prevalence of obesity and increased wealth. And number of number of nurses per patient- factors outside the governments response.

Transmission (r) was flattened by locking down. But it seems the shape of the epemiological curve was pretty much baked in the pie once the virus had entered.

Note also that lockdown strongly improved rates of recovery. Whilst the failure to close borders data is compromised by the lag in the data used in the sample of countries, and may explain why this indicates a negative link to the caseload per million.

They seem at a bit of loss to understand the evidence that smokers seem to have lower case prevalence and decreased mortality rates.

So to be safe. Be young, poor, smoke and thin and live amongst nurses.

Don’t be fat, rich and lazy and live amongst similar folk.

But the governments failures in relation to cases are that an earlier lockdown may have improved rates of recovery (survival).
Click to expand...

Not sure the number of nurses per patient can be considered outside the government’s response.
 
Mikey10 said:
A big problem for the UK is that we didn’t do anything properly.

We gave up on contact tracing.

We locked down later than almost everyone else - hence we have higher death rates per million than almost any other country in the world.

Our ‘lockdown’ wasn’t anything like as strict as in other European countries. Again, this affected the death rate and the rate at which the disease declined.

We made a mess of protecting care homes.

Our test and trace system continues to perform poorly which means that we are more likely to be in a worrying position come winter.

All of this has sapped public confidence and means that a lot of people are now hesitant about resuming anything resembling normal life - with continuing knock-on effects on the economy.

Letting the virus run rampant is an option - but it doesn’t look a particularly appealing one given the current situation in the US.
Click to expand...

I agree with all of that btw

I don’t think anyone but the maddest anti lockdowners would say nothing should have been done

but social distancing/masks/WFH and basic hygiene was the answer.
 
Legohamster said:
scaremongering and the failure to communicate the actual risks to groups was the meltdown

we absolutely over reacted to this, because of what was happening in Italy without actually looking at the data and how best to do this.

then you have pillocks like Neil Ferguson spouting another horrible prediction (how was this man still in Sage) that people picked up on - how close are Sweden to the 90k deaths?

A shielding of sorts was needed, but not a complete shut down.

There are going to be a lot of angry people in 6 months who have lost people to the virus through poor shielding and those that have lost loved ones from cancer
Click to expand...

Ferguson’s model seemed to preclude individuals from changing their behaviour in the face of a pandemic of a killer virus. An oversight which I think you share.
 
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