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Coronavirus

Grays_1890 said:
The reason it hasn’t happened is one, we were going to and the uproar was so great the Government changed it’s mind (there are examples on here at the start where people wanted lockdown over Sweden style)
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I’m not sure the Swedish model is really proving to be that successful as time goes on.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html


https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-children-lockdown-1502548

As said, there are no easy answers.

I still don’t think, though, that isolating potentially millions of people for an extended period would ever work for multiple reasons; hence the reason it doesn’t seem to be featuring in any country in the world as a serious governmental response.
 
Legohamster said:
I don’t think anyone said it was easy?

If we stay as we are people die and the economy dies taking more people.

Go in the direction I’m suggesting and the economy doesn’t and potentially less people die in the long run.

We have to be real, this thing has been with us at least a month earlier than we thought. Thousands, of not millions have had it and it didn’t over work the NHS -

Im thinking some governments will be regretting the lockdown behind the scenes rather than shielding when the damage becomes clear and the unemployment rate rockets and being still die.

You can make care homes no go areas, or test visitors before they arrive/antibody tests before visits etc

People are going to be lockdown which ever way you do it.
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I am still struggling to understand why there isn't enough resilience in the British economy to survive 12 weeks of slowdown. I get it is hard to sustain for many months but it's not even been 12 weeks and it's like we are on the brink of collapse? Especially with the government propping up many business sectors and other businesses changing their operations to adapt to the change. Is it because there is so much debt in the economy?
 
Grays_1890 said:
Yep, there are way we can make this work and we may have made it sound over simplistic and it will be tough however this is a football forum, I’m sure those that can will plan it out to make it work.

At the end of the day the fact we are able to categorise who suffers most from this is a win, it’s not us discriminating it’s fact and what is the point of collecting all this statistical data and not using it.

We tried the scientific route and we should continue to take advice but all of the data points overwhelmingly to who this really is a danger too.

There was a great article I posted on here where the guy said these are all difficult conversations to have when your looking at deaths but they are not conversation you should shy away from.
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Lots of businesses are already leveraged up and as for the corporate bond market, wobbly as f.ck.
 
Robspur12 said:
I am still struggling to understand why there isn't enough resilience in the British economy to survive 12 weeks of slowdown. I get it is hard to sustain for many months but it's not even been 12 weeks and it's like we are on the brink of collapse? Especially with the government propping up many business sectors and other businesses changing their operations to adapt to the change. Is it because there is so much debt in the economy?
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Margins in business are small and I’m not sure of the percentage but there must be a huge huge huge number of companies turning zero profit, that’s going to hurt anyone.

The recreation, retail and hospitality sector has millions tied up in stock, my mate owns 8 pubs and they were given no official warning on lockdown and his pubs were sitting on drink and food with 6 hour notice to close, that hurt him bad.

As Scara said a while back, many companies running zero turnover, it’s going to kills off a lot of business.

Many companies navigate uncertain future when the worlds operating normally, Pizza express as one example that popped up in my mind, there are many others.

I can’t remember the figures for tourism in the U.K. but I think it ranks high in terms of income to the U.K. maybe top 5, that’s dead and is way off returning. As is outgoing tourism, case in example Virgin which hasn’t paid tax for two years in the good days.

The U.K. event industry is a billion pound industry, gone overnight and won’t come back soon due to convening numbers needing to be high due to nature of the business.

And every business has a knock of effect you don’t always realise, the chain of devastation is insane. The company supplying pies to Emirates Marketing Project again just an example can’t survive now, you wouldn’t always think of the next in line to die off due to football not happening but it’s an example of the domino crash.

Like people keep saying there are no easy answers here, I don’t have them, hell I could be wrong but the last thing in my mind we can allow to happen now is let the economy crash on top of the death tolls.

Do we worry about a year of devastation or 40 due to recover
 
Mikey10 said:
I’m not sure the Swedish model is really proving to be that successful as time goes on.

I still don’t think, though, that isolating potentially millions of people for an extended period would ever work for multiple reasons; hence the reason it doesn’t seem to be featuring in any country in the world as a serious governmental response.
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I think with Sweden like other countries they win in some aspects lose in others. Their leaders decided what meant more in the win lose column in the long term.

Don’t take this in any negative tone because it’s not meant it, just sometimes hard to verbalise on here but based on your last paragraph you say you can’t lock down large numbers but if I’m getting it right your actually suggesting we all stay locked down? Are you saying it’s an al or nothing decision ?
 
scaramanga said:
An interesting analysis of the coding methods used by the Imperial lot:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Doesn't make for great reading. Also this:
https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues
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I obviously don’t see behind the scenes.

But why the hell are we using an “expert” that hasn’t been wrong in the past but so wildly wrong picking random numbers out of a bag would have been more accurate than his predictions.

The mans a bit of a joke.
 
Robspur12 said:
I am still struggling to understand why there isn't enough resilience in the British economy to survive 12 weeks of slowdown. I get it is hard to sustain for many months but it's not even been 12 weeks and it's like we are on the brink of collapse? Especially with the government propping up many business sectors and other businesses changing their operations to adapt to the change. Is it because there is so much debt in the economy?
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No cash flow that’s killing companies

Plus masses of refunds and outgoings without any incoming

Restaurants still need to pay rent etc

Wasted stock that has to be paid for - using Asda as an example every thing is ordered months in advance and non Changeable based on previous years demand - so imagine the waste that would bring in and the cost smaller business can’t cover.

Also the time of the lockdown - this has happened over Easter/Bank holidays and school holidays time of year shops/restaurants/UK hotels etc would have been rammed

Plus not everyone has been able to furlough staff/get grant.
 
Grays_1890 said:
Margins in business are small and I’m not sure of the percentage but there must be a huge huge huge number of companies turning zero profit, that’s going to hurt anyone.

The recreation, retail and hospitality sector has millions tied up in stock, my mate owns 8 pubs and they were given no official warning on lockdown and his pubs were sitting on drink and food with 6 hour notice to close, that hurt him bad.

As Scara said a while back, many companies running zero turnover, it’s going to kills off a lot of business.

Many companies navigate uncertain future when the worlds operating normally, Pizza express as one example that popped up in my mind, there are many others.

I can’t remember the figures for tourism in the U.K. but I think it ranks high in terms of income to the U.K. maybe top 5, that’s dead and is way off returning. As is outgoing tourism, case in example Virgin which hasn’t paid tax for two years in the good days.

The U.K. event industry is a billion pound industry, gone overnight and won’t come back soon due to convening numbers needing to be high due to nature of the business.

And every business has a knock of effect you don’t always realise, The nickname that will never catch on of devastation is insane. The company supplying pies to Emirates Marketing Project again just an example can’t survive now, you wouldn’t always think of the next in line to die off due to football not happening but it’s an example of the domino crash.

Like people keep saying there are no easy answers here, I don’t have them, hell I could be wrong but the last thing in my mind we can allow to happen now is let the economy crash on top of the death tolls.

Do we worry about a year of devastation or 40 due to recover
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But there is lots of Government support out there at the moment to cushion small and medium sized businesses. Food businesses can still operate but just on a takeaway basis. Food retailers should be making a lot of money. The tourism industry, the leisure industry will pick up quickly after this. We had high employment so people should have had more money in their pockets in theory.
I get if it's months and months or the government subsidies run out but it's not even 12 weeks! I think the economy doom mongerers are worse than the virus ones. I have literally loads of mates who are sitting on their furloughed arses sending WhatsApp messages to ease their boredom. I also get that many businesses will not be making the same money as before but surely they can ride out at least 12 weeks?
 
Robspur12 said:
But there is lots of Government support out there at the moment to cushion small and medium sized businesses. Food businesses can still operate but just on a takeaway basis. Food retailers should be making a lot of money. The tourism industry, the leisure industry will pick up quickly after this. We had high employment so people should have had more money in their pockets in theory.
I get if it's months and months or the government subsidies run out but it's not even 12 weeks! I think the economy doom mongerers are worse than the virus ones. I have literally loads of mates who are sitting on their furloughed arses sending WhatsApp messages to ease their boredom. I also get that many businesses will not be making the same money as before but surely they can ride out at least 12 weeks?
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Being furloughed pays out a max of £2,500 per month, a lot of people have vastly higher fixed outgoings than that and people that do have money are choosing to save it as they don't know when things will get back to normal and there's a risk they could be out of a job at somepoint. That cycle multiplies across millions of workers and caused a mass slowdown and of course I'd guess over half the workforce live paycheck to paycheck.
 
Robspur12 said:
But there is lots of Government support out there at the moment to cushion small and medium sized businesses. Food businesses can still operate but just on a takeaway basis. Food retailers should be making a lot of money. The tourism industry, the leisure industry will pick up quickly after this. We had high employment so people should have had more money in their pockets in theory.
I get if it's months and months or the government subsidies run out but it's not even 12 weeks! I think the economy doom mongerers are worse than the virus ones. I have literally loads of mates who are sitting on their furloughed arses sending WhatsApp messages to ease their boredom. I also get that many businesses will not be making the same money as before but surely they can ride out at least 12 weeks?
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People are not spending money because the unemployment rate is going up everyday so they are saving.

There is support out there, but none of it replaces actual buying and selling of goods I’m afraid, use virgin - wages covered - great. Having to park 40 planes has already cost more than triple the amount saved.
 
Robspur12 said:
But there is lots of Government support out there at the moment to cushion small and medium sized businesses. Food businesses can still operate but just on a takeaway basis. Food retailers should be making a lot of money. The tourism industry, the leisure industry will pick up quickly after this. We had high employment so people should have had more money in their pockets in theory.
I get if it's months and months or the government subsidies run out but it's not even 12 weeks! I think the economy doom mongerers are worse than the virus ones. I have literally loads of mates who are sitting on their furloughed arses sending WhatsApp messages to ease their boredom. I also get that many businesses will not be making the same money as before but surely they can ride out at least 12 weeks?
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Yeh support is great I get that but like someone said above people are saving or if you are like my mates and colleagues your getting £2200 of your wages to cover your mortgage, rent, bills, food etc, it’s not sustainable.

Not all food establishments can be takeaways, it’s not essential travel to go to eateries in the city for example to open and the cities so quiet there is no business so even if they can open half their shops can’t. Also you cannibalise existing take aways and the business does not spread.

What happens in 12 weeks in your opinion that doesn’t happen now in your opinion?
 
P.D. said:
Being furloughed pays out a max of £2,500 per month, a lot of people have vastly higher fixed outgoings than that and people that do have money are choosing to save it as they don't know when things will get back to normal and there's a risk they could be out of a job at somepoint. That cycle multiplies across millions of workers and caused a mass slowdown and of course I'd guess over half the workforce live paycheck to paycheck.
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It wouldn't cover my mortgage and bills.
 
Watched Sky News tonight and seen loads of social media posts that suggests people think or thought Boris was relaxing rules Monday and thought "whats 3 days difference"

96575270_10163474627960142_7129078492209086464_o.jpg
 
Crazy to think that people would 'struggle' to live on £2500/month.
They easily could, but perhaps a re-evaluation of lifestyle would be in order.
 
Legohamster said:
You can extend the furlough for the at risk which will stop us paying out billions - easy to prove via doctors and the older don’t work.

“As for ‘personal choice and responsibility’, there wouldn’t be much choice for many in vulnerable groups. They’d have to go to work to earn money to survive. And it wouldn’t be their ‘feelings’ on the line - it would potentially be their lives.“

It’s easier and cheaper to look after these finically than covering everyone which we are currently doing and you can cover these people longer.

How about those that are needing money to survive now? Businesses going bust?

Those people are in the majority I’m afraid and should be treated like it - whilst looking after the at risk of course.
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Whose fat enough? Whose heart is weak enough? Who is measuring these categories? Who decides vulnerability? Start pondering who defines these things and it can all get weird depending on whose in charge.

I have been saying for weeks that people cannot have all of guaranteed safety, wealth and convenience. We are seeing that in play now IMO...
 
Grays_1890 said:
Yep, there are way we can make this work and we may have made it sound over simplistic and it will be tough however this is a football forum, I’m sure those that can will plan it out to make it work.

At the end of the day the fact we are able to categorise who suffers most from this is a win, it’s not us discriminating it’s fact and what is the point of collecting all this statistical data and not using it.

We tried the scientific route and we should continue to take advice but all of the data points overwhelmingly to who this really is a danger too.

There was a great article I posted on here where the guy said these are all difficult conversations to have when your looking at deaths but they are not conversation you should shy away from.
Click to expand...

But that is the point.
We don't know and don't have enough information as it is an evolving database.

Poor health and pre-existing conditions absolutely would contribute because of immune system weaknesses which sees these categories often having common colds and the like thus not allowing robust defence on two counts. Health management is the key. You could be the fittest leanest person in the world, if you have gingivitis for example, if you have a gum disease, your immune system is fighting daily (this can also affect even healthy hearts BTW). There are so many potential factors. Let's broaden the "vulnerable" to embrace anyone who smokes and anyone who drinks more than four units a week. We have probably dispensed with more than half the core workers in the country.

We need more info.
Until then every move will bring some darkness. I am not saying what approach should be taken as human nature will decide regardless, not to mention the way our world is set up economically.
 
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