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Coronavirus

Parklaner81 said:
So this article references a letter written 'to the UK' from Italy on 27th March, with the underlying suggestion that this represented some great unheeded warning...

...but the UK went into lockdown on 23rd March?
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We were all watching the tragedy in Italy unfold for at least a fortnight before that - it was dominating the news every night.

I’ve just listened to two experts on 5Live discussing the South Korean model as the UK’s route out of this, which makes me wonder why we didn’t follow it from the beginning.
 
Mikey10 said:
We were all watching the tragedy in Italy unfold for at least a fortnight before that - it was dominating the news every night.

I’ve just listened to two experts on 5Live discussing the South Korean model as the UK’s route out of this, which makes me wonder why we didn’t follow it from the beginning.
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I kind of agree with this and it looks like accepted wisdom will be to follow the South Korea model in future. But then you see Sweden is not as bad as expected and they remained quite open. Im not sure one size fits all, two of the worst hit places are London and New York and they are two of the most open global cities with travellers coming in and out and big drivers of those countries economies.

Certainly this will be a good practise run for the Big One....
 
Rorschach said:
This is a superb article, albeit a bit long, charting the course of the pandemic to date and the botched US response to it.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-president-coronavirus-plague-982150/
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I see America's response as truly botched. I few ours as a little slow and other European countries as a little quicker but panicked. The only reason I can see why America acting the way they have is because of the nutter in charge over there.
 
Mikey10 said:
We were all watching the tragedy in Italy unfold for at least a fortnight before that - it was dominating the news every night.

I’ve just listened to two experts on 5Live discussing the South Korean model as the UK’s route out of this, which makes me wonder why we didn’t follow it from the beginning.
Click to expand...

I don't entirely disagree. But it still begs the question why, if the way forward were so clear and obvious the author needed to undermine his own case by citing such flimsy supporting 'evidence'.
 
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Parklaner81 said:
So this article references a letter written 'to the UK' from Italy on 27th March, with the underlying suggestion that this represented some great unheeded warning...

...but the UK went into lockdown on 23rd March?
Click to expand...
A letter from an author though. I mean, that's only one place below chiropractor in terms of relevant knowledge.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
I see America's response as truly botched. I few ours as a little slow and other European countries as a little quicker but panicked. The only reason I can see why America acting the way they have is because of the nutter in charge over there.
Click to expand...
America's response is a catalog of mistakes, most derived from Trump in some fashion but not all. That article is truly an excellent piece if you can spare the time.

As for the UK, it is not as bad as the US. None will be as bad as the US in the end, but it is also a monumental catastrophe whatever way you dice it. I know some will cast this as an anti-governmental spin. Maybe there is some partisanship in some of the commentary but that doesn't hide the fact that the UK has botched their response too. Truly botched it, and thousands will die as a result. The UK media should be screaming blue murder on full volume every day IMHO.

I know you have Irish family members, right? So this apples to apples comparison projects up 2.5 times more fatalities in the UK compared to Ireland from a comparable starting point. Also well worth a read...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1249127908876128259
 
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Rorschach said:
America's response is a catalog of mistakes, most dreived from Trump in some fashion but not all. That article is truly an excellent piece if you can spare the time.

As for the UK, it is not as bad as the US. None will be as bad as the US in the end, but it is also a monumental catastrophe whatever way you dice it. I know some will cast this as an anti-governmental spin. Maybe there is some partisanship in some of the commentary but that doesn't hide the fact that the UK has botched their response too. Truly botched it, and thousands will die as a result. The UK media should be screaming blue murder on full volume every day IMHO.

I know you have Irish family members, right? So this apples to apples comparison projects up 2.5 times more fatalities in the UK compared to Ireland from a comparable starting point. Also well worth a read...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1249127908876128259
Click to expand...

I read through this last night, really good read.

Also, in before the Stereophonics/Coranavirus hilarity ensues.
 
This is definitely a right wing forum. it ranges from a bona fide fascist, through to Kool Aid drinking neo liberals, some small l liberals and maybe three or four genuine leftists.
 
Kandi, thanks for the link to the twitter thread on test result reliability- very interesting and it is actually quite easy to understand.

What is not, is how they determine the sensitivity and specificity to calculate the number of true positives plus false positives we would expect to see in a population.

As that seems intractable on the face of it as we are talking about unreliability.

= via some complex probability models. Over my head anyway.

Good to learn something new - thanks.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Not exactly what I was looking for, but Here's a thread about anti-body tests, and why they do not work very well at this time, because not enough people have been infected yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1248467731545911296

It's really complicated, but the short version is that it's pretty much useless at this point. The uncertainty is far to high.
Click to expand...

This is a good thread, i was going to make a taco of myself trying to explain why it will only be useful towards the end of the year when lots more people have had it, like 60%
 
Rorschach said:
America's response is a catalog of mistakes, most derived from Trump in some fashion but not all. That article is truly an excellent piece if you can spare the time.

As for the UK, it is not as bad as the US. None will be as bad as the US in the end, but it is also a monumental catastrophe whatever way you dice it. I know some will cast this as an anti-governmental spin. Maybe there is some partisanship in some of the commentary but that doesn't hide the fact that the UK has botched their response too. Truly botched it, and thousands will die as a result. The UK media should be screaming blue murder on full volume every day IMHO.

I know you have Irish family members, right? So this apples to apples comparison projects up 2.5 times more fatalities in the UK compared to Ireland from a comparable starting point. Also well worth a read...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1249127908876128259
Click to expand...
Romania 21.4 .....impressive.
 
Rorschach said:
America's response is a catalog of mistakes, most derived from Trump in some fashion but not all. That article is truly an excellent piece if you can spare the time.

As for the UK, it is not as bad as the US. None will be as bad as the US in the end, but it is also a monumental catastrophe whatever way you dice it. I know some will cast this as an anti-governmental spin. Maybe there is some partisanship in some of the commentary but that doesn't hide the fact that the UK has botched their response too. Truly botched it, and thousands will die as a result. The UK media should be screaming blue murder on full volume every day IMHO.

I know you have Irish family members, right? So this apples to apples comparison projects up 2.5 times more fatalities in the UK compared to Ireland from a comparable starting point. Also well worth a read...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1249127908876128259
Click to expand...

The wife is Irish, her lovely family are all Irish.

I have agreed we were slow to act but that is as much on the government advisers then the government actually more so. Because governments need to take advice from their advisors.

We can not yet say that it is completely wrong because if the is not a widespread vaccine for a year maybe herd immunity is best after all.

I dont know if that lady on Twitter is a reporter as i refuse to sign up to that awful thing. But i agree holding Cheltenham while seeing what was going on in Italy seemed very odd.

But the whole tone of what she wrote had the smell of the usual anti English sentiment you so often see from so many around the world.

As i have said London and New York two cities hardest hit are the two most open in the world. The has to be a trade off between the lives lost in the pandemic and the lives lost because of the recession.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Not exactly what I was looking for, but Here's a thread about anti-body tests, and why they do not work very well at this time, because not enough people have been infected yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1248467731545911296

It's really complicated, but the short version is that it's pretty much useless at this point. The uncertainty is far to high.
Click to expand...
I've been a massive advocate of testing being an immediate tool to provide us with some data to cut thru the fog of this virus.

This kind of twitter thread is useful and informative(rather than bitchy:)) and although there are undoubtedly strides being made shows that there is nothing good about a bad test.

I thought the test to see if you HAVE it was pretty reliable?

The other element that may have to be factored into the importance of test reliability is the consequence of, lets say, a false positive result (talking antibody test here).
Say for example, the test is 90% reliable but issues a false positive result to say a 25 year old, that 25 year old is then wrongly assumed ok to return to normal life. However if we have data by then that a 25 year old has a 0.0001% chance of dying in hospital from catching Covid then at some point the combined risk becomes acceptable?

Of course if the 25year old goes back to work in a care home....thats a different matter.

The old and vulnerable are going to have to isolate for a long long while methinks? (imagine if the vulnerable group were 18-40:eek:)

i'm kinda thinking out load here.......so jump on me if you wish
 
Parklaner81 said:
I don't entirely disagree. But it still begs the question why, if the way forward were so clear and obvious the author needed to undermine his own case by citing such flimsy supporting 'evidence'.
Click to expand...

scaramanga said:
A letter from an author though. I mean, that's only one place below chiropractor in terms of relevant knowledge.
Click to expand...

The letter was one tiny element of the piece - but do focus on that (which is still relevant) and avoid the twenty other awkward truths which the article contains for the government.

Anyway, I feel a bit like @Hootnow on this now, and am done posting on it. If people can’t see what’s going on then they are either Daily Mail reading numpties or have made the decision to ignore the evidence.

I’ll look forward to posting in the football forums once it starts up again - probably around January 2027. :D
 
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