• Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara

Christian Benteke

Bedfordspurs said:
The problem with the regression logic in football is that it doesn't take into account experience, fitness and age.

If you want to apply it you can write off Costas only good season before this one. Yet he really does look the real deal doesn't he???

You cannot apply mathematical rules cart Blanche in a sport with so many variables including some of the above, plus who they are playing with and for (more chances/teams defending more/defensive teams), weather (yep... Some players play better in hotter/colder climates), and then you get the softer ones such as motivation and drive

I get the logic, hell I use it a lot when forecasting and making reccomendations to clients but I would not use it as a rule in sport
Click to expand...

Thank you. The voice of reason.
 
You both seem to be ignoring that no one has said it's an exact science - it's a balance of probabilities
 
Bedfordspurs said:
The problem with the regression logic in football is that it doesn't take into account experience, fitness and age.

If you want to apply it you can write off Costas only good season before this one. Yet he really does look the real deal doesn't he???

You cannot apply mathematical rules cart Blanche in a sport with so many variables including some of the above, plus who they are playing with and for (more chances/teams defending more/defensive teams), weather (yep... Some players play better in hotter/colder climates), and then you get the softer ones such as motivation and drive

I get the logic, hell I use it a lot when forecasting and making reccomendations to clients but I would not use it as a rule in sport
Click to expand...
Pretty much every top Premier League and European club disagrees with you. Clubs are investing a fortune in analysts to help improve their players, improve recruitment and analyse opponents.
 
Pirate55 said:
As the article concludes "you can have a lucky day, but you cant have a lucky career". That is why the regression to mean theory cannot be used as a forecast only as a retrospective tool. Great players continue to improve throughout their careers. At the outset, no-one can know what their "mean" is. That is the point.
Click to expand...

Regression cannot be used for forecast?

Pirate, you don't go by the moniker m1ndless on another forum by any chance do you? ;)
 
milo said:
Pretty much every top Premier League and European club disagrees with you. Clubs are investing a fortune in analysts to help improve their players, improve recruitment and analyse opponents.
Click to expand...

Yes they are... But their not using regression theory

Their using current variables

What good is stats and analysis of a team in September against te same team in December after 18 games and probably with a different core group due to all the variables

I've met plenty of coaches and plenty of mathematicians... There logic behind what they do is polar opposites

Maths and stats is a science. Football is far from a science

Stats predict probability and the bigger the sample the more accurate the probability... We all agree on that?

With a player though you have all the variables I highlighted earlier which are not statistically qualifiable e.g motivation, weather, match fitness

Even pitch side is a variable as it isn't consistant

I know clubs employ the people to do the analysis but their just part of a bigger process
 
Frank Lampard and Ian Wright would have failed this logic, as would Diego Costa

There are plenty who would have fitted it yet failed too
 
All of these stats originated from Baseball, a sport than can be 95% explained by numbers. A .300 hitter IS better than a .250 hitter, there's no arguing it, there's little in the way of variables. Scara always does this, if there's a player/manager/team/whatever he isn't a fan of, he busts out some useless numbers, if they're doing well and disproving him it's always "variance, they'll regress to the mean soon enough". These stats only came about from Americans trying to understand football, they hate that there's no measure that will tell them player A > player B. I haven't even bothered to read through this thread because every thread Scara starts posting in goes the same way, but I bet these stats haven't once taken into consideration Benteke's stop-start career for the past 18 months or that he's playing for the most offensively challenged side in the whole of Europe.
 
Rossi22 said:
All of these stats originated from Baseball, a sport than can be 95% explained by numbers. A .300 hitter IS better than a .250 hitter, there's no arguing it, there's little in the way of variables. Scara always does this, if there's a player/manager/team/whatever he isn't a fan of, he busts out some useless numbers, if they're doing well and disproving him it's always "variance, they'll regress to the mean soon enough". These stats only came about from Americans trying to understand football, they hate that there's no measure that will tell them player A > player B. I haven't even bothered to read through this thread because every thread Scara starts posting in goes the same way, but I bet these stats haven't once taken into consideration Benteke's stop-start career for the past 18 months or that he's playing for the most offensively challenged side in the whole of Europe.
Click to expand...

Nobody has posted any stats. We're talking about universal rules.
 
]
milo said:
I don't think that Scara or anyone else has said that regression to mean can be used to forecast, we are talking about probability not prediction.

Obviously with Kane the sample size is too small to say.

With regards to very good players and regression, you might find this answers that better than I can (which goes back the curse of Sports Illustrated point I made earlier)

http://whywereason.com/2011/06/25/the-myth-of-the-si-jinx/
Click to expand...

Even Milo doesn't think you can use it for prediction or forecast!
 
Pirate55 said:
]

Even Milo doesn't think you can use it for prediction or forecast!
Click to expand...
You are making a straw man argument. No one has said that it can. What it can be used for is looking at the probability of good form being sustainable or an outlier.
 
milo said:
You are making a straw man argument. No one has said that it can. What it can be used for is looking at the probability of good form being sustainable or an outlier.
Click to expand...

I think you will find Scara thinks it can - see above.
 
scaramanga said:
You mean regression? Of course.
Click to expand...

How do you know what the class of a 24yr old player is? Surely you can only make that judgement at the end of their career? What about Torres? What's his class? At what point did his run of terrible form, stop being form? What's the time frame? What's Kane's class? Is he going to regress soon? Maintain it? Get better? What does the big book of numbers say?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back