The Wall Street Journal is also reporting that the live voting data produced by VoteCastr is moving the markets.
The WSJ’s Paul Vigna explains:
It’s a first for traders, and for the news media. It has been a longstanding policy for mainstream media to not report on exit-polling data while polls are still open on Election Day, so as to avoid discouraging voters in western states from voting.
Today, though, websites Vice and Slate plan on providing what they are characterizing as “live” voting projections throughout the day.
To be sure, this is an experiment, and a controversial one. Regardless, the numbers are being put out there, and the market is noticing. With the Slate data showing
Hillary Clinton leading in several key swing states, stocks have shot higher and bonds have fallen.
Right now,
VoteCastr are giving Clinton a four point lead in the crucial state of Florida, with 48% of support vs Trump’s 44%. If the Democrats do claim Florida, it’s hard to see a Republican victory.
BUT (and it’s a big one),
realtime polling forecasts are still somewhat experimental. If early voters aren’t representative of the electorate, then their projections could be skewed, for example.